AVGO 当前市盈率 18.96 倍，低于其五年均值，估值偏低；若到 2028 财年 EPS 达 30 美元、按 20 倍市盈率计算，含股息约有 82.5% 的上行空间。最大风险是客户集中度——向 Anthropic 提供高达 420 亿美元贷款。他仍持乐观态度，并加仓了股票。

If you've been following the channel for a while, you know that the biggest winner in my investment portfolio over the past four or five years has been none other than Broadcom.

If you look at the average cost of my holdings, you can see that I have made a profit of approximately 173.5%, but when calculated from my original starting point , I am up by more than 600%, and it wasn't just the rise in the share price that was amazing.

Dividend payout growth has been substantial throughout this period. Now, it is clear if we look at the gains that Broadcom has made in almost every year since 2020, with minor exceptions, that it has been astronomical growth.

In 2021, it increased by 52%. In 2023, almost 100% . In 2024, by 107%. In 2025, by 50%.

But as of 2026, Broadcom is in the red zone ( losing). If we look at the company's stock over the past year, it has fallen by about 3.5%, and since the beginning of the year until now, it has fallen by 2.61%.

What's interesting is that Broadcom trading at these prices means it's trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of only 18.96. This is lower than its five- year average. Now, if we take a closer look, we can see that at one point, it was trading at approximately 50 times earnings .

Consequently, the valuation multiple has fallen significantly over the past few months in particular, especially since the summer when it was trading at around 30 times earnings.

Yes, part of this is simply due to selling, but this is a stock that is growing its earnings rapidly, and not only is the earnings growth rapid, but the outlook for future revenue, earnings, and free cash flow growth continues to rise.

Take a look at this. What we are looking at is the trend in analysts' revenue estimates for Broadcom since November 2025 . So, it actually covers mostly last year. They are forecasting revenues for 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030.

What you will notice is that analyst forecasts have continued to rise. They continued to revise their guidance upwards.

Broadcom continues to exceed expectations. The investment thesis in general is relatively simple. In the latest earnings report, CEO Hock Tan stated: "We are on track to surpass $30 in earnings per share in fiscal year 2028."

So, here's the simple calculation behind it . If in 2028 they achieve earnings of $30 per share , and trade at a price-to- earnings ratio of only 20, i.e., a 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 20, that would mean $600 per share, indicating an upside of approximately 82.5% including dividends.

So, this is a very simple investment thesis. How realistic is that? What does the assessment actually look like, and what are the main risks involved in this work? I will also explain what I intend to do regarding my shares in Broadcom.

A few moments ago, we talked about how analysts' revenue revisions continue to rise. And by that I mean , take a look. In March 2026, they were projecting revenues for 2030 to be around $257 billion.

We are now facing projections of slightly less than $400 billion . We are talking about reviews that have increased dramatically in a short period of time.

But what's really interesting is looking at the average target price set by analysts. They have set a target price of $519 per share, which implies a potential upside of 54%. Okay, let's first make sure we understand the business model at a very basic level .

Broadcom has two business sectors. We have infrastructure software , and then we have semiconductor solutions.

Infrastructure software is a more repetitive business sector in nature, at least with regard to its revenues. Much of the growth in infrastructure software over the years has come through acquisitions.

This is a smaller business sector compared to semiconductors, but it is also growing at a rapid rate, which we will refer to shortly.

As of the third quarter of 2026, this sector accounted for approximately 30% of revenues. Then we have the semiconductor solutions sector. This sector represents about 70% of third-quarter revenues , and it is growing at a significant rate.

This includes artificial intelligence accelerators, network chips, wireless communications , broadband, and storage components.

As you can see in their latest earnings report , yes, infrastructure software has seen strong growth. It has increased by 29% year-on-year, which is undoubtedly very strong growth.

But semiconductor solutions rose by 127% year-on-year . This is the main source of growth.

So, the opportunity is simple. Broadcom helps design computing engines for artificial intelligence and provides the network that allows these engines to work together. Revenues in 2015 amounted to approximately $6.8 billion.

As of 2025, it reached $63.8 billion . So, we're talking about a 10-fold increase in revenue in just 10 years. It's truly amazing.

But what is truly surprising is that this is not the source of all growth. It is clear that revenue is the primary driver of growth more than anything else, but look at the expansion in the gross profit margin.

It has risen from 52 % to 67.7%, and based on the estimates we see, this percentage may hover around the 70% level over the next few years .

As for the true sentiment towards this stock, we can see that Broadcom is one of the least short-selling stocks on Wall Street, at a rate of no more than 1.09%. There is very little institutional capital that is actually betting against this stock.

So, you might be wondering: "Okay, why has the stock fallen by 2.6% since the beginning of the year, especially considering that it is trading at a price-to- earnings ratio of only 18.96?"

