$AMZN · The Motley Fool · 2026-11-09
AMZN 是有史以来最优秀的企业之一,可以长期安心持有:AWS 营收同比增长 40% 至 460 亿美元,为五年来最快增速,营业利润率创纪录,但总营收略低于分析师预期。424 亿美元负自由现金流以及债务从 660 亿美元升至 1730 亿美元,是为 AI 产能付出的融资成本,而非陷入困境的信号;这笔支出能否带来回报仍是问题所在。
逐段跳播
现在让我们转向一种完全不同的业务。我们来谈谈一家大型科技公司。我们来谈谈 Amazon。这无疑是一个无需介绍、家喻户晓的名字。
Now let's turn to a completely different type of business. Let's talk about a large technology company. Let's talk about Amazon. This is certainly a well-known name that needs no introduction.
基本上,这项业务目前建立在三大领域之上。他们有在线零售市场,Amazon Web Services(即 AWS),也就是云计算部门,当然还有他们完全基于零售流量的、快速增长的广告业务。
Basically, this business is currently based on three main areas. They have the online retail marketplace, Amazon Web Services or AWS, which is the cloud computing division, and of course their rapidly growing advertising business that is based entirely on retail traffic.
当然,他们还有娱乐部门。他们还有其他方面的业务,但目前这三块是增长的主要驱动力。有意思的是,尽管 AWS 在收入规模上小于零售业务,但它却是真正利润的最大来源。这是因为云计算比零售的利润率高得多。
Of course, they also have the entertainment division . They have other aspects of their business, but these three are currently driving the most growth. The interesting thing is that even though AWS is smaller than the retail business in terms of revenue, it is the largest source of real profit.
This is because cloud computing is much more profitable than retail.
我们还看到 Amazon 正在投资新的长期领域。比如杂货业务、药房。他们有一项名为 Amazon Kuiper(Project Kuiper)的卫星互联网服务。还有他们的自动驾驶出租车项目 Zoox,我一直在密切关注它。
We also see that Amazon is investing in new and long-term areas. Such as grocery business, pharmacy . They have a satellite internet service called Amazon Kuiper ( Project Kuiper).
And there's their robo- taxi venture Zoox, which I've been following with great interest.
他们的 CEO Andy Jassy 将其描述为未来 5 到 10 年内一项自成规模的大业务。现在,Amazon 刚刚发布了第三季度财报。总体而言,这是一个相当不错的季度。
Their CEO Andy Jassy describes it as a big business in its own right in the next 5 to 10 years. Now, Amazon just released its third-quarter earnings report. Overall, it was a pretty good quarter.
AWS 收入同比增长 40%,达到 460 亿美元。这是他们五年来最快的增速,也是连续六个季度的增长。这项业务目前年收入为 1840 亿美元。
AWS revenue grew 40 percent year-over-year to $46 billion. That's their fastest growth rate in five years and six straight quarters of growth. The business is now doing $184 billion annually.
AWS 的营业利润已增长至约 180 亿美元,高于一年前的约 110 亿美元。AWS 目前约占 Amazon 总营业利润的 63%。
AWS's operating income has grown to about $18 billion, up from about $11 billion a year ago. AWS now accounts for about 63 percent of Amazon's total operating profit.
公司整体营业利润增长了 61%,达到 280 亿美元。Andy Jassy 表示,AWS 在定制芯片(如 Trenium、Graviton 和 Bedrock)上的持续投资正在推动这一增长。正在加速。
The company's overall operating income has grown 61 percent to $28 billion. Andy Jassy says that AWS's continued investment in custom chips, such as Trenium, Graviton, and Bedrock, is driving this growth. Accelerating.
总收入约为 2020 亿美元。这略低于分析师的预期。净利润略有下降,但这主要是因为 Amazon 去年在其持有的 Anthropic 股份上录得了一次性收益。所以利润底线仍然相当强劲。收入增长仍在继续。
Total revenue is about $202 billion. That's slightly below analysts' forecasts. Net income is down a bit, but that's mainly because Amazon took a one-time gain on its stake in Anthropic last year.
