$APP · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-10-29
给予AppLovin买入评级，信心从中等上调至高度：按12.84倍市盈率、以及其354美元的贴现现金流公允价值对比264美元的股价来看，该股显得被低估，即便在自由现金流估算下调之后也是如此；增长依然强劲，第三季度营收增长47%，下一季度预计增长45%，营业利润率接近65%至70%，不过这相较投资者的期望已属放缓。并非稳赢之选。
逐段跳播
在2025年经历了一轮迅猛上涨之后，AppLovin 的股票在2026年正面临艰难的一年，股价已下跌约50%。
After a meteoric rise in 2025, AppLovin stock is facing a tough year in 2026 as the stock price has fallen by about 50%.
公司最近公布了季度财务业绩，营收低于管理团队此前的预期。此外，管理团队向投资者表示，他们正在加大计算成本方面的投入，认为这将带来营收增长，同时改善其模型的表现，从而提升广告支出的回报率并创造更多收入，他们认为这是一个积极且良性的循环。
因此，他们愿意投入更高的成本、加大研发力度，以实现营收增长。
The company recently announced its quarterly financial results, with revenues coming in lower than the management team had anticipated. Furthermore, the management team stated to investors that they are investing in increased computing costs, believing that this will lead to increased revenues while improving the performance of their models, which will enhance the return on advertising expenditure and generate more revenue, which they consider a positive and constructive cycle.
Therefore, they are willing to invest in increased costs and intensify research and development efforts in order to achieve revenue growth.
管理层仍预计今年营收表现强劲，尤其是第三季度，他们预计中值增速为47%。但这相比投资者此前的期望有所放缓，因此股价也因这些投入而下跌。
Management still expects a strong year in terms of revenue, particularly in the third quarter, where they anticipate growth of 47 % at the midpoint. But this represents a slowdown from what investors had hoped for , and consequently the share price has fallen as a result of these investments.
所以，投资者在问我，AppLovin 股价的这次回调是否构成买入机会，而这正是我想回答的问题——我会考察这些短期动态，将其与公司的长期表现相权衡，并与估值进行比较，以判断这是否是一只值得买入的股票。
So, investors are asking me if this dip in AppLovin stock represents a buying opportunity, and that's the question I want to answer by looking at these short-term developments , weighing them against their long-term performance, and comparing them to the valuation to determine if it's an attractive stock to buy.
我提到过，分析师和投资者此前都预期 AppLovin 会有更强的表现。这也是该股在2025年涨幅如此之大的部分原因。
I mentioned that analysts and investors were expecting stronger performance from AppLovin. This is part of the reason why the stock price rose so much in 2025.
你可以看到，跟踪 AppLovin 的华尔街分析师的长期预期在过去一年里大幅下降。一年前，华尔街分析师预测 AppLovin 的每股收益在未来几年将增长50%至60%。截至录制本视频时，这些预期已降至未来几年增长32.7%。
You can see here that the long-term estimates from Wall Street analysts who follow AppLovin have fallen significantly over the past year. A year ago, Wall Street analysts were predicting that AppLovin 's earnings per share would grow by 50 to 60% over the next few years.
These estimates have decreased to 32.7% over the next few years as of the time this video was recorded.
但趋势又在改善，因为公司表示自上个季度末以来已推出该模型，其启用再次加速了营收增长。我想指出，这是我跟踪的公司中盈利能力最强的之一。因此，如果管理层愿意，他们有灵活性牺牲利润率来再投资于增长。
But the trend is improving again, as the company indicated that it had introduced that model since the end of the last quarter, and its activation has accelerated revenue growth once more.
I would like to point out that this is one of the most profitable companies I follow. Thus, management has the flexibility to reinvest in growth at the expense of margins if it chooses to do so.
不过，他们实现了66%的经营现金流与销售额之比，高于2022年的约10%。这凸显了这种商业模式有多么赚钱。而且别忘了，他们预计下个季度增长45%。所以，这是一家增速超过40%、而利润率——如果看营业利润率——接近65%至70%的公司。
However, they achieved a cash flow from operations to sales ratio of 66%, up from about 10% in 2022. This highlights just how profitable this business model is. And remember, they are expecting 45% growth in the next quarter.
