$AVGO · Schwab Network · 2026-10-27
博通只是短期利好,而非长期利好:股价自6月高点下跌逾30%后,630亿美元的Anthropic交易带来买入评级上调与400美元目标价(对应2027年盈利的21倍),至少应能为股价托底。说话者在今日大涨后并非激进买入者,但视300为支撑位,预计在12月初财报前横盘至小幅上涨,而非AI第一波那样的凌厉涨势。长期走势未知;博通必须证明营收,否则贷款方可能撤退。
逐段跳播
我们来看一下博通股票的走势图,该股自6月初创下历史新高以来已下跌超过30%。和许多其他科技股一样,博通的股票处于一笔巨额AI债务交易的中心,该交易于昨天晚间宣布,涉及Anthropic。
Let's focus on the chart for Broadcom stock, which has fallen by more than 30% since hitting an all-time high in early June. Like many other technology stocks, Broadcom's stock was at the center of a huge AI debt deal, announced late yesterday, which involved Anthropic.
因此,我们今天看到博通的股票出现了显著反弹。正如我们提到的,自夏天以来该股一路下跌,它迫切需要这次反弹。正如我提到的,博通股票今天再次上涨。该股上涨了约3%。这是在昨天Anthropic宣布首次公开募股后该股上涨2.3%的基础上进一步走高。
Therefore, we are witnessing a remarkable recovery in Broadcom's stock today. The stock desperately needed this recovery after the decline, as we mentioned, since the summer. As I mentioned, Broadcom stock made gains again today.
The stock rose by about 3%. This adds to its 2.3% gains made yesterday after Anthropic announced its initial public offering.
正如你指出的,过去两个月对这只股票来说很艰难。其价格已较6月的最高水平下跌超过30%。
As you pointed out, the past two months have been difficult for this stock. Its price has fallen by more than 30% from its highest levels in June.
但这笔巨额交易以及Anthropic的首次公开募股可能会给博通带来重大提振。仅这一个数字就足以让DA Davidson将其对博通的评级从中性上调至买入。
But this huge deal and Anthropic's initial public offering could give Broadcom a major boost. This figure alone was enough for DA Davidson to upgrade its rating for Broadcom from neutral to buy.
他补充说,这两项发行将使博通能够达到其未来两年的预期。该分析师还将该股的目标价从350美元上调至400美元,相当于他对博通2027年盈利预测的21倍。
He adds that these two offerings will enable Broadcom to meet its expectations for the next two years. The analyst also raised the target price for the stock from $350 to $400, which is 21 times his 2027 earnings forecast for Broadcom.
Davidson断言,Anthropic将在博通未来几年的发展轨迹中发挥关键作用。
Davidson asserts that Anthropic will play a pivotal role in Broadcom's trajectory over the next few years.
从现在到2028年,Anthropic将从博通采购16吉瓦。在博通确定的32.3吉瓦总量中,Anthropic将获得约50%,这让人得以了解这笔交易将对博通产生的影响。
Anthropic is set to purchase 16 gigawatts from Broadcom between now and 2028. Of the total 32.3 gigawatts identified by Broadcom, Anthropic will acquire approximately 50%, giving an idea of the impact this deal will have on Broadcom.
不过,需要注意的是,Anthropic收购博通芯片并非简单之事,而是一笔相当复杂的交易。该公司宣布了一笔630亿美元的交易,由华尔街机构为从博通购买设备提供融资,这些设备随后将租赁给Anthropic。
However, it should be noted that Anthropic's acquisition of Broadcom chips is not a simple matter; it is a rather complex deal. The company announced a $63 billion deal, in which Wall Street firms finance the purchase of equipment from Broadcom, which will later be leased to Anthropic.
但《华尔街日报》报道称,CEO陈福阳花了两个月时间与包括美国银行、花旗、摩根士丹利和黑石在内的贷款方合作,试图说服它们提供超过400亿美元的债务,让Anthropic能够从博通租赁这些专用芯片,然后与谷歌合作进行开发。
But the Wall Street Journal reported that CEO Hock Tan spent two months working with lenders, including Bank of America, Citi, Morgan Stanley, and Blackstone, trying to persuade them to provide more than $40 billion in debt, allowing Anthropic to lease those specialized chips from Broadcom and then develop them in collaboration with Google.
博通在提交首次公开募股申请之前一直在努力敲定与Anthropic的交易,但随着交易临近,据《华尔街日报》报道,一些银行对参与其中越来越担忧,博通CEO最终在周末与高管们进行了最后一刻的讨论,以敲定它们的承诺并同意更高的利率。
Broadcom was working to finalize the deal with Anthropic before filing its initial public offering application, but as the deal approached, according to a Wall Street Journal report, some banks became increasingly concerned about participating, and Broadcom's CEO ended up holding last-minute discussions with executives over the weekend to finalize their commitments and agree to higher interest rates.
作为这笔交易的一部分——这里的情况有点复杂——博通向贷款方提供财务担保,确保设备保持一定的最低价值。因此,如果设备贬值速度快于预期或租赁失败,博通将不得不承担损失。
As part of this deal, and this is where things get a bit complicated, Broadcom provides a financial guarantee to the lenders that ensures the equipment retains a certain minimum value.
Therefore, if the devices lose value faster than expected or the lease fails, Broadcom will have to bear the loss.
