$APP · Invest with Henry · 2026-11-01
APP 在下跌 65% 后成为一家折价的高质量企业：上季度盈利增长 53%，营收约 68 亿美元，自由现金流 45 亿美元，营业利润率约 78%，Rule of 40 得分远超 100。说话者持乐观态度，但称其是自己风险最高的选股之一——广告支出并非抗衰退，营收略未达标，诉讼与做空者也在施压——因此他会保持小仓位，且股价可能进一步下跌。
逐段跳播
Applavin 是一只我此前没有在这个频道讨论过的新股票，但我研究过它，想介绍给你们，因为这只股票较其高点下跌了约65%，而上一季度盈利增长了53%。
Applavin is a new stock that I haven't discussed on this channel before, but I researched it and wanted to introduce it to you because the stock is down about 65% from its high, while earnings grew 53% last quarter.
我认为现在是谈论这只股票的好时机，因为我第一次讨论一只股票时，不想在它价格最高的时候谈。但在看到65%的股价下跌所创造的价值和安全性之后，我告诉我的投资社群：“这只股票相当不错。”
当我审视这家公司时，我发现他们未来的目标或指引也相当不错。也就是说，他们处于增长之中，指引也非常强劲。所以，尽管业务持续增长，股价却越来越便宜。这正是我喜欢看到的那种情况。
I think this is a good time to talk about this stock, because the first time I discuss a stock, I do n't want to talk about it at its highest price. But after seeing the value and security created by a 65% price drop, I tell my investing community, "This stock is pretty good."
When I look at the company, I see that their future goals or guidance are also quite good. That is, they are in growth and their guidance is also very strong. So, even though the business continues to grow, the share price is getting cheaper.
This is exactly the kind of situation I like to see.
所以，我在 AppLovin 身上看到了一点这种情况，因为股价已经大幅下跌，即使它不是有史以来的最低点，也仍然是非常好的买入价格。
So, I see a bit of that in AppLovin , because the stock has come down a lot and even if it's not the lowest it's ever been , it's still a very good price to buy the stock.
这就是它的商业模式。应用有空的广告位。Applavin 挑选广告并展示给最有可能付费的客户，广告主为这项基础服务向 Applavin 付费。他们越擅长这件事——这基本上就是 Meta 在做的事，也是我在这个频道上如此多地谈论 Meta 的原因——因为广告就像一台印钞机。
所以，广告主提供的预算越多，Applavin 的效率就越高。所以，这基本上是一个他们获得更多数据并改进算法的循环。
So, this is its business model. Apps have empty advertising space. Applavin selects the ads and shows them to the customers who are most likely to pay, and advertisers pay Applavin for that basic service.
The more they become skilled at it , which is basically what Meta is doing, and why I talk so much about Meta on this channel, is because advertising is like a money-printing machine.
So, the more budget advertisers provide, the more efficient Applavin becomes. So, it's basically a cycle where they get more data and improve their algorithms.
而且由于他们基本上在使用机器学习——我现在说的是 Applavine。由于他们使用机器学习，模型使用得越多就越好。所以，预算越多，模型越好。模型越好，预算越多。可以把它想象成飞轮效应，这是我们看到的增长的一大原因。
And since they are basically using machine learning , I am now talking about Applavine. Since they use machine learning , the more the model is used, the better it gets. So, the more budget, the better model.
Better models, more budget. Think of it like a flywheel effect and it's a big reason for the growth we're seeing.
现在，我们来谈谈数字。过去12个月，营收约为68亿美元，自由现金流约为45亿美元。上一季度，营业利润率约为78%，这对该业务来说盈利能力极强。
Now, let's talk about the numbers. Over the past 12 months, revenue was approximately $6.8 billion and free cash flow was approximately $4.5 billion. Last quarter, operating margins were around 78%, which is incredibly profitable for the business.
有一个叫“40法则”的东西。它简单地把一家公司的增长率和自由现金流利润率相加，任何超过40的都被认为非常强劲。Applavin 远超100，我在这里不是开玩笑。这极其罕见。
There is a thing called the Rule of 40. It simply adds up a company's growth rate and its free cash flow margin, and anything over 40 is considered very strong. Applavin is well over 100 and I'm not kidding here. This is extremely rare.
所以，当我审视这只股票时，我看到它下跌了65%。在我看来，这是一个非常好的机会。当然，它并不完美。现金略多于债务，大约30亿对约35亿的债务。而且任何与广告相关的东西都不是抗衰退的，因为广告主在经济衰退期间也会收缩。
So, when I look at the stock, I see it's down 65%. In my opinion, this is a really great opportunity. Of course, it's not perfect. There is slightly more cash than debt , about 3 billion against about 3.5 billion in debt.
And anything related to advertising is not recession-proof, because advertisers also retreat during recessions.
上一季度，Applavin 略微未达到自己的营收目标，股价在一天之内下跌了近20%。所以，它极其不稳定，同时又非常有趣。所以，风险大的地方，机会也大。所以，我不会在这个仓位上投入太多，当然我不是财务顾问，所以我希望你们自己做研究，尤其是涉及小盘股的时候。
Last quarter, Applavin narrowly missed its own revenue target, and the stock fell nearly 20% in a single day. So, it is extremely unstable and at the same time very interesting.
So, where there is a lot of risk, there is also a lot of opportunity. So, I would n't invest too much in this position, and of course I'm not a financial advisor, so I'd like you to do your own research, especially when it comes to small-cap companies.
看着 Appalavien 时，我真的不能这么说。这里有很多机会，但它不是稳赢的，不像今年早些时候我对待 AMD 那样。
I can't really say the same when looking at Appalavien. There are many opportunities here, but it's not a sure bet , as it was for me with AMD earlier this year.
还有股东诉讼和做空者在追击这家公司。所以，我对此毫不隐瞒。你应该知道，这是我11只股票名单中风险最高的股票之一。不过，在我看来，它是一家高质量的企业，而股价下跌了65%。所以，这是真实的事实。
是的，它下跌是有真实原因的，而且可能继续走低，但我在这里相当乐观，考虑到这只股票目前获得的折扣有多大，以及他们拥有多少营收和现金流。
There are also shareholder lawsuits and short sellers coming after the company. So , I'm not hiding any of this. You should be aware that this is one of the riskiest stocks on my list of 11 stocks.
Still, in my opinion it's a high-quality business and the stock is down 65%. So, this is a real fact. Yes, it's down for a real reason and could go lower, but I'm pretty optimistic here, given how much of a discount the stock is getting right now and how much revenue and cash flow they have.