$AMZN

Amazon 是重仓的大爱股:其关键估值驱动因素经营现金流预计到2028年强劲增长,按当前的低倍数,三年后价值可达500–600美元,是现价的两到三倍。这是一只稳赢标普的“无脑”标的,预计未来两年还将继续跑赢。

看涨他说的是几年内
《Don’t Overthink the Magnificent Seven》
Rich Habits发布 2026-10-19 · 10 段内容
06:23/ —打开原视频

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10 段内容
6:2313:28

所以,如果你还没有配置 Google、Meta、Microsoft 或 Amazon,我强烈建议你构建一个合适的投资组合,并且也许像我一样,加大我在“七大巨头”上的仓位。

So, if you don't have exposure to Google, Meta, Microsoft, or Amazon, I highly recommend building a suitable investment portfolio and, perhaps like me, increasing my weight in the "Great Seven".

但我在 Amazon 也有很大的投资仓位,在 Microsoft 有很大的仓位,在 Meta 的仓位在增长,在 Alphabet 的仓位也在增长。

but I also have a large investment position in Amazon, a large position in Microsoft, a growing position in Meta, and a growing position in Alphabet.

现在,正如你在这里看到的,我最看好的其实是其中的两家,Amazon。看这里,今年的自由现金流是负的。我们预计明年的现金流会温和增长,然后,砰,一条大大的橙色带子会在那里继续增长。

Now, my favorites of these, as you can see here, are actually two of them, Amazon. Look at this, free cash flow is negative this year. We expect a modest cash flow next year, and then boom, a big orange band will continue to grow there.

我仍然相信,像 Amazon、Microsoft、Meta、Apple 以及 Nvidia 等大型科技股会继续表现良好。

I still believe that big tech stocks like Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and, you know , Nvidia, and the like, will continue to perform well.

这是“Fast Graves”平台上的 Amazon。对于可能是新来的朋友,“Fast Graves”是一个从历史角度向你解释的平台,从历史角度看,对吧?这家公司目前是高估还是低估?

所以,如果我们看历史,把它的当前估值与历史估值相比较,它的当前估值相对于以前是偏高还是偏低?

This is Amazon on the "Fast Graves" platform. " Fast Graves," for those who may be new here, is a platform that explains to you, historically, historically , isn't it? Is the company currently overvalued or undervalued?

So, if we look at history and compare its current valuation with its historical valuation, is its current valuation exaggerated or undervalued compared to what it was before?

所以,对于 Amazon,正如你在这里看到的,经营现金流大致是投资者给 Amazon 估值的最好方式。你可以看到这条黑线是它的股价,蓝线是它的经营现金流。经营现金流在 2021 年大幅下降,2022 年基本停滞。

它的股价怎么样了呢?也下跌了。但它在 2023 年和 2024 年又开始向上、向右移动,而现在在 2026、2027 和 2028 年,它将真正开始向上、向右移动。

And so, for Amazon, as you can see here, operating cash flow is the best way investors have valued Amazon, sort of. You can see this black line which is their stock price, and the blue line is their operating cash flow.

Well, operating cash flow declined significantly in 2021, and remained largely stagnant in 2022. What did their stock price do? It also decreased. But it started to move upwards and to the right again in 2023 and 2024, and now in 2026, 2027 and 2028, it will really start to move upwards and to the right.

所以,如果我们维持它现在的估值倍数,这是它过去几年中最低的估值倍数之一,我们说的是一只未来三年可能每股价值 500 美元、550 美元或 600 美元的股票。对吧?这意味着它的当前价值翻倍,甚至可能翻三倍。

So if we maintain the same valuation multiple that it has now, which is one of the lowest valuation multiples it has had in the past few years, we are talking about a stock that could be worth $500, $550 or $600 per share in the next three years. correct?

This means double, and possibly even triple, its current value.

所以,Amazon,不管它看起来多么无聊,你家里可能有 Alexa 之类的,然后说:“哦,我不想要 Amazon。”我想要人工智能领域那些吸引眼球的名字。好吧,随你怎么说。我认为它们是不用多想就该投的投资,应该出现在每个人的投资组合里。

So, Amazon, however boring it may seem, you may have Alexa at home, or whatever, and say, "Oh, I do n't want Amazon." I want one of these catchy names in the field of artificial intelligence.

Okay , whatever you say. I mean , I think they are no- brainer investments and should be in everyone's portfolio.

我们谈过 Amazon 每股 185 美元、190 美元和 205 美元的时候,不管当时价格是多少。现在,它的价格已经达到 260 美元。Amazon 现在的表现超过了标普指数,这太棒了。我认为它在未来两年会继续如此。

We've talked about Amazon at $185, $190 per share, and $205, whatever the price may be. Now , its price has reached $260. Amazon is now outperforming the S&P index, which is fantastic.

And I think it will continue to do so for the next two years.

所以,简单提醒一下,Amazon、Microsoft、Meta、Apple,像这样在这些巨头、“七大巨头”上平均定额投资,并不是一个坏主意。

Um, so, just a quick reminder, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, like investing an average dollar amount in these giants, the "Great Seven," isn't a bad idea.

这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断

Rich Habits 在这只股票上共 4 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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