该公司在第一年承担高达430亿美元的财务风险,不过在5年租赁期内,其对这些风险的风险敞口将降至零。Truist将这笔交易描述为“对博通而言存在一些风险,但风险很小”。她表示,430亿美元的峰值负债数字只在我们看来极为悲观的情形下才有意义。
The company is taking on financial risks of up to $43 billion during the first year, although its exposure to these risks will decrease to zero during the 5-year lease term. Truist described the deal as involving "some, but minimal, risk for Broadcom".
She says that the $43 billion peak liability figure is only relevant under conditions that appear to us to be extremely pessimistic.
所以,总体来看,我们看到了非常积极的反应。Davidson补充说,人工智能周期尚未结束,他们认为这种情况发生的可能性几乎为零。
So, overall, we are seeing a very positive reaction. Davidson adds that the artificial intelligence cycle is not over yet, and that they believe the likelihood of that happening is almost zero.
一旦出现任何问题,Broadcom 必须履行这项财务义务,这一点清楚地反映在股价表现上——过去48小时里股价上涨了超过5%,Sam。
Broadcom has to meet this financial obligation in case of any problem, which is clearly reflected in the stock's performance, which has risen by more than 5% in the last 48 hours, Sam.
有意思的是,Hock Tan 是最近几周谈到资本约束可能成为下一个障碍的CEO之一,而他现在却在幕后做了这一切,显然他完成这笔交易毫无问题。这一点似乎很明显。我认为这就是Hock Tan的实力。
Interestingly, Hock Tan was one of the CEOs who spoke in recent weeks about the possibility that capital constraints would be the next obstacle, and here he is doing all this behind the scenes, and it seems clear that he has no problem completing the deal.
That seems obvious. I think this is the power of Hawk Tan.
现在我们转到与期权策略专家Tim Bigham的交易讨论。早上好,Tim。Broadcom需要这个,因为正如我们提到并在图表中看到的,它的股价已从夏季高点大幅下跌。
Now let's move on to trading with options strategy expert Tim Bigham. Good morning, Tim. So, Broadcom needed this, because its stock price had fallen significantly from its summer highs, as we mentioned and saw in the chart.
是的,我肯定会把这视为一笔短期投资,目标至少是为Broadcom的股价在未来建立一个底部。财报确实会在12月初发布,但我们看到的不只是Broadcom和Anthropic,还有其他公司,也都回到了类似的水平。
Yes, I would certainly view this as a short-term investment, aimed at at least to establish a floor for Broadcom's stock price in the future. It is true that earnings will be released in early December, but we are seeing not only Broadcom and Anthropic, but other companies as well, returning to similar levels.
几天前我们在Nvidia和Meta身上就看到了这一点。所以,我们正看到市场重新活跃起来,而此前这种活跃似乎正在降温,或者说是一种复苏。这种我投资你、你投资我的循环局面,在我看来,将继续支撑AI股票,尤其是Broadcom的股票。
We saw that with Nvidia and Meta, you know, a couple of days ago. So, we are witnessing a return to activity that seemed to be calming down, or rather, a revival. This winding scenario, where I invest in you and you invest in me, will, in my opinion, continue to support AI stocks, especially Broadcom stocks.
因此,我会卖出传统的11月看跌期权,即300对295的看跌期权,价格约为50美分。我不会在这里大胆买入,尤其是考虑到Broadcom今天刚刚大涨,但300看起来是一个不错的支撑位。
股价从该位置反弹得很好,我认为从现在到财报公布之间,股价将横盘震荡,略微偏向上行。
Therefore, I will sell the traditional November put option, the 300 for 295 put option, at a price of about 50 cents. I wouldn't be a bold buyer here, especially with Broadcom's recent surge today, but 300 looks like a good support level.
The stock rebounded well from it, and I think that between now and the earnings announcement, the stock will fluctuate sideways with a slight upward bias.
我不认为我们会看到第一波AI股票那样的急剧上涨,但我确实认为抛售会放缓,即便不会完全消失。
I don't think we'll see the sharp rises we saw in the first wave of AI stocks, so to speak, but I do think we'll see a slowdown in selling, if not its complete disappearance.
所以,短期内我算是Broadcom的粉丝。至于长期,没人知道,这是我真正的答案。最重要的问题是这笔融资需要多长时间、成本多少、能持续多久。我认为他们迟早得通过创造良好营收来证明这一点。
否则,在我看来,你就会看到银行和贷款机构退缩,不再提供贷款。
So, I'm a bit of a fan of Broadcom in the short term. As for the long term, nobody knows, that's my real answer. The most important question is how long this funding will take, how much it will cost, and how long it will last.
I think at some point they will have to prove it by generating good revenue. Otherwise, you will see banks and lenders backing away from providing loans, in my opinion.
好。是的,这值得关注,尤其是当前市场对融资的担忧日益加剧,但这似乎并未对今天的表现产生负面影响。我们看到股价在窄幅区间内交易,但股价仍然很高,而且看起来科技板块在未来48小时会有不错的表现,Tim。
Good. Yes, this is something worth watching, especially with the growing concerns about financing in the market right now, but it doesn't seem to be negatively impacting performance today.
We are seeing trading within a narrow range, but the stock is still high, and it looks like the technology sector will perform well over the next 48 hours, Tim.
观察点
这个频道对 $AVGO 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 13 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。