$AMZN · Schwab Network · 2026-10-30
Amazon 的 AWS 增长强劲，但被盈利担忧所抵消，使其成为今年 Big Seven 中表现最差的公司之一。Tim 认为 220 支撑位处反应过度，若双重/三重底成立则风险回报良好，若跌破则离场；KG 预计不会出现大幅崩跌，若日线锤子线成立，可能出现短期反弹/回测 200 日均线，但周线图风险较高，RSI 高点走低且 MACD 偏空，因此 50 周均线必须守住。
逐段跳播
那么，我们来看看你的第二个选项。你有 Amazon。很明显，我们已经听到了 Amazon 的消息。Amazon 的云服务（AWS）增长强劲，但这份报告中的许多担忧导致该股下跌。
它是年初以来“七大科技股”中表现最差的股票之一。Tim，你对 Amazon 怎么看？
So, let's take a look at your second option here. You have Amazon. It's clear we've heard the Amazon news. Amazon's cloud services ( AWS) growth was strong, but many concerns in this report led to a decline in the stock.
One of the worst performing stocks among the "Big Seven" since the beginning of the year. Tim, what's your take on Amazon?
如你所知，我们显然有数据和数字，而且存在许多担忧。我同意，但如你所知，我真正依据的是技术面，而我喜欢这张图。该股确实回落到了7月和8月的那些低位。我目睹了5月到7月底的那波强劲抛售；该股从220附近反弹，守住了那个水平，然后在7月上涨，随后大幅暴跌，出现一个大的向下跳空缺口，跌到220，然后又向上猛涨。
我看到同一种形态在某种程度上重复出现。我喜欢它的一点是，Amazon——我想我今天有三个包裹要到，周末还有更多。除了 Amazon Web Services（AWS），它是一家很棒的公司。
它经历了这么大的回撤。我认为这对公司财报有点反应过度，而你可以把这一点纳入图表来看。如果220水平上的双重或三重底守不住，你就有一个非常明确的退出区域，因为跌破这个水平意味着回到春季的水平，你不想在那里继续持有这只股票。
因此，我喜欢用支撑位和阻力位来买入，也用来止损。如果该股像8月那样起飞，这笔交易的风险回报比会非常出色。
As you know, again, it is clear that we have the data and the figures, and there are many concerns. I agree, but as you know, what I really do depends on the technical side, and I like this chart.
The stock really did fall back to those low levels of July and August. I witnessed that strong sell-off from May to the end of July ; The stock rebounded from around the 220 level, held at that level, then rose during July, then crashed hard, with a large downward gap, to reach 220 and then surged upwards.
I see a kind of repetition of the same pattern. What I like about this is that Amazon, I think I have three packages arriving today, and more over the weekend. Besides Amazon Web Services (AWS ), it's a great company.
I've had this huge setback. I think it's a bit of an overreaction to the company's earnings, and you can incorporate that into the chart. If the double or triple bottom at the 220 level does not hold, you have a very clear exit zone, because breaking this level means a return to the spring levels and you do not want to keep the stock there.
Therefore, I like to use support and resistance levels to buy as well as to stop loss. If the stock takes off as it did in August, you will have an excellent risk-to-reward ratio in this trade .
好。那么，KG，我们来看看 Amazon。我们有一个4月低点，大约在200。还有一个8月低点，大约在284。哪些水平在你看来是具体的支撑或阻力区域？
Good. So, KG, let's look at Amazon here. We have an April low at around 200. And an August low at around 284 . Which levels stand out to you as specific areas of support or resistance?
