Broadcom 是我最强的长期 AI 押注之一，也是通过定制 AI 加速器、网络和软件直接布局 AI 基础设施的最有说服力的标的之一。股价约在 370 美元，而模型显示合理价值接近 470 美元；预计今年和明年利润增长 70%，对应远期市盈率 18.6，PEG 低于 1。
逐段跳播
这一趋势指向定制 AI 芯片，我们名单上的第二家公司是 Broadcom（AVGO），它是定制 AI 芯片领域的领先力量。如果我要构建一个为期 5 年的人工智能领域投资组合，很难把 Broadcom 排除在外。
因为 Broadcom 把自己定位在两大巨大机会的交汇点上：专用 AI 加速器和 AI 网络。我认为这两个领域在未来五年可能会变得更加重要。
This trend is towards custom AI chips, with the second company on our list being Broadcom (AVGO), a leading force in the field of custom AI chips. If I were to put an investment portfolio into the field of artificial intelligence for 5 years, it would be very difficult to exclude Broadcom from that list.
Because Broadcom has positioned itself at the intersection of two tremendous opportunities: dedicated AI accelerators and AI networks. These are two areas that I believe could become more important over the next five years.
大型云计算公司正在人工智能计算上投入数十亿美元。但当他们花这些钱时，他们更青睐能完全满足自己需求、服务于自身特定业务需求的芯片。这正是定制芯片和 Broadcom 发挥作用的地方。
你可以从 Nvidia 或 AMD 这样的公司购买通用图形处理器。但如果你要处理大量非常特定的工作负载呢？如果你能为自己的 AI 模型和基础设施开发一款改进的芯片呢？这很可能为某些应用带来更好的性价比或能效。
这就是专用 AI 加速器背后的机会，它们通常被称为 ASIC，或者我更愿意称之为专用集成电路。Broadcom 帮助大型科技公司设计和开发这些专用芯片。
Giant cloud computing companies are spending billions on artificial intelligence computing. But when they spend all that money, they prefer chips that do exactly what they want, and that serve their specific business needs.
This is where custom chips and Broadcom come into play. You can buy generic graphics processing units from companies such as Nvidia or AMD. But what if you're handling huge amounts of very specific workloads?
What if you could develop an improved chip for your AI models and infrastructure? This is likely to lead to improved performance-to-cost or energy efficiency for certain applications.
That is the opportunity behind dedicated AI accelerators, often called ASICs or, as I prefer to call them, application- specific integrated circuits . Broadcom helps major technology companies design and develop these specialized chips.
我想澄清一件非常重要的事。定制芯片并不一定会在所有工作负载中取代 Nvidia 或 AMD。不同的应用有不同的计算需求。但更广泛的人工智能市场无法支撑多种基础设施。这就是为什么 Broadcom 的网站如此有意思。
And I want to clarify something very important. Custom chips do not necessarily replace Nvidia or AMD in all workloads. Different applications have different computing requirements .
But the broader AI market cannot support multiple infrastructures. This is why Broadcom's website is so interesting.
回到 Investing Pro 平台，我们看到 Broadcom 股价去年大部分时间都持平，仅上涨 2%，目前市值为 1.7 万亿。
Returning to the Investing Pro platform, we see that Broadcom shares remained flat for most of last year, rising by only 2%, and its market value currently stands at 1.7 trillion.
关于 AMD，她表示我们可以更有耐心。但对于 Broadcom，估值似乎非常有说服力，因为我们有一个经典例子：正如你刚才看到的，股价没有上涨，但公司的财务数据却持续上升。营收在上升，现金流在上升，营业利润也在上升。
Regarding AMD, she stated that we can be more patient. But with Broadcom, the valuation seems very convincing because we have a classic example of a stock price that doesn't move as you just saw, yet the company's financials continue to rise.
Revenue is rising, cash flow is rising, and operating income is rising.
