ASML 估值过高，当前价格需要持续的利润增长，风险过大，导致长期预期回报偏低。
逐段跳播
下一家公司，ASML，另一家 AI 机器制造商，在过去一年半里表现非常好，市值翻了一倍多。市盈率现在是 60。以前是二十几。
The next company, ASML, another AI machine manufacturer, has done really well over the past year and a half, more than doubling in value. The price-to-earnings ratio is now 60. It was in the twenties.
如果你从 2025 年 3 月的角度来看，看，ASML 风险略高一些，但它提供 12% 的回报。现在，它被定价为买入即买入一家企业，因为价格已经上涨，但公司还是那家公司。如果我们讨论前景，从他们长期前景的积极面来看，已经略有改善。
If you look at this from the perspective of March 2025, look, ASML is a bit riskier, but it offers a 12% return. Now, it is priced as a buy-as-a-business because the price has gone up, but the company is still the same.
If we discuss the outlook, it has improved slightly on the positive side of their long-term outlook.
当我算一下，到 2030 年营收是 600 亿，或者 60 多亿。盈利能力，净利润率 30%，也就是 200 亿。要证明当前 6100 亿的市值合理，当他们达到 200 亿时，他们需要把净利润再翻一倍，然后再翻一倍，才能给你带来良好回报。
所以，已经被定价进去的，是未来十五到二十年一次又一次的翻倍。这太冒险了，支付 60 倍市盈率有点疯狂。
When I do the math, it's 60 billion in revenue by 2030, or 60 and something. Profitability, net profit margin 30%, i.e. 20 billion. To justify the current market value of 610 billion, when they reach 20 billion, they need to double the net profit again and then double it again to give you a good return.
So, what has been priced in is one doubling after another for the next fifteen or twenty years. This is too risky, and it's a bit crazy to pay a P/E ratio of 60.
我们还有 ASML。你可以在下方描述里的链接中，从我的免费课程里免费下载这个。这里有一些情景，我们会在这次概览中为大多数公司讨论。每股收益：他们需要多少增长才能证明当前股价合理？
市盈率应该在哪里？他们需要继续以每年 15% 增长，市盈率需要达到 40，这有点高。让我们设为 25，然后你会看到，相对于其内在价值，现在 1600 的价格很贵。繁荣时期，未来十年每年增长 20%。
好，未来市盈率 30。现值，好。这就是已经被定价的东西。较慢的增长率，仍然是一个不错的市盈率，回到我们一年前的位置。这不是线性的，也不是预测性的。这是可以接受的。这很有意思。如果市场转为负面，那才是我可能关注一家公司的时候。
在这里我可能获得安全边际。这显示了现在被定价的是什么，比方说这是平均水平。
We also have ASML. You can download this for free from the link in the description below in my free course. Here are some scenarios that we will discuss for most companies during this overview.
Earnings per share: how much growth do they need to justify the current share price? Where should the price-to-earnings ratio be? They need to continue growing at 15% annually, and their price-to-earnings ratio needs to be at 40, which is a little high.
Let's make it 25, and then you'll see that it's expensive now at 1600 compared to its intrinsic value. Prosperous times, 20 % growth every year for the next ten years. Okay, a future price-to-earnings ratio of 30.
Present value, okay. This is what was priced. Slower growth rate, still a good price-to-earnings ratio where we were a year ago. This is not linear, and this is not predictive.
This is acceptable. This is interesting. If the market turns negative, that's where I might look at a company. Here I might get a margin of safety. This shows what is being priced now, let's say this is an average.
简而言之，ASML 极其昂贵，很可能带来较低的长期回报。这就是为什么我把它放在这里，比整体市场风险略高一些，因为它充满了人工智能。是的，存在经济护城河等等，但所有人都在追逐它们。
所以，我在风险一侧把它调高了一点，也就是风险更低，因为我把风险改成了市场风险。
In short, ASML is extremely expensive and is likely to result in a low long-term return. That's why I put it here, a little more risky than the market as a whole because it's full of artificial intelligence.
Yes, there is an economic trench and everything, but everyone is after them. So, I raised it a little on the risk side, which is less risk because I am changing the risk to market risk.
这个频道对 $ASML 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。