AVGO 是看多仓位：9月财报强劲，随后出现下跌后拉升（drop-and-pop），说话者认为它目前被低估。他提到相对公允价值有37.7%的折价（461 对 335），以及 Seeking Alpha/Investing Pro 的强力买入和公允价值信号，且近期没有财报。
逐段跳播
Alexander 说 AVGO。David 说 yes。Alexander 说 yes。太好了。谢谢你们。谢谢。感谢。好。那么，我们先看 Meta，然后看 AVGO。
Alexander says AVGO. David says yes. Alexander says yes. Great. Thank you guys. Thank you. Appreciate that. Okay. So, we're going to look at Meta and then we're going to look at AVGO.
所以 Broadcom，嗯，我现在非常看好 Broadcom，让大家知道我的立场。我们在 9 月发布了财报。嗯，我们业绩很好。呃，股价先跌后涨，嗯，我认为我们现在被低估了。
So Broadcom um I'm super bullish on Broadcom right now just so everybody's aware of where my my stance is. We had earnings in September. Um we had great earnings. uh stock stock dropped and popped and um my belief is that we are undervalued right now.
461 目前是 335。这怎么样？呃，这上涨潜力怎么样？潜在上涨空间。我在这里算什么？37.7%。Broadcom 被低估了 37.7%。
461 currently 335. How's that for that? Uh, how's that for upside potential? Potential upside. What am I doing here? 37.7%. Broadcom is 37.7% undervalued.
我们看看 Seeking Alpha 对 Broadcom 怎么说。我们往下找这个估值。它会出现在这里。C。但再次，A+ 盈利能力，再次持平在 4%。看看这个强力买入评级。
Let's look at Seeking Alpha and see what it says about Broadcom. We're going to look for this valuation down here. That's going to appear right here. C. But again, A+ profitability and again flat on the air 4%. Look at this strong buy rating.
Investing Pro 也说公允价值比当前价格高 37.7%。请告诉我没有财报，因为财报刚在 9 月发布。所以，我们还有时间。
Investing Pro is also saying fair value is 37.7% above its current price. please tell me there's there's no earnings because the earnings were just in September. So, we we have some time with this.
股价在 335 交易。从现在到那时的预期波动是跨式期权基础乘以 80%。所以我们看了那个，对吧？所以我们心里有我们的 320。
Stocks trading at 335. Expected move between now and then is the base of the straddle times 80%. So we looked at that, right? So we got our three 320 in mind.
现在我们要把两个数字相加，8.90 和 975。把计算器拿出来，不管它在哪儿。……9.5 加 9，所以是 18.5 乘以 .88。我不想把这个算错。14.8。所以，从这个点位起，上下浮动 14.8。
股票现在在 335 交易。那么，335 下方 15 美元是多少？是 320。上方 15 美元是多少？是 3……呃，360，抱歉，是 350。
Right now we're just going to add two numbers together 8.90 and 975. So get our calculator wherever that is. ... 9.5 plus 9. So, 18.5 times.88. I don't want to mess this up. 14.8.
So, this is going to be plus or minus 14.8 from this point. Stocks trading at 335. So, what's $15 below 335? That's the 320. What's What's $15 above? That's going to be the three Uh 360, sorry, 3 350.
320 就是那个标记位。这恰好也是我们看到的跨式期权价格所在的位置。所以这是一个很好的起点，因为它可能跌到这个水平。
320 was the was the mark. That happens to be where we're looking at that straddle price too. So this is a good good starting point because it could come down to this level.
当我建立对角价差时，理想情况下，我希望只有单边风险。所以，在这个例子里，我为此收到 3.70 美元。我们可以看看如果我直接卖出会怎样。再说一次，这是，呃，如果我们看模拟器，我有 31,000 美元资金，试图赚 367 美元。77% 的盈利概率。
What I want to do when I am entering a diagonal, ideally I want to have only single-sided risk. So, in this case, I am collecting $3.70 for this. We can see if I just sold it directly.