So the bottom line is still pretty strong. Revenue growth is continuing.
投资者不喜欢的一点——作为长期股东,我站在他们这边——是他们的滚动自由现金流已降至负 424 亿美元。
What investors didn't like —I'm on their side as a long-term shareholder—is that their trailing free cash flow has dropped to negative $42.4 billion.
此外,他们的长期债务在九个月内从 660 亿美元增加到 1730 亿美元。而与此同时,他们 2026 年的资本支出正朝着 2200 亿美元迈进。
Also, their long-term debt has increased from $66 billion to $173 billion in the space of nine months. This comes at a time when their 2026 capital expenditure is heading toward $220 billion.
Amazon 再次大举投资其 AI 增长故事。他们正在投资数据中心和芯片,并利用 AI 推动核心业务。当然,我们看到 AI 驱动的需求持续增长。他们设定了 2027 年和 2028 年增长均超过 40% 的目标。
Amazon is once again investing heavily in its AI growth story. They're investing in data centers and chips and using AI to drive core business. Of course, we're seeing AI-driven demand continue to grow.
They've set a target of more than 40 percent growth in both 2027 and 2028.
AWS 的积压订单是去年的三倍。这些数字正以百分比速度增长。本质上,负的自由现金流和不断增加的债务是为这一增长故事融资的直接成本。更多的产能、更多的芯片和更多的数据中心。在我看来,这并不是云计算、电子商务或任何其他业务陷入困境的信号。
AWS's backlog is three times that of the previous year. The numbers are growing at a percentage rate. Essentially, that negative free cash flow and the increasing debt are the direct costs of financing this growth story.
More capacity, more chips, and more data centers. In my view , this is not a signal that cloud, e-commerce, or any other business is in trouble.
作为投资者,我和所有长期投资者都应该问的问题是:这笔成本带来的回报,能否让 Amazon 实现其增长目标?Amazon 仍在实现其迄今最好的营业利润率。就 AWS 而言,这是他们五年来最快的增长。
我认为这仍然是一项非常强劲的业务,但有些数字并没有达到市场预期。
The question that I, as an investor, and all long-term investors should be asking is, will this cost return a profit that will enable Amazon to meet its growth targets? Amazon is still achieving its best operating profit margin yet.
In the case of AWS, this is their fastest growth in five years. I think it's still a very strong business, but some of the numbers haven't been as the market expected .
是的,我认为 Amazon 是有史以来最好的企业之一,而且这是一个你可以安心长期持有在投资组合中的标的。是的,会是这样,而且大概10年后它会更大,甚至可能更大。正如你所说,核心业务正变得越来越赚钱。营业利润率现在处于创纪录水平。
Yes, I think Amazon is one of the best businesses of all time and it's a name that you can safely keep in your portfolio for a long time. Yes, it will be and probably in 10 years it will be even bigger, if not bigger.
And as you said, the core business is becoming more profitable. Operating margins are now at record levels.
令人惊叹的是,AWS 预计未来两年将增长超过40%。到2028年底,该公司预计营收将超过一万亿美元。
It's amazing that AWS is expected to grow by more than 40 percent in the next two years. By the end of 2028, the company is expected to have over a trillion dollars in revenue.
Andy Jassy 说过,未来5到10年,他们将拥有两项万亿美元规模的业务。大概率一项是 AWS,另一项是其余业务。
Andy Jassy said that in the next 5 to 10 years, they will have two trillion dollar businesses. Probably one AWS and the other is the rest of the businesses.
所以是的,Amazon 确实是一家非常伟大的公司,我理解这一点。关注自由现金流非常重要,但如果你看 Amazon 过去10年,它并不一直是一家产生自由现金流的公司,因为他们一次又一次地把资金再投资到业务中。但没错,它是市场上最好的公司之一。
So yes, Amazon is a really great company and I understand that. It's very important to focus on free cash flow , but if you look at Amazon over the last 10 years, it hasn't always been a free cash flow generating company, because they've reinvested in the business over and over again.
But yes , it's one of the best companies in the market .
观察点
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 7 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。