Amazon 是长期买入标的：电商和广告在增长，但近期股价取决于 AWS。AWS 增速已从 28% 升至 37%；下一季度，39–44% 可能令股价下跌，44–47% 大致持平，高于 48% 则会推动其突破 275。忽略 AWS 的小幅差异，着眼长期。

And we'll talk about the potential scenarios for AMD stock, Meta, Celsius, ELF, SoFi, and Amazon.

They invested heavily in stocks like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google, McDougal, right? Tesla and all such stocks.

The next thing is Amazon. Then we'll discuss three great easy profit opportunities in the stock market right now, stocks that I do n't own, okay ? Amazon. So, this is a huge position I have in the public account.

I think it's the third or fourth largest position in the public account, right? Because AMD is clearly the biggest and then Meta. And I think Amazon is in the third or fourth largest position, right ?

I have a $430,000 position in Amazon and have made a profit of $184,000 on this stock so far. It gave me very, very good results, right?

Now, what you have to understand about Amazon is that they have a very large business , right? And they have three very large businesses. One is the e- commerce business, those packages that you always order and your wife or husband always orders, right?

Their business is only getting bigger and people are getting used to the idea that if they need something, they go to Amazon. Oh, I need a roll of tape, Amazon. Oh, I even need something like food.

Many people have started buying more food than before. I even buy a lot of drinks or things like that from Amazon now , because I think, is it really necessary to go to Cusco and walk a mile and a half ?

I thought, "No way, I'll just order it from Amazon." Yes, I have to spend a little more money, but I don't enjoy the time wasted on that task anymore , do I? The thing about walking around inside the Costco store.

And so, I now order many drinks from Amazon. However, the e-commerce business is constantly growing. I do n't need to tell you that again, right?

Their second biggest business is the advertising business. That is also growing very quickly. Especially in the case of Amazon Prime Video, they are constantly buying more content and making it more relevant, so they can show you ads.

Besides, they make a lot of money from the sponsored posts you see every time you go to Amazon. You search for something, right ? When you search for solar lights for your backyard, you come across a lot of sponsored posts , right ?

They make a lot of money from there because you click on it, then buy the product, and the company that makes that product pays a fee for that click. That's great, isn't it?

But the truth is. The two businesses I mentioned are very important to Amazon's long-term future, but they have no impact on short-term share price movements. It is completely dependent on AWS.

People are not even thinking about e- commerce business anymore. People do n't even pay attention to the advertising business anymore. People are not too concerned about the company's overall revenue or earnings per share.

Everything now revolves around AWS. Why? Why do you think Amazon is spending so much money building this massive infrastructure? This is for expanding AWS business, right? And the AWS business has historically been a very profitable aspect of Amazon's business, right ?

Recently, AWS's growth increased from 28% to 37% in the last quarter. That is, we are talking about a full nine percentage points, right? AWS growth is up 900 basis points, right ?

So, if they achieve growth between 39 and 44 percent in the next quarter , right ? This will be seen as a disappointment , as even at its highest level, their AWS growth will only be seven percentage points higher.

So, this will be seen as a defeat. No, you ca n't do that, right? Especially compared to that quarter last year , when their revenue growth was only 20 percent. Therefore, 39 to 44 percent is by no means enough.

If their results are around this, Amazon's stock price will likely fall.

In the case of 44 to 47 percent, there will be no significant reaction , maybe slightly up or down. By slightly up or down, I mean a fluctuation of within 5 percent.

If AWS growth exceeds 48 percent , we will go above 275. Because once you achieve growth above 48 percent, people will assume that we are going well above 50 percent. And if we can talk about more than 50 percent growth in AWS , it is incredible, because this business is very big.

Look at their current numbers. They are now doing multi-million dollar business every quarter on AWS. So, if we're talking about over 50 percent growth in this business , people will think, "Where is the end of this ?"

Will we reach 60 percent? Will we get 70 percent growth in AWS despite it being such a huge business? And what will be the impact on Amazon's long-term margins and profits? I mean , are we talking about a trillion dollar a year business?

Speaking of revenue, can we imagine a net income of $250 to $400 billion per year from AWS alone? We are not talking about e-commerce or the advertising business here.

But at the end of the day, with stocks like Amazon , as I said with Celsius, be careful not to get caught up in the little things —like whether AWS grew 47%, 46%, 48%, 49% or 45%, it doesn't matter.

Make sure you understand the big long-term opportunity here.

And what do I always tell you about Amazon? This is what I've been saying about Amazon for years. Listen, Amazon is always a stock to buy. It was worth buying last year too. It was worth buying even the year before that.

It was worth buying even 10 years ago. It was worth buying even 20 years ago. It was worth buying even at the peak of the tech bubble. It was worth buying even before the peak of the tech bubble.

It was still worth buying after the tech bubble burst. It's always worth buying. This is one of the few stocks in the stock market that can always be bought , right? And it's always worth buying, right?