And again, this is uh if we look at the simulator, I've got $31,000 in capital trying to make $367. 77% probability of profit.
很多人就是这样交易看跌期权和卖出看跌期权的，我也这样做过，而且，呃，这完全可以接受。但我们必须明白自己在交易什么。我们是想用一大笔被占用的资金去赚一点点钱。所以整体来看，这可能不是最好的方案。
This is how lots of people trade puts and short short puts and I have and and we can and uh that is totally acceptable. But we have to understand what we're trading. We are trying to make a little bit amount of money with a huge amount of money tied up. So it may not be the best plan overall.
我想看的是比那个小得多的策略。那么我们怎么定义这个风险？我们去看期权链，我们看了 10 天。现在我要把它翻倍。所以我们可以选 17 或 24。我喜欢选 17 左右。所以这是大约一周多一点之后，然后再往后一周。
I want to look at strategies that are much much smaller than that. So how do we define that risk? Well, we go to the chain and so we looked at 10 days. Now I'm going to double that.
So we can either go to the 17 or the 24. I like to do around the 17. So this is a this is a week and a bit out and then a one week after that.
我要做的是往下看，没有财报。我只是想看看能不能买到价格差不多相同的东西。370、390，那是 31250。那这个 320 到 340 呢？如果我买其中一个会怎样？这会让我一开始就收到权利金。
这会让我从 50 开始。50 不算多，但看看我承担了多少风险。这个的最大亏损是 985 美元。没有上行风险，79% 的盈利概率。
And what I'm going to do is I'm going to look down and no there's no earnings. I'm just going to look to see can I buy something that is around that same price. 370 390 that's the the 31250.
What about this 320 to 340? What if I was to buy one of those? This is going to start me with a credit. This is going to start me at 50. Now 50 is not very much but look at look at how much I'm risking.
The max loss on this is $985. No upside risk, 79% probability of profit.
股票可能大幅上涨，对吧？股票可能走成抛物线，然后就像，哦，呃，股票涨到随便多少，470 美元，高得离谱。我是以收取权利金的方式开这个仓的。所以到期时，如果 AVGO 涨得非常高非常高，唯一会发生的事就是我卖出的这个看跌期权在 10 月 30 日到期作废，而我仍然持有 11 月 6 日的 310 多头看跌期权，它将毫无价值。
就这样。它会毫无价值。因为股票涨得太多太多了，所以它失去了全部价值。但这笔 11 月 6 日的交易不会有任何风险。
Well, the stock could go way up, right? The stock could go parabolic and it would be like, oh, um, you know, the stock went to whatever 470 bucks, like just ridiculously high. I open this for credit.
So, at expiration, if AVGO has gone up way way way to the moon, all that happens is that this this short put that I've sold expires worthless on October 30th and I still own the November 6 long put, the 310, which will have no value.
That's it. It'll have no value. So, because the stock has gone up way too way too much, so it's just lost all everything. But, this won't have any risk on this November 6 trade.
所以在接下来的 10 天里，如果 AVGO 大幅上涨，我会赚 45 美元。如果我能以 45 美元开这个仓，那就是看涨的……
So over the course of the next 10 days, if AVGO was to go way way up, I would make 45 bucks. If I could get 45 bucks to open this, that would be that's the bullish
所以，如果 AVGO 全年一直涨、涨、涨、涨、涨，我赚 2,900 美元。这个策略之所以能有 400 的最大利润，是因为如果 AVGO 下跌并在 320 附近到期，就会发生这种情况。
So, if the if AVGO just continued to go up and up and up and up and up all year, I make 2,900 bucks. The reason that this could have a max profit of 400 is what happens if AVGO comes down and it expires right near this 320.
如果我们把视野拉远，AVGO 涨到 400 美元，我实际上会亏钱，因为我花了 170 美元才进场。
if we were to zoom out and AVGO went to 400 bucks I would actually lose money because I paid 170 bucks to get into it.