Tim 的包裹越堆越多，他正在为下周的清理做准备。我不认为这只股票在这里正在经历一次重大的向下崩塌。其实，Marley，我在这里不打算去预测，但如果这只股票在今天盘中由跌转涨，我不会感到意外。
如果我们看今年的日线图，可以看到我们已经突破了200日移动平均线。我们有一根非常强劲的绿色蜡烛。自开盘以来，人们一直在买入这只股票。你其实可以看买卖比率，这仍是一个技术指标，大约在0.58。
因此，目前买入合约完全压过卖出合约。我们看到227美元这个水平大部分时间都守住了。我们在今年6月测试过它。我们在7月底又测试了一次。那就是支撑区域。现在，我们可能会看到对那条200日移动平均线的回测。
那么，那应该会充当阻力区。然后我们可能会稍微跌到一个更低的水平。但再说一次，我们在今天整个盘中看到的买入活动并不真正表明这只股票有显著的疲弱。如果我们跌破那个水平，我们仍然有一个在220到大约215之间的技术性向下缺口。
相对强弱指数（RSI）目前仍在录得更高的低点。我们看看这会不会改变。MACD指标处于看跌形态，12周期指数移动平均线在26周期之下。但我目前对这根K线印象深刻。如果你在寻找短线交易，这是底部一根非常强劲的锤子线。
我的意思是，我们现在几乎在顶部交易。再说一次，我们距离转涨大约还有两美元。如果它转涨，我不会意外看到一些买家积极进场。我们来看周线图，因为这里的情况变得有风险；周线图正在录得更高的高点和低点，但我们正在目睹一次崩塌。
我们正在测试50周移动平均线。但我提起这个的原因是，我认为这一次可能与我们上次看到的情况没有太大不同。我把它们圈在这些方框里了；从去年10月到今年4月，我们经历了一次大幅崩塌，但我们到达了一个关键支撑区，然后强劲反弹，录得新的相对高点。
我们在左边看到的这个形态，和我们现在在右边那个方框里看到的形态是一样的。那么，为什么我稍微更悲观一些。相对强弱指数（RSI）正在录得更低的高点，MACD指标中正在形成一个看跌形态。
50周移动平均线必须守住。不过，如果你在寻找短线反弹，而且日线图上的锤子线守住，我不会意外看到一些延续走势，并在下周初回测200日移动平均线。
Tim's parcels are piling up as he prepares for next week's cleaning. I don't think this stock is experiencing a major downward collapse here. Actually, Marley, I'm not going to try to predict here, but I wouldn't be surprised if this stock turned from red to green in today's session .
If we look at the daily chart for this year, we can see that we have broken through the 200-day moving average. We have a very strong green candle. Since the opening, people have been buying this stock.
You can actually look at the buy-sell ratio, which is still a technical indicator at around 0.58. Therefore, purchase contracts are completely superior to sales contracts at this time.
We see that the $227 level is holding for the most part. We tested that in June of this year. We tested it again in late July. That was the support area. Now, we may see a retest of that 200-day moving average.
Now, that should act as a resistance zone. And then we might drop a little to a lower level. But again, the buying activity we've seen throughout today's session doesn't really indicate significant weakness in this stock.
If we break that level, we still have a technical downward gap between 220 and approximately 215. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still recording higher lows at the moment .
We'll see if that changes. The MACD indicator is in a bearish formation, with the 12-period exponential moving average below 26. But I am currently impressed with this candlestick.
If you are looking for a short-term trade, it is a very strong hammer candlestick at the bottoms. I mean, we are trading at almost the tops right now. Once again, we are about two dollars away from turning green.
If it turns green , I wouldn't be surprised to see some buyers stepping in aggressively. Let's move on to the weekly chart because the situation here becomes risky; The weekly chart is recording higher highs and lows, but we are witnessing a collapse.
We are testing the 50-week moving average. But the reason I'm bringing this up is that I think this time might not be too different from what we saw last time. I have selected them in these boxes here; From October of last year until April of this year, we experienced a substantial collapse, but we reached a key support zone and then rallied strongly, recording new relative highs.
This pattern that we see on the left is the same one we now have in that other square on the right here. Now, here's why I'm a little more pessimistic. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is recording lower highs, and a bearish pattern is forming in the MACD indicator.
The 50-week moving average must hold. However, if you are looking for a short-term bounce and the hammer candlestick holds on the daily chart, I would n't be surprised if you see some follow-through and a retest of the 200-day moving average early next week.
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 25 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。