AVGO当前股价高于其计算得出的平均内在价值，因此并非强力买入标的。
逐段跳播
福布斯买入名单上的第一只股票是Broadcom，一家芯片和软件巨头，已成为人工智能领域真正的巨兽。上个季度，其营收跃升了86%，仅AI芯片的销售就暴增221%，达到167亿美元。管理层预计下个季度会更多，约为217亿美元。
The first stock on Forbes' buy list is Broadcom, a chip and software giant that has become a true behemoth in the field of artificial intelligence. In the last quarter, its revenue jumped by 86%, and sales of AI chips alone exploded by 221% to reach $16.7 billion.
Management expects more in the next quarter, around $21.7 billion.
它既制造定制AI芯片，也制造连接全国每个人都在争论的巨型AI数据中心的网络设备。它已将近一半的营收转化为现金，约30%的销售是稳定的软件，其自身以约30%的速度增长，使整个公司更加平衡。
It manufactures both custom AI chips and networking equipment that connect the giant AI data centers that everyone in the country is arguing about. It has converted nearly half of its revenue into cash, and about 30% of its sales are stable software that is growing by about 30% on its own, making the whole company more balanced.
悲观者的论点是什么？嗯，它严重依赖少数几家巨型客户。其前五大客户占销售的55%。所以，即使这五大客户中的一家削减AI支出或开始自研芯片，它也会很快受到打击。它一连串的成功完全取决于人工智能支出保持非常强劲。
What is the argument of pessimists? Well, it relies heavily on a small handful of giant clients. Its top five customers account for 55% of sales. So, even if one of these five big customers were to cut back on AI spending or start building its own chips, it would be hit very quickly.
Its string of successes depends entirely on spending on artificial intelligence remaining very strong.
那么，现在让我们来数数。好，各位，这就是Broadcom，这是一个提醒。我们在节目中已经回顾了几个乐观者和悲观者的案例。如果你点击这里的人工智能，再点击这里查看乐观和悲观案例，你就能随手获得该公司的各三个案例。
So, let's count the numbers now. Okay, here's Broadcom, folks, and that's a reminder. We have reviewed a few cases of optimists and pessimists in our program. If you click here on artificial intelligence, and here to see the optimistic and pessimistic cases, you will get three cases of each for the company at your fingertips.
所以，各位，当我看公司的价格时，我不看股价。市场价值就是公司的价格。它是流通股数量乘以股价。我接下来做的是看组织的价值主张。市值是1.72万亿美元。组织的价值是1.79万亿美元。
这个差额是700亿美元。本质上，这是公司所欠的债务。你现在可能在想，对自己说：这是一个非常大的数字。好，等一下。各位，我去年产生了近400亿美元的自由现金流。所以，它产生了400亿美元的自由现金流，对应700亿美元的债务。这不是一笔大债务。我非常喜欢这一点。
So, guys, when I look at the company's price, I don't look at the share price. Market value is the price of the company. It is the number of outstanding shares multiplied by the share price.
The next thing I do is go to the value proposition of the organization. The market capitalization is $1.72 trillion. The value of the organization is $1.79 trillion. This difference is $70 billion.
Essentially, this is the debt owed by the company. You might now be thinking and saying to yourself: This is a very large amount. Okay, wait a moment. Guys, I generated nearly $40 billion in free cash flow last year.
So, it generated $40 billion in free cash flow against $70 billion in debt. This is not a big debt. I like that very much.
接下来，是不断提高的高资本回报率。这是高质量工艺的标志。过去五年每年17.4%，并且正朝着20%迈进。现在，有些我不太喜欢的东西。他们的利润率正在改善。你可能坐在那里说：“你为什么不喜欢这个？”
嗯，看看它有多高。10年的平均利润率是29%，5年是33%，一年是43%。与10年平均相比，它增长了近50%。所以，对我来说，这意味着这是一个需求驱动的现象，可能是暂时的。如果它是持续的，这个比率会低得多。
这打开了更多竞争的大门，因为人们看到他们赚了多少钱。
Next, high returns on capital that are constantly improving. A sign of quality workmanship. 17.4% annually over the past five years, and is heading towards 20%. Now, something I don't like very much.