Broadcom 股价目前在每股 370 左右交易。但当你打开 Investing 模型时，你会看到所使用的全部十四个模型都显示该股目前的公允价值约为 470。这意味着它显示该股价值大约高出 30%。
此外，分析师预测该股的 12 个月目标价为 531。它有很大的机会涨到当前价格之上。
Broadcom stock is currently trading around 370 per share . But when you open the Investing models, you can see that all fourteen models used indicate a fair value of around 470 for the stock at the moment .
This means it indicates a stock value that is approximately 30% higher. Furthermore, analysts are forecasting a 12-month price target for the stock of 531. There is a significant opportunity for it to rise above the current price level.
预计今年利润将增长70%，明年再增长70%。假设2027财年的目标平均每股收益为19.39美元，那么Broadcom股价目前的预期市盈率为18.6倍。结合我们刚才提到的增长，市盈率相对盈利增长比率（PEG）远低于1。
Profits are expected to grow by 70% this year, and by another 70% next year. Assuming that the target average earnings per share for fiscal year 2027 is $19.39, Broadcom shares are currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 times.
With the growth we just mentioned, the price- to-earnings-growth (PEG) ratio is well below one.
其中一些公司实现的增长简直疯狂，股价最终会跟随这些利润的增长。与此同时，我喜欢把这段时期称为整合阶段。至于管理层，他们已经设定了非常乐观的收入目标，不仅是明年，还有后年，这显示出定制芯片领域所蕴含机会的规模。
The growth achieved by some of these companies is truly insane, and stock prices will eventually follow the growth of those profits. Meanwhile, I like to call this period the consolidation phase.
As for management, they have already set very optimistic revenue targets, not only for next year, but for the year after that as well, demonstrating the size of the opportunity available in the field of custom chips.
但我喜欢Broadcom还有另一个原因。该公司在基础设施软件领域也拥有庞大的业务。这为它提供了半导体业务之外的收入和现金流来源。这并不能消除公司的风险，但它打造了比一家单纯专注于人工智能芯片的公司更广泛的商业模式。
But there is another reason why I love Broadcom. The company also has a large business in the field of infrastructure software . This gives it a source of revenue and cash flow outside of semiconductor operations.
This does not eliminate the risks for the company, but it creates a broader business model than just a company specializing in artificial intelligence chips .
未来五年，我会关注三件事。第一是继续采用专用的人工智能加速器。第二，随着AI集群持续扩大，需要更快的网络。第三，Broadcom将其不断增长的收入转化为自由现金流的能力。因为归根结底，收入增长令人兴奋，但真正为股东创造持久价值的是现金流。
Over the next five years, I will be monitoring three things. The first is to continue adopting dedicated artificial intelligence accelerators. Secondly, there is a need for faster networks as AI clusters continue to grow .
Third, Broadcom's ability to convert its growing revenues into free cash flow. Because ultimately, revenue growth is exciting, but it's cash flow that creates lasting value for shareholders.
在这五家公司中，Broadcom是我最看好的长期押注之一，因为它结合了对专用AI计算、网络的投资，以及一项成熟的软件业务。
Of the five companies, Broadcom is one of my strongest long- term bets, as it combines investment in dedicated AI computing, networking, and a well-established software business.
Broadcom和Marvel在某些领域存在竞争。归根结底，这五家公司都在不同程度上依赖于对人工智能基础设施的持续需求。因此，同时持有这五只股票并不自动意味着你的投资已经分散。
但在我回答之前，是的，这五只股票我都持有。我期待在这五个标的上建立更大的仓位。
Broadcom and Marvel compete in certain areas. Ultimately, and to varying degrees, all five companies depend on the continued demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure .
Therefore, owning all five stocks does not automatically mean that you have diversified investments. But before I answer, yes , I own all five shares. I will look forward to building larger centers in these five names.
Broadcom将是我最信服的选择之一，用来直接布局AI基础设施。
Broadcom would be one of my most convincing choices for direct exposure to AI infrastructure.
这个频道对 $AVGO 的历次判断
Mark Roussin, CPA 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。