$ARM · Invest with Henry · 2026-11-01
ARM 已较年初高点下跌约一半，但盈利仍增长 22%；其授权/版税模式推动营收增长 22% 至创纪录的 12.9 亿美元，自由现金流利润率约 27%，Rule of 40 得分接近 49，持有 39 亿美元现金且无长期债务。其估值仍不便宜，内存价格高企正在压低智能手机版税，与 Qualcomm 的授权纠纷也笼罩其上，但说话者预计 ARM 在 11 月 4 日财报发布后将上涨。
逐段跳播
看看 ARM，自今年年初的高点以来，股价已下跌约一半，但盈利仍以22%的速度增长。他们拥有约39亿美元的现金和短期投资，没有长期债务。
Looking at ARM, the stock has fallen by about half since its high at the beginning of this year , but earnings are still growing at a rate of 22%. They have about $3.9 billion in cash and short-term investments and no long-term debt.
现在，另一方面说到 ARM，他们为世界上大量芯片设计蓝图。每个设备都需要一个大脑，而 ARM 设计了许多这样的脑。芯片制造商向 ARM 支付授权费。接下来，基本上把它想象成一条收费公路。
作为投资者，你应该看看 ARM，看看他们所有的现金流。它基本上就是授权费，非常稳定，很像一条收费公路。所以，每颗芯片都要交过路费，即每笔销售都要交版税。所以，芯片出货量越多，ARM 赚的钱就越多。
就像通过的汽车越多，收费机构赚的收入就越多，对吧？
Now, speaking of ARM on the other hand , they design the blueprints for a large number of chips in the world. Every device needs a brain, and ARM designs many of those brains. Chip manufacturers pay licensing fees to ARM.
Next, basically consider it like a toll road. Okay , so as an investor you should look at ARMs and see all their cash flow. And it's basically licensing fees, which are very consistent, which is a lot like a toll road.
So, each chip pays a toll, a royalty on each sale. So, the more chip shipments, the more money ARM will make. It's like the more cars that pass through the toll, the more revenue the toll authority makes, right?
上一季度营收增长22%，达到创纪录的12.9亿美元，过去12个月自由现金流接近14亿美元，约占营收的27%。所以，如果把22%的增长和27%的利润率相加，根据40法则，它接近49。
这是 AppLovin 的数字吗？不过，49是一个非常不错的分数。
Revenue rose 22% last quarter to a record $1.29 billion, and free cash flow was nearly $1.4 billion over the past 12 months , about 27% of revenue. So, if you add 22% growth and 27% margin , it comes close to 49 according to the Rule of 40.
Is this AppLovin's number? However, 49 is a very good score.
现在，真正的问题来了。ARM 并不便宜，因为即使股价下跌之后，它相对于盈利的交易价格仍然高得多。内存的高价格正在增加手机的成本，并减少智能手机的版税。此外，与 Qualcomm 的授权纠纷也笼罩着这只股票。
Now, here's the real problem. ARM is not cheap, as even after the price drop, it is still trading at a much higher price relative to its earnings. The high price of memory is increasing the cost of phones , and it is reducing smartphone royalties.
In addition, a licensing dispute with Qualcomm is also hanging over the stock.
ARM 将在11月4日发布财报，所以预计会有重大变化，我认为 ARM 会在财报后上涨。
ARM will release their earnings report on November 4th , so a big change is expected and I think ARM will rise after the earnings report.