So you have a company that is achieving growth exceeding 40% with margins approaching 65% to 70% if we look at operating margins.
只看业绩表现的话，这看起来像是一个有吸引力的机会。我们还没有讨论估值。但就我目前看到的情况而言，这似乎是一家应该以高估值交易的公司。
This looks like an attractive opportunity when we only look at the performance. We haven't discussed the evaluation yet. But from what I've seen so far, this seems like a company that should be trading at a high valuation.
然而，它的交易估值远谈不上高。按公司自身的市盈率衡量，其市盈率为12.84。这不仅本身便宜，而且与这家公司的业绩表现相比也便宜。
However, it is far from trading at a high valuation. Measured by the company based on its price-to-earnings ratio , it is trading at 12.84. This is not only cheap in itself, but also cheap when compared to the performance of this company.
营收增长强劲，利润率非常出色，而估值只是年初的一小部分——当时它的远期市盈率在40多倍的中段。
Revenue growth is strong, profit margins are excellent, and the valuation is a fraction of what it was at the beginning of the year when it was trading at a forward price-to- earnings ratio in the mid- 40s.
有鉴于此，当我以现金流折现为基础评估这家公司时，我最近几次的评估结果都更低。所以，我在2026年初对这只股票的乐观似乎过头了，而我对公司今年乃至长期将产生的自由现金流金额的预期修正也已下调。
In recognition of this, when evaluating the company on a discounted cash flow basis, my last few reviews were lower. So it seems my optimism about the stock was overblown at the beginning of 2026, and my revisions regarding the amount of free cash flow I expect the company to generate not only this year, but in the long term, have decreased.
但即便下调了这些预期，我为 AppLovin 计算出的公允价值估计仍是354美元。相比当前264美元的市场价格，当我用现金流折现模型衡量这家公司时，它似乎仍被低估。
But even with those estimates reduced, the fair value estimate I calculated for AppLovin is $354. Compared to the current market price of $264, it also appears to be undervalued when I measure the company using my discounted cash flow model.
所以，无论我如何给这家公司估值，无论是按市盈率还是按现金流折现，它似乎都被低估了。因此，自2024年以来我一直将 AppLovin 股票评为买入机会。2025年的出色表现让我非常满意，但2026年这里的疲弱表现让我失望。
So regardless of how I value the company, whether on a price-to- earnings basis or on a discounted cash flow basis, it appears to be undervalued. Therefore, I have rated AppLovin stock as a buy opportunity since 2024.
I was very pleased to see the great performance in 2025, but disappointed to see the weak performance here in 2026.
我上一次更新这一评级是在8月6日，当时我以中等程度的信心认为它是一个不错的买入机会。今天，我不仅确认该公司的买入评级，还将我的信心水平从中等上调至高度。
I last updated this rating on August 6 with a moderate level of conviction that it is a good buy opportunity. Today, I am not only confirming the company's buy rating , but I am also raising my confidence level from medium to high.
这并不意味着它一定会赢，只意味着我认为这是一个很好的买入机会。我相信对投资者来说，这个风险回报比是值得的，而且我对这一判断非常有信心。
This does not mean it is a guaranteed winner, it only means that I think it is a great buying opportunity. I believe the risk-to- reward ratio is worthwhile for investors, and I am very confident in this assessment.
当然，我最近在表格里新增的功能之一，就是跟踪这些信心程度的变化和方向的变化。所以今天，我把这个评级上调了，对吧？从中等信心上调到高信心，我是在2026年10月27日这么做的。
Of course, one of the more recent features I've added to my spreadsheet is tracking these changes in conviction and changes in direction. So today, I upgraded this rating, didn't I ?
From medium to high conviction, and I did that on October 27, 2026.
现在我们可以看看这只股票会如何表现，并根据我信心程度的变化，判断这个估值是对还是错，今年晚些时候我回顾这家公司时就会看到结果。
Now we can see how the stock will perform and based on my change of conviction, whether it is a correct or incorrect valuation , and we will see that when I review this company later this year.
这个频道对 $APP 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。