AVGO 被低估，合理价值 523 美元，对比当前 353 美元，意味着 12-18 个月内存在超过 48% 的上行空间，动力来自营收与利润扩张以及产能满载。
逐段跳播
我将重点介绍的四只被低估的半导体股票中，第一只是 Broadcom。Broadcom 是一家帮助 Alphabet 这类公司开发自有加速计算芯片的公司。
The first of the four undervalued semiconductor stocks that I will highlight is Broadcom. Broadcom is a company that helps companies like Alphabet develop their own accelerated computing chips.
Broadcom 经历了一轮销售热潮，从各方面衡量都是真正的热潮。营收正在大幅上升，利润也在不断扩大。该公司今年余下时间的产能已被全部预订，而且看起来明年全年也会如此。
Broadcom experienced a sales boom, a real boom by all measures. Revenues are rising significantly, and profits are constantly expanding. The company remains fully booked for the rest of this year, and it looks like it will be for the rest of next year as well.
我计算出 Broadcom 股票的公允价值为 523 美元。
I calculated the fair value of Broadcom stock at $523.
我得出这一结果的方法，是估算我认为该公司从今天直到非常遥远的未来将产生的现金流。2026 年，我估计这家公司将产生 500 亿美元现金流，第二年增至 900 亿美元，再下一年增至 1230 亿美元。
从那时起，我预计将进入一段强劲的过渡性增长期，达到 1440 亿美元，然后达到 1680 亿美元，最终到 2031 年达到 1970 亿美元。
The method I arrived at this was by estimating the amount of cash flow I believe the company will generate from today until the very distant future. In 2026, I estimate that this company will generate $50 billion in cash flow, increasing to $90 billion the following year, and then to $123 billion the year after that.
From that point onward, I anticipate a strong period of transitional growth to $144 billion, then $168 billion, and finally $197 billion by 2031.
通过将所有这些现金流折现到当前价值，我计算出了该公司运营业务的总价值，然后除以流通股数量，得出 523 美元的公允价值估计。
By discounting all those cash flows to their current value, I calculated the total value of the company's operations, then divided it by the number of outstanding shares to arrive at a fair value estimate of $523.
如果你想知道我用了什么折现率，我采用的是加权平均资本成本方法，并结合了资本资产定价模型（CAPM），其中包括公司的贝塔系数、无风险利率，以及基于资本结构的加权平均资本成本，也就是公司债务与股权的比例。
If you are wondering what discount rate I used, I used a weighted average cost of capital methodology incorporating a capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which includes the company’s beta coefficient, risk-free rate, and weighted average cost of capital based on the capital structure, i.e., the amount of debt versus equity the company has.
Broadcom 的贝塔系数为 1.22。随着 10 年期国债收益率攀升，美国的无风险利率正在上升，这就是为什么我计算出 Broadcom 的加权平均资本成本为 11.6%。这就是我用来得出 523 美元公允价值估计的折现率。
Broadcom has a beta coefficient of 1.22. The risk-free rate is rising here in the United States as the 10-year bond yield climbs, and that's why I calculated Broadcom's weighted average cost of capital at 11.6%.
This is the discount rate I applied to arrive at the fair value estimate of $523.
而现在，其当前股价为每股 353 美元。因此，我计算出 Broadcom 股价将在未来 12 到 18 个月内上涨超过 48%。
And now, its current market price is $353 per share. Therefore, I am calculating a rise in the value of Broadcom shares of more than 48% over the next 12 to 18 months.
鉴于这些非常强劲的前景，我非常兴奋，并于今年早些时候为我的投资组合买入了博通股票，而且我有兴趣买入更多。如果你想到的是博通、Marvell、高通、Nvidia、AMD 和 Apple 这类公司，所有这些公司至少有一部分产品依赖台积电。
Given these very strong prospects, I was very excited and bought Broadcom shares for my investment portfolio earlier this year, and I am interested in buying more. If you are thinking of companies like Broadcom, Marvell, Qualcomm, Nvidia, AMD, and Apple, all of these companies rely on TSMC for at least some of their products.
这个频道对 $AVGO 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。