$AMZN · FAST Graphs · 2026-11-05
鉴于亚马逊将大量资金再投资，应以现金流而非利润来估值。按过去九年的现金流口径看，它显得被低估，而其预测图谱也印证了它当前已显得被低估——不过决策应基于预测。
逐段跳播
在继续之前，我们再看一个简短的例子。我们来看看 Amazon。对于 Amazon，我认为这里很重要的一点是，你必须从现金流的角度来看待它。我以前多次谈到过这一点，因为 Jeff Bezos 说过他不会赚很多利润，因为他会在业务上进行大量资本支出或大量再投资。
Let's take a quick look at one more example before we move on. Let's take a look at Amazon. Now with Amazon, one of the things I think is important here is that you have to look at this from a cash flow basis.
I've talked about this many times before because Jeff Bezos said he wouldn't make much profit because he would be making a lot of capital expenditures or a lot of reinvestment in the business.
但这里有一段时期，公司增长了29%。不过“Fast Graffs”是一个动态工具。我们把它缩短到14年，现在我们会说增长是30%。我们按10年来做，现在看到增长是25%。我们按6年来做，现在又回到37%的增长。
这现在是现金流增长。我们再一次看到，从长期来看存在非常强的相关性。因此，这是判断公允价值的一个很好的参考。
But here's a period when the company grew by 29%. But " Fast Graffs" is a dynamic tool. Let's shorten it to 14 years, and now we say we have 30% growth. Let's do that for 10 years, and now we see that we have 25% growth.
Let's do that over 6 years, and now we're back to 37% growth. This is now cash flow growth . Once again, we see that in the long run there was a very strong correlation. Therefore, this is a good reference for fair value.
这表明，如果你看比如过去九年，基于现金流分析，Amazon 似乎被低估了。但我想提醒你，你始终是基于预测来做这个决定的。预测图已经证实了这一点。Amazon 在这里已经显得被低估了。
This suggests that if you look, for example, at the past nine years , based on cash flow analysis, Amazon appears to be undervalued. But I want to remind you that you always make this decision based on projections.
The forecast map confirms this already. Amazon already looks undervalued here.
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
FAST Graphs 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。