Their profit margin is improving. You might sit there and say, "Why don't you like that?" Well, look how high it is. The average profit margin for 10 years is 29%, for 5 years 33%, and for one year 43%.
It has increased by almost 50% compared to the 10-year average. So, for me, this means it is a demand-driven phenomenon and may be temporary. If it were continuous, this rate would be much lower.
This opens the door to more competition as people see how much money they are making.
当然，看看营收增长。它越来越加速。10年的营收增长是每年23%，5年是27.5%，3年是36%。这是一个巨大的营收增长率。
And of course, look at revenue growth. It is accelerating more and more. Revenue growth over 10 years is 23% annually, over 5 years 27.5%, and over 3 years 36%. This is a tremendous rate of revenue growth.
现在，让我们来看看这八大支柱，看看它们告诉我们什么故事。好，各位，我不喜欢的一件事是他们在减少股东的份额。各位，这意味着他们在发行更多股票。你可能坐在那里说：“那有什么问题？”
各位，这可能是投资的无声杀手。假设一家公司有10股流通股，你拥有1股。你拥有公司的10%。如果他们再增加2股，他们就从10股变成12股，但你仍然拥有1股。这意味着你拥有12股中的1股，而不是10股中的1股，你的所有权从10%下降到8.3%。因此，这是股东权益的稀释。
Now, let's take a look at the eight pillars to see what story they tell us. Okay guys, one thing I don't like is that they're reducing the shareholders' share. What this means, guys, is that they are issuing more shares.
You might sit there and say, "What's the problem with that?" Guys, this could be the silent killer of investing. Let's assume a company has 10 outstanding shares and you own one share.
You own 10% of the company. If they add two more shares, they go from 10 shares to 12 shares, but you still own one share. This means you own one out of 12 shares instead of one out of 10, and your ownership has decreased from 10% to 8.3%.
Therefore, this is a reduction of the shareholders' stake.
除了5年市盈率和5年自由现金流率之外，其他一切都很好；如果公司能像过去那样以高利润率持续增长，这两个指标或许是可以接受的。
Everything else is good except for the 5-year price-to-earnings ratio and the 5-year free cash flow rate, which might be acceptable if the company continues to grow as it has done with high profit margins.
各位，我已经看过一些指标了，也许你们能明白我为什么在YouTube上讲课。没有人谈论这些东西，但它们是需要被理解的重要东西。我已经看过一些关键指标，以及这八大支柱中的一些。如果你想跟我用同一种语言交流，我鼓励你做一件非常简单的事，尤其是如果你正处在投资旅程的起点。
点击下方的链接，下载我们完全免费的关键指标PDF。这份文件会解释所有这些关键指标、它们的含义以及如何计算它们。这样，你会对投资更加熟悉，我们也能在接下来的过程中用同一种语言交流。
再快速提醒一下，几分钟后，我会根据我自己的假设，给出我愿意为该股支付的价格。
Guys, I've already reviewed some of the metrics and maybe you can see why I teach on YouTube. Nobody talks about these things, but they are important things that need to be understood.
I have reviewed some of the key metrics, and some of these eight pillars. If you want to speak my language, I encourage you to do something very simple, especially if you are at the beginning of your investment journey.
Click on the link below and download our completely free PDF of key metrics. This document will explain all of these key metrics, what they mean, and how to calculate them. In this way, you will become more familiar with investing and we can speak the same language as we move forward.
And a quick reminder, in a few minutes, I will outline the price I am willing to pay for the stock based on my own assumptions.
在讲那个之前，我们先看看分析师对这家公司的看法。各位，分析师极其乐观。他们预计未来四年利润将增长两倍，从每股约11.50美元增至每股35美元。讽刺的是，他们预测营收从1050亿增长到2900亿，然后又下降到1400亿。
这些分析师看的东西可能有问题。我觉得这相当令人意外。
Before we get to that, let's take a look at what analysts think about this company. Guys, the analysts are extremely optimistic. They expect profits to triple over the next four years, from about $11.50 per share to $35 per share.
Ironically, they are forecasting revenue growth from 105 billion to 290 billion and then a drop to 140 billion. There may be something wrong with what these analysts are looking at. I find this rather surprising.
