他增持的持仓 AVGO 在定制 AI 加速器和网络领域处于有利位置；营收增长 86%，其中 AI 半导体增长 220%，自由现金流创纪录。按 20 倍往绩市盈率计算，若估值倍数维持，股价明年可能上涨超过 60%，但高额债务和 AI 资本开支放缓是风险。
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但大型云服务提供商正在投资定制芯片，像Broadcom这样的公司也在从这一转变中受益。
But major cloud service providers are investing in custom chips, and companies like Broadcom are also benefiting from this shift.
现在，还有一家公司我想讨论。再说一次，它不是一家新公司，而是已经在我投资组合中的一家公司，而且我最近还加仓了它。
Now, there is another company I want to discuss. Again, it's not a new company, but a company that already exists in my portfolio, and one to which I've recently added more.
但下一家公司在某方面与Nvidia相似，不过它切入的是AI计算市场的另一个部分。随着大型科技公司开发自己的定制芯片，这个部分正变得越来越重要。第三只股票将是Broadcom，股票代码是AVGO。
这是我最喜欢的公司之一，它处于有利位置，能够从人工智能的下一阶段中受益。因为我相信AI计算市场会变得越来越专业化，一些全球最大的科技公司正大举投资于为其特定工作负载设计的定制芯片。
这有很充分的理由。当你在计算基础设施上花费数十亿美元时，即便效率只有相对较小的提升，也能转化为巨大的财务收益。Broadcom的机会就在这里。
But this next company is similar to Nvidia in one way or another, but it taps into a different part of the AI computing market. This is a part that is becoming increasingly important as major technology companies develop their own custom chips.
The third stock will be Broadcom, and the stock symbol is AVGO. This is one of my favorite companies that is well- positioned to benefit from the next phase of artificial intelligence.
Because I believe the AI computing market will become increasingly specialized , with some of the world’s largest technology companies investing heavily in custom chips designed for their specific workloads.
And there is a very good reason for that . When you spend billions of dollars on computing infrastructure, even relatively small improvements in efficiency can translate into huge financial benefits. This is where Broadcom comes in.
Broadcom在人工智能生态系统内确实有两个大机会。我们知道的第一个是人工智能加速器，第二个是高速网络。先从定制芯片说起。一些公司不再完全依赖通用处理器，而是为特定应用设计专用半导体。
Broadcom帮助大客户开发定制硅芯片。这并不一定意味着这些客户会停止从Nvidia购买图形处理器。我相信市场足够大，可以支撑多种计算架构。但定制芯片可能成为整个AI基础设施市场中越来越重要的一部分。Broadcom处于有利位置来利用这一点。
Broadcom really has two big opportunities within the artificial intelligence ecosystem. The first one we know of is artificial intelligence accelerators, and the second is high-speed networks.
Let's start with the custom chips. Instead of relying entirely on general-purpose processors, certain companies design specialized semiconductors for specific applications. Broadcom helps develop custom silicon chips for large clients.
Now, this does not necessarily mean that these customers will stop buying graphics processing units from Nvidia. I believe the market is large enough to support multiple computing architectures.
But custom chips could become an increasingly important part of the overall AI infrastructure market. Broadcom is well-positioned to take advantage of this.
第二个机会是网络。因为随着公司构建更大的AI计算集群，它们需要快速传输海量数据。这需要先进的网络技术。Broadcom提供的产品帮助连接这些系统。
The second opportunity is networks. Because as companies build larger AI computing clusters , they need to move huge amounts of data, and quickly. This requires advanced network technology.
Broadcom provides products that help connect these systems.
再说一次，这不是一家只谈未来可能实现的营收和利润的企业。它们今天就已经在赚取数十亿美元。它们有订单支持在未来几年以两倍的速度继续这样做。这种增长伴随着大量自由现金流的产生。
Again, this is not a business that talks about revenues and profits that may come in the future. They are already making billions today. They have requests to continue doing so at twice the pace over the next few years.
This growth was accompanied by the generation of large free cash flows.
Broadcom确实有大量债务，这是我们需要在未来关注的事情。但公司产生现金是我投资逻辑的重要组成部分。过去一年，Broadcom 的股价下跌了约5%。而公司刚刚公布去年营收增长86%，其中 AI 半导体业务收入增长220%，自由现金流创下纪录。
然而，你今天支付的估值比一年前更便宜。股价正朝着一个方向走，那就是稳定，而财务数据却在持续上升。有时候很难摆脱市场反应的束缚，但当你真正去分析公司本身时，就能在恐惧中找到很好的机会。
It is true that Broadcom has significant debt, and this is something we need to monitor in the future. But generating cash in the company is an important part of my investment thesis.
Over the past year, Broadcom shares have fallen by about 5%. While the company just announced revenue growth of 86% last year. With AI semiconductor revenues growing by 220% and record free cash flow .
However, the valuation you are paying today is cheaper than it was a year ago. The stock is moving in one direction, which is stability, while the financial data continues to rise.
Sometimes it's hard to break free from the market's reaction, but when you really analyze the company for what it is, you can find great opportunities amid the fear.
目前，Broadcom 的股价对应市盈率为20倍，这是基于过去十二个月的口径。如果公司维持这一估值倍数，股价明年将上涨超过60%。
Currently, Broadcom shares are trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20. This is from the perspective of the past twelve months. If the company stays at this multiple, the shares will rise by more than 60% next year.
事实上，我非常喜欢它，以至于加了仓，从我上周末发给社区的交易提醒里你就能看到。这是我长期看好的一只股票。当然，从股价角度看会有波动，但业务仍在持续增长。我经常对投资者或上我课程的学生说，尤其是在当下这个时点：我知道自己买入的是一家估值很划算的优质公司。
In fact, I liked it so much that I increased my position in it, as you can see from this trading alert that I sent to my community last weekend. This is a name I've loved for a long time.
Of course, there will be fluctuations from the stock's point of view. But the business continues to grow. But what I often say to investors or students taking my course, and at this particular time, is that I know I am buying a high- quality company with a great valuation.
而 Broadcom 则提供专用于人工智能和网络技术的芯片。同时持有这三家公司并不一定意味着你就分散了风险，因为这三家公司在 AI 基础设施的同一个基本投资周期上都有很大的敞口。
如果人工智能的资本支出继续增长，这些公司就会表现良好，它们都会受益。但如果支出明显放缓——这是关键词——这三家公司就可能面临一些压力。
while Broadcom provides chips dedicated to artificial intelligence and networking technologies. Owning all three does not necessarily mean you are diversified, because all three companies have significant exposure to the same basic investment cycle in AI infrastructure.
If capital expenditures for artificial intelligence continue to grow, these companies will perform well. They will all benefit. But if spending slows down significantly, and that is the key word, the three companies could face some pressure.
目前有三家公司特别吸引我：Vertiv、Nvidia 和 Broadcom。
Currently, there are three companies that are of particular interest to me: Vertiv, Nvidia , and Broadcom.
这个频道对 $AVGO 的历次判断
Mark Roussin, CPA 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。