$AMZN · The Compound · 2026-10-27
Amazon 按 16.6 倍滚动市盈率交易，相对 Microsoft 的 20.9 倍和 Alphabet 的 21.6 倍处于低估，说话者认为这一折价并不合理。AWS 增速从 24% 加快至 37%，积压订单从 2000 亿美元升至 4960 亿美元；若 Jassy 像 Meta 那样为资本开支指引设上限，且 AWS 收入表现优于支出，该股有望达到 275 美元。
逐段跳播
是的，微软和 Alphabet 的财报明天收盘后公布，但亚马逊的财报要到周四才出，而这才是我想要重点关注的，因为……
Yeah, we'll get the Microsoft and Alphabet reports tomorrow after the close, but we'll get the Amazon report on Thursday, and that's what I want to focus on because ...
我喜欢……首先，也是最重要的，我本人持有这只股票。是的，你们大多数人持有它，是因为它在你持有的某个交易所交易基金里，或者类似的情况，但这只股票已经被遗忘很久了。它……它不错。它今年涨了。
它不……它不会让任何人兴奋，而且……它就是很普通。但我喜欢这个格局。上个季度他们公布业绩时，7月那个季度非常出色。Amazon Web Services 的增长逐季加速，从24%升到37%，是的，正如我接下来要解释的，这才是真正推动股价的因素。
I love...first and foremost, I personally own this stock. Yeah, most of you own it because it's in, you know, an exchange-traded fund you own or something , but this stock has been forgotten for a long time.
It's...it's good. It has increased during the year. It's not...it doesn't excite anyone, and... it's just ordinary. But I like the setup. And in the last quarter when they announced their results, the July quarter was fantastic.
Amazon Web Services' growth accelerated from 24% to 37% quarter after quarter, and yeah, that's what's really moving the stock, as I'm going to explain.
第一张图让我看到了这一点。我给你们展示的是过去三年的股价，底部那个阶梯状的图形是每股收益。这家公司的每股收益已经完全爆发，而股价却什么也没给你。我喜欢这种格局，因为有时候在市场上、在生活中，反应会滞后。
你所做的事并不总能在同一时刻得到认可。我们在科技股上见过这种情况，在我们自己的生活中也见过。这……这就是规则的一部分。有时候你必须在黑暗中努力很久，才会有人说：“哇，那家伙在做真正的事。”
我认为这适用于 Andy Jassie。他的头发真的长回来了，那该死的东西。这就是为什么我的头发一直没得到多少赞赏，直到今年夏天它在太阳下变白，突然人们就注意到了。
This first graph showed me . I am showing you the stock price over three years, and the staircase pattern at the bottom is the earnings per share. This company's earnings per share have completely exploded, and the share price has given you nothing as a result .
And I like that setting because sometimes in the markets and in life , there is a delayed reaction. You don't always get recognition for what you do at the same moment. We've seen it with technology stocks, and we've seen it in our own lives.
This is just...this is part of the deal. Sometimes you have to work hard in the dark before someone says, " Wow, that guy's doing something real." And I think this applies to Andy Jassie.
His hair is really growing back , that damn thing. That's why I didn't get much appreciation for my hair until this summer when it turned white in the sun, and suddenly people noticed.
是的，看下一张图。这是股价与滞后现金流的对比，我给你们看它是有原因的，我现在就解释。但我想让你们看的是亚马逊、Alphabet 和微软之间的比较。亚马逊用浅蓝色表示。它目前的市盈率，按过去十二个月计算，是16.6倍。
微软是20.9倍，Alphabet 是21.6倍。所以，在全球最大的三家云计算公司中，投资者为它支付的倍数是最低的，而且差距明显。我想我知道原因。我认为这是三家公司中最现实、最具体的业务。
它有门店和商品业务。它的卡车和货车日夜在我家附近穿梭。它有物流和设施。它有机器人，数以百万计的机器人。它有实体资产，这拖累了估值倍数，因为它可能比其他公司更资本密集。我认为这个价格折价是不合理的。
我认为这是一只被低估的股票，不仅仅是因为我持有它。我只是觉得人们没有给这家公司应有的认可。
Yes, the following graph. This is the price versus the delayed cash flow , and I am showing it to you for a reason that I will now explain. But what I want you to look at is the comparison between Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft.
Amazon is represented in light blue. It is now selling at a price-to-earnings ratio, over the past twelve months , of 16.6 times. Microsoft's score is 20.9, and Alphabet's is 21.6.
So, among the three largest cloud computing companies in the world, this is the lowest multiple paid by investors by a significant margin. And I think I know why. I believe this is the most realistic and tangible activity among the three companies.
It has a business in stores and merchandise. She has trucks and vans roaming my neighborhood day and night . It has logistics and facilities. It has robots, millions of robots.
It has physical objects that hinder the multiplier because it is probably more capital-intensive than others. I believe this price discount is unjustified. I believe it is an undervalued stock , and not just because I own it.
I just think people don't give this company the credit it deserves.
