我认为Amazon在当前价格值得买入；我持有该股，将其列入前十大重仓，愿意加仓，不会卖出。我的DCF模型对其估值为317美元，而现价为263美元，意味着12至18个月内有20%的上行空间，这得益于AWS 37%的增长。我预计营收将高于指引，但营业利润不会；自由现金流接近-76.6亿美元是可以接受的，不会恶化到-500亿美元。

Amazon reported overall revenue growth of 20% in the last quarter, and its Web Services (AWS) business accelerated by 37% year-over-year. These are the figures that justify spending $200 billion to develop data centers dedicated to artificial intelligence.

Amazon is scheduled to announce its financial results for the third quarter of 2026 after the stock market closes on October 29, 2026. Investors are asking me whether they should buy Amazon shares before this major investor update.

I will answer this question in this video, and I will also give a glimpse of what investors should expect from Amazon in its upcoming financial release.

as I own Amazon shares myself and have ranked them as one of the top 10 stocks you can buy this year. Amazon recorded an exceptional quarter with revenues exceeding $200 billion in just three months.

When measured based on revenue, Amazon is the largest company in the world. It recently surpassed Walmart. However, the Web Services (AWS) sector is the sector that most investors are watching.

This is where the company generates revenue growth from its investments in artificial intelligence.

Growth of 37%, as I mentioned, in the last quarter that was recently completed. That was up from 28% in the previous quarter. They have shown several consecutive quarters of acceleration, i.e., increasing growth in this sector.

When they announce sales for the next quarter, if they report AWS growth of any percentage above 39%, that will be positive for investors. Any percentage less than 37% would be disappointing because it would mean a slowdown in growth in this sector.

Since they have invested more since announcing their results, they are adding more data center capacity and more computing power every month or every few months. They should generate more revenue if their facilities are fully booked and supply does not meet demand, according to company management.

Based on what they mentioned, they should achieve rapid revenue growth in this sector.

Operating income jumped to 27.5 billion in the second quarter compared to 19.2 billion in the same quarter last year. Operating cash flow rose by 33% to $161 billion over the past twelve months.

So these are the kinds of large growth figures in vital categories such as profits and cash flow that justify spending hundreds of billions of dollars on artificial intelligence.

If they hadn't announced these figures, I would have been very concerned about their investments. Frankly, if they hadn't seen this kind of result, they wouldn't have spent this much money. Isn't that so?

These people are smart and motivated to achieve better business performance, and they will not spend this money in a sector unless they see the potential for huge returns, and they have not yet seen initial indications of those returns.

This is a wise management team that has been relatively effective in allocating capital. Therefore, as a shareholder, I am reasonably confident that they will achieve a good return on the capital they invest.

Now, I'm not saying I feel 100% confident, am I? I know there are risks involved in this process. I also know that many things could go wrong, but given their history and what I know about the industry, I am relatively confident that these investments will generate positive returns on invested capital.

In the second quarter, net income included other non-operating income before tax of 53.4 billion, mainly from investments in Anthropic.

They are major shareholders in Anthropic, and Anthropic's valuation is skyrocketing. I think that since the release of this report, Anthropic's rating has increased more and more.

I have stated in my reports that Anthropic's valuation is approaching two trillion dollars as a market value.

It is estimated that Anthropic may go public in November, and this is likely to add significantly to Amazon's other non-operating income. This represents a positive aspect for Amazon stock investors.

I didn't expect this when I bought Amazon shares. So this is a good feature that came as a result of Amazon's investments in Anthropic.

So, here’s one of my biggest concerns about my position at Amazon: the cash flow situation. The company is making huge sums of money, isn't it? I shared the figure of 161 billion with you, but they are spending so much on data centers that their free cash flow is actually negative 7.66 billion even after they achieved 161 billion over the past twelve months, right?

So, although they generate a lot of cash flow, they spend so much that it has become negative. I would like to see them, you know, that's acceptable. If this is the range I see over the next twelve to twenty-four months, then I'm okay with that.

I do n't want to see this situation change too much. I do n't want to see free cash flow decline significantly. I don't want to see it reach negative 50 billion, for example, over a twelve-month period.

That would be too big for me and my comfort level.

It would be better if they distributed it, wouldn't it? You don't need to build it all at once. Distribute it a little to better match your cash flow from operations. So, this is a category I'm very optimistic about, and I don't hear many investors talking about it, and that's Amazon's chip business.