所以，各位，我们有了一个故事，也有了一些数字。让我们把它们放在一起，根据我们对未来的假设，算出这家公司对我们的价值。好，各位，我在做一项10年分析。我的任务是为所有这些类别做出低、中、高三种假设。
首先是营收增长。我会假设未来十年的营收增长率为15%、20%和25%。我希望你们记住，我其实并不相信这个。对我来说，这非常乐观，但我只是想看看在这些乐观假设下会是什么样子。现在，有人可能会说：“Paul，给我们你诚实的看法。”
好。我会用5%、15%和25%的营收增长率。现在，你可能会说：“Paul，5%太低了。”
So, guys, we have a story and we have some numbers. Let's put them together and figure out the value of the company to us based on our assumptions about the future. Okay guys, I'm conducting a 10-year analysis.
My task is to make low, medium, and high assumptions for all these categories. First, revenue growth. I will assume revenue growth rates of 15%, 20% and 25% for the next ten years.
I want you to keep in mind that I don't actually believe this. To me, this is very optimistic, but I just want to see how it will look based on these optimistic assumptions. Now, some might say, "Paul, give us your honest opinion."
Good. I will use revenue growth rates of 5%, 15% and 25%. Now, you might say, "Paul, 5% is too low."
接下来是利润率。我填入了23%、27%和31%。我要说的一点是，他们的自由现金流比利润率好得多，但利润率现在开始赶上来了。所以，那个大幅跃升或许是可以接受的，因为如果你看这里，他们在过去五到十年里实现了约43%到44%的自由现金流，而利润才刚刚开始赶上。
这是一个好迹象。我喜欢我在这里看到的东西。因此，我会把重点放在自由现金流上，采用38%、42%和46%的比率。
Next, the profit margin. I put in 23 %, 27% and 31%. One thing I would say is that their free cash flow is much better than their profit margin, but the profit margin is starting to catch up now.
So, that big jump might be acceptable because if you look here, they've achieved about 43% to 44% free cash flow over the past five to ten years, while profits are only just starting to catch up with them.
This is a good sign here. I like what I see here. Therefore, I will focus on free cash flow at rates of 38%, 42% and 46%.
接下来，市盈率（PE）是多少？在我10年后分析结束时，我会给Broadcom什么样的市价与自由现金流倍数？不是当前价格，不是5年后，而是在我分析结束时。各位，我建议的处理方式是，市场平均水平在15到16之间，长期来看也许是17。
这家公司比市场上的普通公司更好吗？我会说是的。因此，我会给它一个价格溢价。它有很高的资本回报率和良好的利润率。我会填入16、19和22。
Next, what is the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio? What price-to-free cash flow multiple would I assign to Broadcom at the end of my analysis 10 years from now? Not the current price, not after 5 years, but at the end of my analysis.
Guys, the way I would suggest to deal with this is that the market average is between 15 and 16, and maybe 17 over long periods. Is this company better than the average company in the market?
I would say that it is. Therefore, I will give it a price premium. It has high returns on capital and good profit margins. I will put the values 16, 19, and 22.
最后，是9.5%回报率下不含安全边际的内在价值。我不是要根据这个回报率来确定我愿意支付的价格。我是想找出它的公允市场价值。从那里，我可以确定一个安全边际，以便以更便宜的价格买入。
所以，按下分析按钮。该股价格为350。我得到的低价是120，高价是850，平均价是330。对我来说，各位，这只股票并没有在尖叫“买我”，但我的假设和别人不同。你的假设可能和我的不同，这就是为什么你可以把你自己的假设输入股票分析工具。
Finally, the intrinsic value without a safety margin for a return of 9.5%. I am not trying to determine the price I am willing to pay based on this return. I am trying to find out its fair market value.
From there, I can determine a safety margin to buy it at a cheaper price. So, press the analyze button. The stock is at a price of 350. I have a low price of 120, a high price of 850, and an average price of 330.
For me, guys, the stock isn't screaming "buy me," but I'm making different assumptions than others. Your assumptions may differ from mine, which is why you can enter your own assumptions into the stock analysis tool.
这个频道对 $AVGO 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。