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$AMZN · Invest with Henry · 2026-11-02

AI 摘要 · Invest with Henry

Henry 看多并持有 Amazon:AWS 营收同比增长超过 39% 至 460 亿美元,营业利润 178 亿美元。他预计股价将回升至 280 美元,并认为若增长维持在当前水平附近、同时零售利润率和广告业务改善,就有望成功;不过 2026 年 2,200 亿美元的资本开支对自由现金流构成压力。

看涨他说的是几个月内
《5 LEAPS Options I’m Buying NOW (Huge Opportunity)》
Invest with Henry发布 2026-11-02 · 8 段内容
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8 段内容
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我用来做“LEAP”期权的第三只股票是 Amazon。Amazon 远不只是一家在线购物公司,这一点你大概已经知道了。但这家公司实际上有几个大多数人并不真正了解的关键驱动力。首先,它是一个庞大的电商平台,这一点你大概也明白。

但第二个引擎 AWS 极其强大。此外,第三个驱动力是它的广告业务。他们还有订阅业务,也就是 Amazon Prime。AWS 向世界各地的企业出租计算、存储和 AI 基础设施能力,而 Amazon 的广告业务则让品牌方付费在 Amazon 的购物系统及其他功能中获得曝光。

这个系统极其强大,因为任何在 Amazon 上的人都有很高的购买意图。他们正在购物,所以广告非常昂贵。

The third stock I use for "lead" options is Amazon. Amazon is much more than just an online shopping company , and you probably already know that. But business actually has several key drivers that most people don't really understand.

First and foremost, it is a huge e-commerce marketplace. You probably already understand that . But the second engine, AWS, is extremely powerful. Also, the third driver, which is its advertising activity.

They also have a subscription business, which is Amazon Prime. AWS leases computing, storage, and AI infrastructure capabilities to businesses around the world, while Amazon's advertising business allows brands to pay for exposure across Amazon's shopping system and other features.

This system is incredibly powerful because anyone who is on Amazon has a high purchase intent. They are shopping, so advertising is extremely expensive.

现在来说 AWS,这是我认为目前 Amazon 特别有意思的部分。第三季度,AWS 收入同比增长超过39%,达到约460亿。这是它大约5年来最快的增速。AWS 目前的年化收入约为1840亿美元。

但 AWS 不仅增长迅速,而且非常强大、盈利能力很强。仅一个季度,AWS 就产生了近178亿美元的营业利润。Amazon 整体实现了281亿美元的营业利润,并达到了有史以来最高的营业利润率。

Now, moving on to AWS, this is the part of Amazon that I think is particularly interesting at the moment. In the third quarter, AWS revenue grew by more than 39% year-over-year to reach approximately 46 billion.

This is its fastest growth rate in about 5 years. AWS now operates with an annual revenue rate of approximately $ 184 billion. But AWS is not only growing rapidly, it is also very powerful and profitable.

AWS generated nearly $17.8 billion in operating income in just one quarter. Amazon as a whole achieved operating income of $28.1 billion and reached its highest operating margin ever.

人工智能已成为这项业务活动的巨大驱动力。每一家想要构建 AI 应用的公司都需要算力、存储、网络以及使用先进 AI 模型的能力。Amazon 可以通过 AWS 提供所有这些。AWS 最近与 Meta、Nvidia、OpenAI、Salesforce 和 Oracle 等公司签署了协议。

Artificial intelligence has become a huge driver of this business activity. Every company that wants to build AI applications needs computing power, storage, networks, and access to sophisticated AI models.

Amazon can provide all of that through AWS. AWS recently signed agreements with companies including Meta, Nvidia, OpenAI, Salesforce, and Oracle.

然后是 Amazon 的其他业务。零售业务为 Amazon 提供了庞大的消费者分销和物流基础设施。Prime 打造了一套让客户不断回头的订阅体系。广告则为 Amazon 带来另一项有吸引力的业务,因为当

Then there are Amazon's other businesses. The retail operation gives Amazon a massive infrastructure for consumer distribution and logistics. Prime creates a subscription system that keeps customers coming back.