Well, if we look at their most recent quarterly earnings released on September 2, and if we scroll down, we can see that the stock fell by about 4% in after-hours trading , and has fallen further since then.

So, what happened in this latest earnings report? Well, despite what were considered strong overall results, they stated that we will likely see lower revenue guidance for the fourth quarter than previously expected.

And now, therein lies the paradox . This is classic Wall Street thinking in terms of quarterly quarters versus thinking in years or even decades.

At the time the earnings report was released , the stock was trading at around $370 per share. We are now at the $336 level . Therefore, while revenue growth was slightly lower in the fourth quarter, the most important part of the guidance they provided that we should take into account is the fact that the CEO stated that we are on track to exceed $30 in earnings per share in fiscal year 2028.

2028 is not too far away , and he seems very comfortable with their ability to achieve that. Not only achieving it, but also surpassing it. This is the number we should focus on.

However, these are not the only risks. If I had to point to the biggest source of concern, it would be this. The CEO of Broadcom says that capital will be the biggest obstacle to the development of artificial intelligence.

At first glance, this seems like positive news for Broadcom, and to some extent it is. There is a high demand for their products. But look at what they are actually doing to meet this demand.

If we scroll down, we can see that the company is lending Anthropic up to $42 billion to help fund infrastructure spending. This financing is part of a broader relationship that includes the supply and leasing of computing equipment.

Reuters reported that Anthropic is expected to become Broadcom's largest chip design customer by 2027. Suddenly, Broadcom's growth story has become somewhat dependent on the creditworthiness of the customer.

This could obviously accelerate lucrative sales significantly if Anthropic succeeds, but if things go wrong, Broadcom could face not only weaker orders, but also financial losses and a decrease in equipment repayments.

So, obviously, any time you lend money , yes, there is a risk of repayment, but now there is also a risk of customer concentration. But here's something else you can't ignore. Under the financing agreement, Broadcom can appoint a financing partner, and the debt can be converted into shares in Anthropic.

I don't see those who adopt a negative view of Broadcom referring to this point much.

Now, what is the true value of Anthropic shares? Your guess is as good as mine . However, this serves as a safety cushion that must be taken into account.

In general, this is undoubtedly the biggest risk and the different concern that people have. What I really hope is that Broadcom will disclose accurately the percentage of total current revenue coming from Anthropic and what is expected over the next few years. But we don't have that information.

However, let's go ahead and do the math to see what the potential returns might look like in the future. If we move on to our sensitivity analysis and look at Broadcom, the data will be loaded thanks to "TIKR Data".

We usually look at what analysts predict for earnings growth over the next few years and apply an estimate of earnings per share growth and a future price-to-earnings ratio, but the CEO literally stated that he expects earnings per share to exceed $30 by 2028. So, let's take that number into consideration.

Let's start by looking at 2028 and we will simply set a figure of $30 as earnings per share. So, this is what they expect by 2028. Now, let's assume, though, that the multiplier for the past twelve months is around 40 to 41 times earnings.

This is extremely high, at least compared to the market. Let's expect a significant decline in the multiplier over the past twelve months. The price may fall back completely to around 20.

Suddenly , you can still see that future returns are around 80%, and that doesn't include dividends which currently yield around 0.8%, but again, you will see significant dividend growth along the way.

Therefore, there is a great deal of potential gain only up to 2028. That would be a compound return close to 21-22%. If the stocks rise well beyond that, perhaps to around 33 , suddenly the compound returns will reach 25% and the total return will reach 96%.

So, here's the basic premise we need to understand about this stock. From a purely numerical point of view, and from a valuation perspective, this stock is undoubtedly undervalued.

But here's the counter-argument. Whether we are in a circular AI funding bubble or not. People often like to compare today's market to the market of 2000 when we witnessed the dot-com bubble.

Now, what we are looking at here is the forward earnings multiple for the technology sector. Therefore, we can see that the price-to-earnings ratio increased by 250% within two to three years during the dot-com bubble.

Therefore, it was very easy to point out that there was a bubble here. There were stocks trading at very high valuation levels. However, there has been very little expansion in the forward price-to-earnings ratio over the past few years, even in the technology market.

As we saw at Broadcom, their valuation multiple has declined significantly over the past few years, and is now well below the average of the past three years, and even lower than it was three years ago up to this point.

So, the question is not whether we are in a valuation bubble or not, but whether we are in an earnings bubble or not. If we are in a bubble, it is not in the price-to-earnings ratio , that is, it is not in the price, but it will be in the profits.

So, yes, there is great demand for Broadcom, and it's great to see that they can acquire stakes in Anthropic if things go wrong. It's also great to have such strong demand, with the CEO stating that they are on track to exceed $30 in earnings per share by fiscal year 2028.

However, there is undoubtedly a certain level of customer concentration risk.

As for me, I remain optimistic about Broadcom. So, to be perfectly honest, I've added a few more stocks to my portfolio.