$AMZN · Schwab Network · 2026-10-29
Amazon本季度每股收益和净销售额均未达预期，北美销售疲软被解读为普通消费者处境的直接反映；AWS则小幅超出预期，营业利润率从12.9%升至13.9%，创历史新高。讨论小组对零售业务的担忧超过AWS——AWS的大规模AI支出使自由现金流降至424亿美元，尽管第四季度2400亿至2470亿美元的指引符合预期。
逐段跳播
我们先从 Amazon 说起。我们看到它的股价正在快速下跌，已经跌了6.5%。我们来看他们的第三季度每股收益，是1.67美元。这实际上低于预期。市场预期是201美元。我在这里看一下，我想确认一下这是否正确。
等一下。是1.89美元。这也低于市场预期。预期是1.97美元。我想确认我们拿到的信息是正确的。
Let's start with Amazon first. We are seeing its share price rapidly falling , having already fallen by 6.5 percent. Let's look at their third quarter EPS, which came in at $1.67.
This is actually lower than expected. The market expectation was $201. I'm looking here, um, I want to make sure if this is correct or not. Wait a minute. It's $1.89. This is also lower than market expectations.
The forecast was $1.97. I want to make sure we have the correct information.
我们看他们的净销售额是2019亿美元，这也低于预期。市场预期是2022.6亿美元。所以，我们看到在营收和利润方面都出现了缺口。
Um, we're looking at their net sales here at $201.9 billion, which is also lower than expected. The market expectation was $202.26 billion. So, we are seeing a deficit here in terms of revenue and in terms of profit.
我们看他们的北美净销售额，是1128.5亿美元，这也偏低。市场预期是1130亿美元。
Um, when we look at their North American net sales , which are $112.85 billion, that's also low. The market was expecting $113 billion.
Amazon Web Services 的净销售额为459.8亿美元。这略好于市场预期的456.8亿美元。他们的自由现金流在过去12个月里降至424亿美元。
Um, Amazon Web Services' net sales came in at $45.98 billion. Um, that's slightly better than the market expectation of $45.68 billion. Um, their free cash flow has dropped to $42.4 billion in the last 12 months.
他们预计下一季度的净销售额将在2400亿至2470亿美元之间。但在我看来，股价现在已经下跌了11%，我记得昨天，我在谈到 Alphabet 时反复说过，我没想到会有这么大的缺口。但这似乎是一个相当熟悉的情况。
Um, and they're estimating net sales for the next quarter to be between $240 and $247 billion. But in my opinion, the share price is now down 11 percent, and I remember yesterday, when I repeatedly said in the case of Alphabet that I did not expect such a large deficit.
Um, but this seems like a pretty familiar situation.
KG，你预料到 Amazon 会有这样的结果吗？
KG, did you expect such a result from Amazon ?
没有。从云或 AWS 的角度来看，我没想到会这样。这方面基本符合市场预期。我更担心的是北美销售，因为我认为这直接反映了普通消费者的状况。
Um, no. Um, I didn't expect that from a cloud or AWS perspective. This is much as the market expected. I'm a little more concerned about North American sales, because I think it's a direct reflection of the situation for ordinary consumers.
我们必须小心。他们因汇率受到了约10亿或9亿美元的负面影响。所以，这很可能影响了分析师的预期，也就是我们在这里看到的情况。
We must be careful. They have suffered a negative impact of about one billion or 900 million dollars due to currency exchange rates. So, that's probably affecting analyst expectations which is what we're seeing here.
但不管怎样，我们看到他们的核心业务领域出现了短缺。不幸的是，我们看到股价在下跌。所以，我没想到公布的数据会这么疲弱。尤其是看 Amazon 的时候。不过，相比 AWS，我更担心零售业务。
AWS 基本符合预期。我想知道他们未来几天的方向会是什么。
Um, but anyway, we're seeing shortages in their core business areas. And unfortunately, we are seeing share prices go down. So, I didn't expect the published statistics to be so weak.
Especially when you're looking at Amazon. However, I'm a little more concerned about retail than AWS. AWS was pretty much as expected. I wonder what their direction is going to be in the coming days.
是的，看他们的指引，他们给出的第四季度销售区间是2400亿至2470亿美元，这似乎与市场预期相当一致。大约是2440亿，非常接近中值。但尽管现金流为负，他们表示资本支出预计在2200亿左右，与之前的估计一致。
Yes, when we look at their guidance , they are giving a sales range of $240 to $247 billion for the fourth quarter, which seems to be pretty consistent with market expectations.
This is about 244 billion, very close to the midpoint. But despite this negative cash flow, they say their capital expenditure (CapEx) is expected to be around 220 billion , a repeat of their previous estimate.
Sam，你认为这里最重要的事情是什么？因为昨天我们对 Alphabet 也提出了类似的担忧。不过，我们在这份报告中看到了一些不同的东西。他们的营业利润率今年升至13.9%，而之前是12.9%。
这是他们有史以来最高的。所以，这份报告中确实有一些不同的东西。
Sam, what do you think is the most important thing here? Because yesterday we raised similar concerns about Alphabet. However, we see some different things in this report. Their operating margin has increased to 13.9 percent this year, compared to 12.9 percent.
This is their highest ever. So, there are definitely some different things in this report.
是的，这像是反应不一，但话题感觉像是“似曾相识”，因为我今天看了科技分析师 Gene Munster 对此的看法。他认为 Google 的业绩是对今天 Amazon 投资者的一个警告。
他此前说过，市场今晚很可能不会太关注那份预期的12月指引，因为个人机器人对企业的长期风险正变得越来越真实。部分原因反映在今天 Amazon 股价的下跌中。
Yes, it's like a mixed reaction, but the topic feels like 'deja vu' because I was watching what technology analyst Gene Munster had to say about it today. He thinks Google's results were a warning to today's Amazon investors.
He has previously said that the market will likely not pay much attention to that expected December guidance tonight, as the long-term risks of personal bots are becoming increasingly real for businesses.
Part of this is reflected in today's drop in Amazon's share price.
纳斯达克也遭受了损失，下跌了1.5%。他认为个人机器人将让人们更容易找到所需的东西，并成为任何购买行为的合理起点。Amazon 领先有三个原因：找到你需要的东西、速度和信任。不过，他说，第一个原因将逐渐受到冲击。
The Nasdaq also suffered losses, losing 1.5 percent. He believes personal bots will make it easier to find what you need and make them a logical starting point for any purchase.
Amazon is ahead for three reasons. Finding what you need, speed and trust. However, he says, the first reason will gradually come under attack.
我同意KG的观点，我更担心的是零售端，因为我们看到核心业务出现了一些令人担忧的情况，这主要源于在AI上的巨额支出。我们知道这家公司显然在花很多钱。今天的确认表明，这正在减少他们的现金流。
我们知道它已经转为负值了。在开始之前，人们就预期这种情况会持续下去。还有一点也很重要，就是过去4年来作为其中一部分一直在进行的裁员。
And I think, agreeing with KG's point , I'm more concerned about the retail side because we're seeing some concerns about the core businesses , which is mainly due to the huge spending on AI.
We know that this company is clearly spending a lot of money. Today's confirmation suggests that this is reducing their cash flow. We know that it had already gone negative. Before it started, there was an expectation that this would continue.
And it's also important to mention the staff layoffs that have been going on as part of this for the past 4 years.
而Amazon下跌了5.5%。
and Amazon is down 5.5%.
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 25 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。