$APP · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-10-30
在营收低于管理层给出的最低预测、且公司表示成本将上升之后，AppLovin 跌至 263 美元，接近其 255 美元的 52 周低点。即便在下调自由现金流估算并更新 DCF 之后，说话者仍认为其被低估，354 美元的公允价值意味着未来 12 至 18 个月约有 35% 的上行空间。
逐段跳播
我要重点讲的下一个股票是 AppLovin，它在 2025 年表现很好，股价上涨，但 2026 年要艰难得多。
The next stock I will highlight is AppLovin, which had a great 2025 in which its stock price rose, but 2026 was much more challenging.
公司最近公布的收入低于管理层给出的最低预测，同时还告诉投资者其成本将会上升。因此，这一双重打击让投资者极为悲观，股价跌至接近 52 周最低水平的 263 美元。要知道，52 周最低水平是 255 美元。
The company recently announced revenues below the minimum forecast provided by management, and also told investors that its costs would be rising. Therefore, this double blow caused great pessimism among investors, and the stock price fell to near its lowest level in 52 weeks at $263.
Remember that the lowest level in 52 weeks is $255.
根据管理团队提供的修订后估计，我更新了公司的现金流折现模型，并下调了我对公司预期产生的自由现金流金额的预期。不过，即使做了这些调整，这只股票看起来仍然被低估。
Based on the revised estimates provided by the management team, I updated the company's discounted cash flow model and lowered my expectations for the amount of free cash flow I expect the company to generate .
However, even after making those adjustments, the stocks appear to be undervalued.
我计算出公司的公允价值为 354 美元，与当前市场价格相比，未来 12 到 18 个月似乎有约 35% 的上涨空间。
I calculated the fair value of the company at $354 , and compared to the current market price , there appears to be potential for an upside of about 35% over the next 12 to 18 months .
这个频道对 $APP 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。