They have surpassed $25 billion in annual revenue for their chip business, and that is growing at a triple-digit rate year-over-year.

So, Amazon owns its own central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs). The category I'm most optimistic about is CPUs, isn't it?

But in central processing units (CPUs), the leaders in that category, AMD, Intel, and others, do not have a significant advantage over companies like Amazon that develop their own units.

Therefore, I see this as a great area for Amazon to expand, especially since they spend a lot themselves for their internal uses. This is an area where they can develop these businesses to grow at a triple-digit rate on an annual basis.

As I mentioned, Graviton is their central processing unit. It is now in its fifth generation, offering 30 to 40% better price performance than similar items, and delivering 25% better computing performance than the previous generation of their technology.

This is a quiet leader in Amazon's growth rate, and I think it will continue to grow, perhaps not at a triple-digit rate for much longer, but it will continue to grow at a rapid rate, and that is very positive for Amazon stock investors.

It reduces its reliance on other chip providers such as Nvidia, AMD and others, and provides greater capacity for its customers.

This industry is completely booked. Therefore, with Amazon owning its own chips, it secures its own supply chain and provides its buyers with an alternative to what Nvidia offers.

In the third quarter, Amazon expects net sales of between 197 and 202 billion, representing a growth rate of approximately 10.5%. The reason it is a slower growth rate than the previous quarter is mainly because in the same quarter last year they held a "Prime Day" event, so when compared to a "Prime Day" event in a quarter, the growth compared to that quarter appears smaller than it actually is.

Amazon says growth would have been 400 basis points or 4 percentage points higher. Now, if you ask me, I think Amazon will exceed the upper limit of these expectations. Therefore, I believe their revenue will exceed $22 billion.

What I've seen in the economy since Amazon announced its results in the specific sectors it operates in suggests that sales may be better than Amazon expects.

Operating income forecast is $24.5 billion mid-quarter, compared to $17.4 billion in the same quarter last year. I am not very optimistic that Amazon will exceed this number because inflation and overall costs have risen significantly since Amazon made these projections.

Higher transportation costs, component costs, and input costs will all put pressure on Amazon's performance.

I am not very optimistic about Amazon exceeding the operating income figure. More so, I am optimistic that Amazon will exceed the revenue figure you are expecting.

Therefore, today with this research, I have updated the value of Amazon's discounted cash flow. I have valued the company at $317 per share. The current market price is $263.

Therefore, I see a 20% upside opportunity for Amazon over the next 12 to 18 months.

Investors are asking me, is this a buying opportunity before they announce those results? And I am optimistic that it is. But before I answer that question, let me remind everyone that I will be live-streaming to cover Amazon's financial results.

After the markets close on October 29 at approximately 2:00 PM Pacific Time, that is the scheduled time for their conference call.

So, I'll probably start the live stream at around 1:30 PM Pacific Time. This will be shortly after the company announces its quarterly financial results. They don't always announce the results at the same time.

Therefore, I cannot specify a specific time now for the broadcast to begin, but it will definitely be after the stock markets close and not before 1:15 PM Pacific Time.

So, sometime between 1:15 and 1:30. If you would like to join this live earnings analysis, it will be available exclusively to channel members. So, click the Join button below and get channel membership and you can join us at that event. We look forward to seeing you there.

I mentioned that I ranked Amazon as one of the top 10 stocks you can buy. I personally own Amazon shares and am interested in adding more. Actually, I am not interested in selling any part of my stake at the moment.

So, if you are interested in buying Amazon shares, I would follow the general approach here to minimize risk on both sides. I will buy half of my Amazon shares before the earnings announcement and the other half after the earnings announcement.

However, if you already own Amazon shares, I would take a more risk-neutral approach and allocate a larger portion of my purchases after the earnings announcement because you already benefit from the upside potential.

If you own Amazon shares. Therefore, I will invest 25% before profits and 75% after profits. In this way, you reduce the risks on both sides of the equation.

Remember that earnings results are a highly volatile event. Prices move noticeably in the days following a company's announcement of its quarterly financial results. Therefore, to reduce the risk of decline, I make these allocation decisions.

But overall, I think Amazon is a great investment at current market prices. Therefore, I will reiterate my ranking among the top 10 Amazon stocks today.