$AMZN · Ale's World of Stocks · 2026-11-08
无论从哪方面看，Amazon 都是强劲的长期买入标的，其资本开支达 2200 亿美元：现金流增长 29% 至 1680 亿美元，云业务销售额增长 39%，营业利润增长 55%、利润率接近 40%，订单储备超过 5000 亿美元。股价接近历史高点，但五年间仅上涨略低于 50%，使其估值受到压制，PEG 比行业更便宜；它排名第一，高于 Microsoft。
逐段跳播
接下来看我们榜单上的第二名，这是一家真正的巨头，肯定会和 Microsoft 争夺第一的位置，它就是电商和云计算帝国 Amazon。股票代码是 AMZN。它占 Pelosi 投资组合的 8% 以上，估值约为 25 美元。
Moving on to second place on our list, we have a real giant that will certainly compete with Microsoft for first place, and that is the e-commerce and cloud empire, Amazon. The trading symbol is AMZN.
Which constitutes more than 8% of Pelosi's portfolio, with an estimated value of about $25.
和 Microsoft 一样，Amazon 的表现也远好于其他科技股。事实上，它的股价目前仍接近历史最高水平。
Now, just like Microsoft, Amazon has performed much better than other tech names. In fact, its shares are still close to their record levels.
不过在我看来，它近几年在某种程度上受到了压制，过去五年只上涨了略低于 50%。这一点我稍后讲到估值时会再回来谈。
Although, in my opinion, it has been somewhat suppressed in recent years, having risen by just under 50% over the past five years. That's something I'll come back to shortly when we look at the evaluation.
中期选举之所以没有对这只股票造成太大伤害，也许是因为华尔街此前已经在担心今年 2200 亿美元的资本支出预算，而新政府监管带来的任何建设放缓，无论如何都会有助于缓解其中一部分担忧。
Perhaps the reason the midterm elections didn't do much damage to the stock is that Wall Street was already worried about this year's $220 billion capital expenditure budget, and any construction slowdown due to new government regulations would have helped alleviate some of those concerns anyway.
不过，无论 Amazon 走哪条路，是被迫的还是主动选择的，我都认为这只股票是值得长期强力买入的。
However, regardless of the path Amazon takes, whether forced or chosen, I consider the stock a strong long-term buy.
一方面，如果 Amazon 继续所有这些支出——我相信它会继续——它有充足的现金流来支撑。例如，上个季度仅经营性现金流就跃升 29%，达到前所未有的 1680 亿美元纪录。
On the one hand, if Amazon continues with all these expenses, which I believe it will, it has plenty of cash flow for that. In the last quarter, for example, its operating cash flow alone jumped 29% to an unprecedented record of $168 billion.
他们花在扩张上的所有钱，只是为了满足已经超过供给的需求。例如，云服务销售额增长了 39%，尽管它已经位居全球第一。与此同时，其营业利润的增幅更大，达到 55%，利润率也接近 40%。
All the money they spend on expansion is simply to meet a demand that already exceeds supply . For example, cloud services sales grew by 39% despite already being ranked number one globally.
Meanwhile, their operating income grew by an even larger percentage of 55%, resulting in huge profit margins approaching 40% as well.
它还拥有超过 5000 亿美元的订单积压，管理层认为它最终会成长为一家独立的万亿美元公司。另一方面，即使其中任何一项出现某种放缓——我认为这不会发生——你仍然拥有世界上最好、最多元化的公司之一，还拥有最大的电商平台。
一个高利润率、快速增长的数字广告引擎，实际上还会随着 AI 的改进而变得更强。而且你现在还有 Prime Video、Prime Music、机器人、机器人出租车、卫星互联网、药房，甚至还有定制芯片。
这个板块正以三位数的百分比增长，还持有数千亿美元的订单。
It also has an order backlog of more than half a trillion dollars, and management believes it will eventually grow into a trillion-dollar standalone company in its own right. On the other hand, even if any of that were to experience any kind of slowdown, which I don't think will happen, you would still have one of the best and most diversified companies in the world with the largest e-commerce platform as well.
A high-margin, fast-growing digital advertising engine that only gets stronger with AI improvements in reality. And you also have Prime Video, Prime Music, robots, robot taxis, satellite internet, pharmacy, and even custom chips now.
This sector is growing at triple-digit percentage rates, and also holds hundreds of billions in the order book.
所以，回到这里被压制的股价，如果把其财务数据中庞大的规模和增长加进去，得出的“PEG”比率仍然比该板块其他公司略便宜一些。
So, going back to the suppressed share price here, if you add that massive size and growth in their financial data, you end up with a "PEG" ratio that is still somewhat cheaper than the rest of the sector.
所以，尽管我非常喜欢 Microsoft，但没错，Amazon 将不得不占据我们榜单的第一名，我会把其他公司都往下挪一位，给它腾出位置。
So, as much as I love Microsoft, yes, Amazon will have to take first place in our rankings and I will push the others one place down to accommodate them.
我承认，云计算公司自行设计芯片构成了一个真实威胁，我们作为投资者应长期关注，因为 Google、Amazon 和 Meta 这样的公司肯定希望减少目前支付给 Nvidia 的 75% 利润率。
I will admit that cloud computing companies designing their own chips poses a real threat that we as investors should monitor in the long term, because companies like Google, Amazon and Meta would certainly like to reduce the 75% profit margin they currently pay to Nvidia.
但就排名而言，我仍然把这只股票放在我们榜单上很高的位置。我不能把它提到 Amazon 的水平。
But in terms of ranking, I still place this stock very high on our list. I can't raise it to Amazon's level.
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
Ale's World of Stocks 在这只股票上共 7 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。