让我解释一下为什么这件事可能在周四晚上终于迎来关键节点。他们会公布业绩，让我读一下。按这个标准，它比 Alphabet 和微软便宜。AWS 的增长和订单积压超过资本支出。这是关键点。
Amazon Web Services（AWS）收入增长了36.7%。订单积压上季度从一年前的2000亿美元跃升至4960亿美元。订单积压意味着未来的收入增长，对吧？他们的自研芯片和廉价借贷是这家公司资本支出本身就成为竞争优势的两个原因。
所以，如果你担心 CoreWeave 的债券交易在15-16%左右，并且认为云初创公司的信贷会收紧，那么亚马逊的优势对股票买家来说就显得更有吸引力。
Let me explain why this might finally come to a head on Thursday night. They will announce their results, and let me read this. It is cheaper than Alphabet and Microsoft by this standard.
AWS growth and backlog of orders exceed capital expenditure. This is the essential point. Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue increased by 36.7%. Backlogs of orders jumped last quarter from $200 billion a year ago to $496 billion.
Backlogs of orders mean future revenue growth , right? Their proprietary chips and cheap borrowing are two reasons why this company's capital expenditure is in itself a competitive advantage.
So, if you're worried about CoreWeave with its bonds trading at around 15-16% and you think credit is going to get tighter for cloud startups, then Amazon's advantage looks more appealing to stock buyers.
我想分享 Joseph Montezum 在《Seeking Alpha》上写的这篇分析，因为我认为他准确抓住了推动亚马逊股价的关键。他回顾了最近五份财报，说股价上下反应的机制，在于亚马逊实际实现的 AWS 增长相对于它投入该业务的全部资本支出有多大。
所以，回到2025年8月。AWS 收入增长了17.5%，而 Azure 增长了39%，Google Cloud 增长了32%。规模更小。亚马逊那个季度刚刚花了310亿美元，比另外两家加起来还多。
当他们公布业绩时，股价下跌了7%。三个月后，情况完全不同。AWS 的增长加速到20%，是2022年以来最快的增速，他们因此得到了认可。财报发布后股价跳涨13%。他说：“就是这样。”
2月对我来说是最重要的月份。AWS 增长了24%，超出预期，这通常已经足够好了，但管理层为2026年指引了近2000亿美元的资本支出，比市场预期多三分之一，结果第二天股价下跌了10%。
那么，周四之前的情况如何？是积极的情况。AWS 在4月实现了28%的增长，7月实现了37%的增长。7月的财报让股价飙升15%，尽管资本支出计划又增加了200亿美元，同时订单积压爆发式增长。
所以，市场一直惩罚的是先于增长发生的支出，但本季度我们应该看到的是增长超过支出。
I want to share this analysis from Joseph Montezum, who writes in "Seeking Alpha," because I think he has hit the nail on the head regarding what drives Amazon's stock. He looked at the last five earnings reports and said that the mechanism by which the stock reacts, up and down , is how much AWS growth Amazon actually achieves against all the capital expenditure it pumps into that business.
So, it went back to August 2025. AWS revenue grew by 17.5%, while Azure was growing by 39% and Google Cloud by 32%. Smaller in size. Amazon had just spent $ 31 billion in that quarter, more than the other two had spent together.
When they announced the results, the stock fell by 7%. Three months later, the story was completely different. AWS's growth accelerated to 20%, its fastest growth rate since 2022, and they were recognized for it.
The stock jumped 13% after the report. He says, " This is it." February is the most significant month for me. AWS grew by 24% and exceeded estimates, which would normally have been good enough, but management directed nearly $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, a third more than the market expected, and they sent the stock down 10% the next day.
So, what is the situation before Thursday? It's a positive situation. AWS achieved growth of 28% in April and 37% in July. The July report sent the stock soaring 15% even as another $20 billion was added to the capital expenditure plan, while backlogs of work exploded .
So, what the market consistently penalizes is spending that precedes growth, but what we should see this quarter is growth that exceeds spending.
同时，重新展示那张图，第一张图。我认为他处于警戒状态。我的意思是，如果 Jassi 成功了，我们不知道数字会是多少。如果 Jacey 成功兑现，像 Meta 那样对资本支出指引设定上限，并证明 AWS 收入超过支出，股价可能达到275美元。
Meanwhile, re-present the graph , the first graph. I think he is on alert. I mean , if Jassi succeeds, we don't know what the numbers will be. If Jacey succeeds in delivering, keeps a cap on capital expenditure guidance as Meta did, and proves that AWS revenues outperform spending, the stock price could reach $275.
你怎么看？我也喜欢这个局面。缺口基本守住了。我喜欢这一点。很好。所以，你和我一样乐观。我也是。所以，我们要么一起沉下去，要么我们俩都看起来像天才。我们会上升。我们会上升。我们下周二晚上就知道了。我们会上升。
What are your thoughts? I like the situation too. The gap has mostly held. And I love that. Good. So, you're optimistic with me. Me too. So, we will either sink together or we will both look like geniuses.
We will ascend. We will ascend. We will find out next Tuesday evening. We will ascend.