AVGO 估值偏低，64 的 PEG 与 54% 的利润率支撑看多逻辑，但 Anthropic 相关贷款带来集中度风险。
逐段跳播
所以你得问自己，如果你能买到Fair Isaac FICO，这就像是站在Trump交易的另一端，你能以一个1倍peg买到它，那你是去买FICO的1倍peg，还是去买Broadcom那种大约7倍peg？
So then you have to ask yourself, you know, if you could get Fair Isaac FICO, which is like taking the opposite end of the Trump trade, you get this for a one peg, do you go to FICO for a one peg or do you go to Broadcom and get like a 7 peg?
软件。就净利润率而言，软件和销售，对吧？就净利润率而言，Broadcom大约高出14个百分点，约为54%。所以，在像Broadcom这样的公司，你能得到比FICO更便宜的估值和更好的利润率。
所以，尽管FICO那个下跌很诱人，我不确定你会想站在那笔交易的另一端。
uh software. As far as net margins, software and sales, right? As far as net margins at Broadcom were about 14 percentage points higher at about 54%. So you get a cheaper valuation and better margins at a company like Broadcom than you do at FICO.
So, as desirable as that dip is on FICO, I don't know that you want to take the opposite end of that trade.
所以，显然，Broadcom有一些集中度风险。有说法称他们向Anthropic借出400亿美元。那只会加速集中度风险。
So, obviously, Broadcom has some concentration risk. You know, there's talk about them lending $40 billion to Anthropic. That just accelerates concentration risk.
但如果我把他们10月31日的EPS除以他们现在的股价，他们的交易倍数约为29.8倍。而他们未来4年的预期增长预计为45。所以29除以45，这只股票的交易peg为64，而它的利润率literally有54%。这简直是疯狂。
But if I divide uh their October 31st EPS into their price right now, they're trading for about 29.8 times. and their forecast growth over the next 4 years is expected to be 45.
So 29 divided by 45 this stock is trading for a 64 peg and it literally has margins of 54%. That's insanity.
54%应该能支撑，我的意思是这不是ARR，但大概在27倍peg这个区间，我觉得这几乎算合理了，在这些利润率下27倍，这些是Nvidia级别的利润率，不，不完全是，不，它们确实是，它们实际上就是Nvidia级别的净利润率，是的，它们实际上有着与Nvidia相似的毛利率。
54% should justify I mean it's not ARR uh but um probably in the range of like a 27 peg you know I think that's almost reasonable a 27 at these margins these are Nvidia level margin h not quite no they are they're actually Nvidia level net margins yeah they actually have similar to Nvidia level gross margins
所以27，呃抱歉，2.7倍我们预测的EPS 1167，乘以我们这里预期的增长率，大约是45。这可能是一只1400美元的股票。所以这想起来很疯狂，但它向你展示了这只狗现在有多便宜。
So 27 uh or sorry 2.7 times our um forecast EPS of 1167 times the growth rate that we're expecting here which was about 45. You know this could be a $1,400 stock. So that's insane to think about but it shows you how cheap this dog is right now.
现在，公平地说，它很大，对吧？它是一家1.6万亿美元的公司，但它大是有原因的。所以，这实际上很了不起。真的吗？因为Broadcom便宜30%，利润率还更好。这实际上有点疯狂。
Now, it's big in fairness, right? It's a $1.6 trillion company, but it's big for a reason. So, it's actually remarkable. Really? Because Broadcom's 30% cheaper with better margins. It's actually kind of wild.
是收紧放贷可能会放缓人工智能的建设吗？我的意思是，我们刚刚看到Broadcom承诺向Anthropic提供超过400亿美元的贷款，这当然是循环的，对吧？贷款流向Anthropic，然后Anthropic把它花在定制芯片设计上，花在Broadcom的定制芯片设计上，这确实在市场引发了一些紧张，人们会说，我不知道，老兄，这太循环了，对吧？
Is it tightening lending that potentially is going to slow down the artificial intelligence buildout? I mean, we just had Broadcom promise over $40 billion of lending to Anthropic, which of course is circular, right?
The lending goes to Anthropic and then Anthropic spends it on custom spends it on custom chip designs at Broadcom and that does lead to some nervousness in the markets where people were like, I don't know, man, it's too circular, right?
这个频道对 $AVGO 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 12 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。