Advertising gives Amazon another attractive business, because when

更大的问题在于它们的支出规模。就像 Google 等其他科技巨头一样,Amazon 预计2026年的资本支出约为2200亿美元,主要原因是其在人工智能基础设施上的巨额投资。自由现金流因此受到显著影响。

The bigger issue is the scale of their spending. Just like other tech giants such as Google , Amazon is projecting capital expenditures of around $ 220 billion in 2026, largely due to its massive investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure .

Free cash flow was significantly affected as a result.

Amazon 能否把其庞大的 AI 支出周期转化为未来的巨额利润?如果 Amazon 继续以接近当前的速度增长,同时零售利润率改善、广告业务持续扩张,我认为 Amazon 有几条不同的成功路径。

Can Amazon turn its massive AI spending cycle into huge future profits ? If Amazon continues to grow at a rate close to its current rate, with improved retail margins and continued expansion of advertising, I believe Amazon has several different paths to success.

那么,这就是 Amazon 股票。我持有2800股,总价值为679,000美元。我在我的 Discord 社区里谈了很多关于 Amazon 的内容,我从 Amazon 上赚了超过100,000美元。

所以,这是一只很棒的股票,占我投资组合的很大一部分。

So, here's Amazon stock. I own 2,800 shares, which represent a total value of $679,000. I've talked a lot about Amazon in my Discord community , and I've made over $100,000 from Amazon.

So, this is an amazing stock that makes up a large part of my investment portfolio.

我想给你看看 Amazon 股票的“LEAP”期权会是什么样。目前,Amazon 股价为每股242美元。至于我会选择的“LEAP”期权,它直接延伸到2027年,我会看9月的到期日。

我认为9月入场能给我们充足且极佳的时间来持有 Amazon 股票。你会经历几个季度财报,看到公司取得了什么成绩,而我会在这里选择235的行权价。我现在把期权展开。你可以看到这里的买卖价差并不理想,比我想要的略高一些,超过了2.70美元。

这不理想,但与此同时,当你买入“LEAP”期权是因为要长期持有时,买卖价差完全没有流动性也是可以的。好吗?这里的“delta”值是0.63。略低一些,但我预计 Amazon 股票会快速回升。

我认为这家公司股价可能达到每股280美元。你在这里又能看到,280的价格并不比274的盈亏平衡点高多少。好吗?但再说一次,我不会持有这个期权到到期日。我并不真的有兴趣持有它到到期日,因为它在最后30天会损失大量“theta”。

相反,我退出 Amazon 的点位就是股价达到每股280美元时,或者我会在2027年6月管理这个仓位。这里的权利金是40美元,相当于四千美元。远少于必须以23,500美元买入100股 Amazon。

所以,这是我在市场一开盘就会建立的仓位,我会持有大约9个月,或者可能稍长一些。

I want to show you what the "Leap" option on Amazon stock will look like. Currently , Amazon stock is trading at $242 per share . As for the "LEAP" option that I would choose , it would simply extend to 2027 and I would look at the expiration date in September.

I believe that entering in September gives us ample and excellent time to hold onto Amazon stock. You will have several quarterly earnings to see what the company is achieving, and I would choose an execution price of 235 here.

I will expand the options now. You can see that the bid and ask price difference here is not ideal. It's a little higher than I'd like. It exceeds $2.70. It's not ideal, but at the same time, when you go into a "leave" option because you're holding it for the long term, it's okay to have a completely illiquid bid-ask spread.

Good? The value of "delta" here is 0.63. A little less , but I expect a quick recovery for Amazon stock. I think this company could reach $280 per share. You can see here again that a price of 280 is not much higher than the breakeven point of 274.

Okay? But again, I won't keep this option until the expiration date. I have no real interest in keeping the cucumber until its expiration date because of the amount of "theta" it loses in the last 30 days.

Instead, my exit point from Amazon will simply be when the price reaches $280 per share, or I will manage this position in June 2027. The premium here is $40, which is equivalent to four thousand dollars.

Much less than having to buy 100 shares of Amazon at $23,500. So, this is a position I will open as soon as the market opens, and I will hold it for about 9 months or maybe a little longer.

观察点

季度财报中的AWS增长、零售利润率和广告业务
AWS增长维持在当前水平附近,同时零售利润率改善、广告业务扩张
未来数个季度季度财报
支撑看涨逻辑

这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断

Invest with Henry 在这只股票上共 6 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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