$AMZN · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-05
亚马逊营收增长12%至2020亿美元，营业利润增长61%至逾280亿美元，营业利润增速远超营收，其中AWS增长39.3%、利润率接近40%，在大型云同行中杠杆效应最佳。作为股东，说话者预计这一态势将持续数年，依据是AWS资本开支、需求至少在未来一年半到两年内超过供给，以及AWS积压订单超过5780亿美元；该股尚未上涨，原因是市场怀疑Anthropic和OpenAI能否支付这些合同，以及仍需大量支出。
逐段跳播
Amazon 去年最后一个季度实现了2020亿美元营收，同比增长12%。为了提升吸引力，其营业利润同比增长61%，超过280亿美元。总体而言，这是一个出色的季度，但没有达到投资者的预期。
Amazon generated $202 billion in revenue in the last quarter of the year, a 12% increase compared to the same quarter last year. To increase its appeal, its operating profit rose by 61% year-on-year to more than $28 billion.
Overall, it was a remarkable quarter , but it did not live up to investors' expectations.
所以，投资者在问：“Amazon 到底怎么了？为什么业绩这么好，股价却没有涨得更多？”因此，我想回顾一下 Amazon 上个季度的细节，并谈谈我对为什么这些业绩公布后其股价没有上涨的看法。
So, investors are asking: "What's going on with Amazon? Why isn't the stock price rising more despite these positive results?" Therefore, I wanted to review the details of Amazon's last quarter and offer my perspective on why its stock price did not rise after these results.
Amazon 的营收和营业利润都在增长，而且令人印象深刻的是，其营业利润相对于营收增长了五倍。就所展现出的杠杆效应而言，这被认为在大型云计算公司中是最好的。
Amazon's revenue and operating income are increasing , and impressively, its operating income has increased fivefold compared to its revenue. This is considered the best among giant cloud computing companies in terms of the leverage it demonstrates.
我谈过这一点，并预测它会发生。我之所以对 Amazon 做出这一预测，是因为公司整体营收增长了12%，而 Amazon 云服务（AWS）板块增长了39.3%。这个板块目前是公司最赚钱的板块，该板块的营业利润率接近40%。
因此，随着 Amazon 来自这个更赚钱板块的营收增加，其营业利润率的增长速度超过了营收增长速度。
I spoke about this and predicted it would happen. The reason I predicted this for Amazon is that while the company’s overall revenue increased by 12%, it increased by 39.3% in the Amazon Cloud Services (AWS) sector.
This sector is by far the most profitable for the company, with operating profit margins in this sector approaching 40%. Therefore, as Amazon's revenues from this more profitable sector increase, its operating profitability is growing at a faster pace than revenue growth.
对 Amazon 股票投资者来说，好消息是这种情况很可能还会持续好几年，因为公司正投入数千亿美元来扩大这一特定板块的产能，其大部分投资都投向了这里。这一品类的需求超过供给，而且这种情况很可能至少还会持续一年半到两年。
The good news for Amazon stock investors is that this is likely to continue for several more years, as the company is spending hundreds of billions of dollars to expand its production capacity in this particular sector, where most of its investments are directed .
Demand for this category exceeds supply , and this situation is likely to remain so for at least a year and a half or two years.
进一步的证据是，Amazon 的 AWS 服务订单积压同比增长了三位数，超过5780亿美元。这些是 Amazon 已经接到、最终将转化为营收的订单。
Further evidence of this is that Amazon's backlog of orders for AWS services has grown by triple digits year-over-year to more than $578 billion. These are orders that Amazon has received and will eventually turn into revenue.
所以，业绩非常出色，这正是我作为股东所希望看到的、能够证明公司值得在某个特定品类投入数千亿美元的那种业绩。
So, the results are excellent, and this is the kind of result I, as a shareholder, would hope for to justify the company spending hundreds of billions of dollars in a particular category.
但为什么业绩这么好，股价却没有上涨？我有几个理由。首先，市场对这笔巨额积压订单持怀疑态度。签署这些合同的公司是 Anthropic、OpenAI 等，市场怀疑这些公司是否有能力支付和履行这些合同。
市场担心这些公司可能会取消、推迟、延长合同，甚至以其他方式付款，而不是向 Amazon 支付现金。这是 Amazon 股价没有对这些进展做出反应的原因之一。
But why isn't the stock price rising despite these results? I have several reasons to think so. Firstly, the market is skeptical of this huge backlog of orders . The companies that are signing these contracts are Anthropic, OpenAI, and others, and the market is skeptical about these companies' ability to pay and fulfill these contracts.
The market is concerned about the possibility of these companies canceling, postponing, extending, or even paying for the contracts in a different way instead of paying the amount in cash to Amazon.
This is one of the reasons why Amazon's stock has not responded to these developments.
其次，Amazon 今年需要花费数千亿美元，可能明年、后年也需要，才能产生这些营收。它目前没有产生这6000亿美元营收所需的产品或服务。它并不具备所需的一切。如果它们不建设这个项目，就不太可能产生这么多营收。
因此，投资者并不太买账，因为他们必须花费数千亿美元来扩大业务规模。
Second, Amazon needs to spend hundreds of billions of dollars this year, and possibly next year, and possibly the year after, to generate this revenue. It does not have the product or service necessary to generate this $600 billion in revenue.
She doesn't have everything she needs . If they don't build this project, they are unlikely to generate this much revenue . Therefore, investors are not very impressed because they have to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to expand the scale of the business.
我举个例子：你有一家餐厅，赚了1000万美元。但餐厅老板说：“明年我们要赚2000万美元。”你可能会说：“哇，太棒了！你的利润翻倍了。”但如果餐厅老板告诉你：“是的，但明年我们还要再开五家分店”呢？
所以，是的，他们的收入翻倍了，但为了实现这一增长，他们也增加了五倍的分店数量。Amazon 的情况没有那么极端，但关键在于：他们需要投入多得多的创收资产，才能实现这样的营收增长。
I'll give you this example: You have one restaurant that makes $10 million . But the restaurant owner says: "Next year, we will make $20 million." You might say, "Wow, that's excellent!
You're doubling your profits." But what if the restaurant owner told you: "Yes, but next year we will also be adding five more branches"? So, yes, they are doubling their income, but they also added five times the number of branches to achieve this increase.
So it's not quite that extreme with Amazon, but here's the point: they need to invest in much more income-generating assets to achieve this revenue increase.
当一家公司能够以高于其现有资产和产能的水平创造营收，并且能够在不需要大量额外投资的情况下实现扩张时，投资者最为买账。所以，我认为这些就是为什么 Amazon 的股价没有像其业绩所预期的那样上涨的部分原因。
Investors are most impressed when a company generates revenues higher than its current assets and production capacity, and is able to expand without the need for large additional investments.
So, I think these are some of the reasons why Amazon's stock price is n't rising as much as expected given its performance.
观察点
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 13 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。