$ARM · Jose Najarro Stocks · 2026-10-31
ARM 是他的第三选择：很多利好似乎已被计入价格，估值不符合他的风险回报要求，不过他对 ARM 的表现并无负面质疑。他提到的上行空间来自授权/版税协议，以及一款自 2026 年底开始出货的 AGI CPU，其需求超过产能；他担心的是时间点。
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AMD 的股价下跌了约 11%，Qualcomm 下跌超过 11%，ARM 下跌约 10%。
AMD's stock fell by about 11%, Qualcomm's by more than 11%, and ARM's by about 10%.
然后你还有 ARM，对吧？ARM 在这个中央处理器（CPU）市场有两种不同的方式。第一种是授权费和版税。他们与目前任何制造中央处理器（CPU）的人合作。Nvidia 制造大量中央处理器。
嗯……Google 有一个“Axion”处理器。Microsoft 也有东西。也许你忘了他们有什么。而 Amazon 有一个“Graviton”处理器。所有参与者都制造自己的中央处理器。
根据他们拥有的合作关系，会收取某种形式的授权费或版税。
And then you also have ARM, right? ARM has two different approaches to this central processing unit (CPU) market. The first is licensing fees and royalties. They work with anyone who currently manufactures a central processing unit (CPU).
Nvidia builds a lot of central processing units. Um... Google has an "Axion" processor. Microsoft has something too. Perhaps you forgot who they have. Amazon, on the other hand, has a "Graviton" processor.
All players build their own central processing units. There is some form of licensing or royalty fee depending on the partnership they have.
ARM 也在开发自己的图形处理器，即 AGI CPU（人工智能处理器）。抱歉，是 CPU 处理器，不是 GPU。这些产品很快就会上市销售。AGI CPU 预计将于 2026 年底开始商业出货。
目前，他们的支持产能约为十亿美元。但据说需求超过二十亿美元，我认为这至少是二比一。
ARM is also developing its own graphics processor, the AGI CPU (Artificial Intelligence Processor). Sorry, CPU processor, not GPU. These products will be available for sale very soon.
Commercial shipments of the AGI CPU are expected to begin in late 2026. Currently, they have a support capacity of approximately one billion dollars. But demand is described as exceeding two billion dollars, which is at least two to one, I believe.
因此，短缺可能是一个促成因素，也可能为 ARM 带来优势。这里的问题更多与时机因素有关。对我来说，如果我必须选择一个参与者，能够
Therefore, the shortage may be a contributing factor or may provide an advantage to ARM. Here the issue is more related to the timing factor. For me, if I had to choose one player who could
对 ARM 来说，合作伙伴的回报无疑是一大胜利。AGI CPU 也将在今年下半年出现。任何关于此事的讨论都可能对该股形成利好。至于 ARM，似乎已经消化了很多预期。
For ARM, the partners' returns are certainly a big win. AGI CPUs will also appear in the second half of this year . Any discussions about this could be exciting for the stock .
As for ARM , it seems that a lot has already been priced in.
ARM 会是我的第三选择。后者仍将是 ARM。我并不一定是在负面地质疑她的表现。只是估值与我的风险回报比不匹配。我想甚至可能是 ARM 的利润。
ARM would be my third choice. The latter will remain ARM. I am not necessarily questioning her performance negatively. It's just that the valuation doesn't match my risk-to-reward ratio. I think maybe even ARM's profits .