$AXON · The Motley Fool · 2026-11-10
AXON 是买入机会：其捆绑的 Taser、随身摄像头、无人机与云服务构成持久的执法操作系统，增长已连续四年达 30% 以上，2026 年预计迎来第五年，ARR 增长 40% 至 18 亿美元，留存率为 126%，订单增长 39%。尽管第三季度存在对延迟（很可能是联邦）交易可能持续到 2027 年的担忧，且自由现金流倍数仍高达约 44 倍，但股价下跌 64% 至 2022 年下跌以来最低位，加上持续的 30% 增长，可能使其成为价值股。
逐段跳播
Axon。你现在喜欢 Axon 的哪些方面？哦！这是一家规模很大、正在成长的公司。这家公司向执法机构销售硬件，比如泰瑟枪和 Axon 随身摄像头。它还越来越多地进入无人机市场。
除此之外，它还有自己的云平台、软件服务，说实话，它非常高效地把这一切整合在一起。
Axon. What do you like about Axon right now? Oh! So, this is a very large growing company. This company sells hardware to law enforcement agencies, such as Tasers and Axon body cameras.
It is also increasingly entering the drone market. In addition to this, it also has its own cloud platform, software services, and frankly, it is very efficient at putting all of this together.
你看，它已经连续四年实现30%或以上的增长，并且有望在2026年达到第五年。对任何公司来说，能保持这样的成绩都是了不起的成就。Axon 做得非常好。
If you look, it has achieved growth of 30% or more for four consecutive years and is on track to reach its fifth year in 2026. This is an incredible feat for any company to maintain. Axon is doing very well.
如果你看一些能反映这家公司当前状况的最佳指标，你会看到年度经常性收入，因为其中很大一部分与合同挂钩。它有云平台。最近一个季度年度经常性收入增长了40%，达到18亿美元。净收入留存率依然强劲，为126%。
几个季度前还是125%，现在已经提高了。未来合同预订额同比增长39%。所以，它的增长快于收入，这是一个很好的领先指标。这里有很多有利条件，这家公司有很多值得看好的地方。
And if you look at some of the best indicators of the current state of this business, you'll see annual recurring revenue, because a large portion of that is tied to contracts.
It has a cloud platform. Annual recurring revenue grew 40% in the most recent quarter to $1.8 billion. The net revenue retention rate remains strong at 126%. What was 125% just a few quarters ago has now increased.
And future contracted bookings are up 39% year-over-year. So, it's growing faster than revenue, which is a great leading indicator. There are many favorable conditions here and there is a lot to love about this company.
是的，最近我们拿到了他们的第三季度业绩，有人担心一些交易被推迟。我认为这会持续到2027年。我认为这些是联邦合同。所以数字相当大。但在我看来，对于这样一家公司，你得退后一步想一想。而且，我持有 Axon 的股票已经大约十年了。
Yes, and recently we got their third quarter results and there was some concern about some of the deals being delayed. I think it will last until 2027. I think these are federal contracts.
So, the numbers are quite big. But in my opinion, in the case of a company like this, you have to step back and think a little. And, you know, I've owned shares of Axon for about a decade.
你可以从这张图看到，自2015年以来年复合增长率为30%。我的意思是，没有多少公司能连续十年或更长时间保持30%的年复合增长率。Axon 就是其中之一。
And you can see from this chart here, a 30% compound annual growth rate since 2015. I mean, there aren't many companies that have managed to grow at a 30% compound annual growth rate for a decade or more. Axon is one of those companies.
它仍然由创始人经营。这位创始人与公司的历史有点意思。他不就是我们通常以为的那种大股东吗？因为实际上，在随身摄像头之类的东西出现之前，也就是它还叫 Taser International 的时候，他卖掉了大部分股份。但我认为他们有很多优势。
It is still run by the founder. The founder has a kind of interesting history with the company. Isn't he the huge shareholder we usually think of? Because he actually sold most of his shares before body cameras and things like that came along, when it was Taser International.
But I think they have a lot of strength in their favor.
你提到了捆绑销售。你知道，甚至不像10年前那样，他们只是试图向美国和世界各地的执法机构销售泰瑟枪。然后他们进入了随身摄像头业务。现在他们不仅开始把泰瑟枪和随身摄像头捆绑在一起，还把软件服务也捆绑进来。
现在它就像是执法部门的一种操作系统。我认为这种业务不仅有价值，而且非常可持续，因为他们有长期合同，而且工作人员、执法人员、检察官，甚至接听911电话的人，都开始了解这个操作系统是怎么运作的。
它开始变成会写进你简历的东西。你知道，我会用 Axon 操作系统。这就会成为一种全国性或国际性的标准。所以我真的很喜欢他们前进的方向。
You mentioned bundling. You know, it's not like even 10 years ago they were just trying to sell Tasers to law enforcement agencies in the United States and around the world. Then they got into the body camera business.
Now they have started bundling not only Tasers with body cameras, but also software services. Now it's like a kind of operating system for law enforcement. And I think that's the kind of business that's not only valuable, but it's also very sustainable, because they have long-term contracts and the workers, the law enforcement, the prosecutors, even the people who respond to 911 calls, they're starting to understand how that operating system works.
It starts to become something that gets added to your resume. You know, I know how to use the Axon operating system. And that becomes a kind of national or international standard.
So I really like the direction they are heading.
这只股票已经下跌了64%。在我们开始录制之前看到这个时，我很震惊。所以我认为这可能是一个相当好的买入机会。有意思的是，这只股票从来都不便宜。它目前的交易价格仍约为此前售价的八倍。
市自由现金流比按未来计算仍在44左右。但是，你知道，这类公司，如果你能让收入再保持几年30%的年复合增长率，突然之间它就变成一只价值股了。
The stock has fallen 64%. When I saw this before we started recording, I was shocked. So I think this could be a pretty good opportunity to buy. Interestingly, the stock was never cheap.
It is still being traded at about eight times the previous selling price. The price to free cash flow ratio is still around 44 as of the future. But, you know, this is the kind of company where if you keep growing revenue at a 30% compound annual growth rate for a few more years, suddenly it becomes a value stock.
是的。而且按你的说法，这已经是它自2022年那次下跌以来的最低价了。所以我觉得这一点值得提一下。你一直在等Axon，现在它是多年来最便宜的时候。
Yes. And based on your words, this is its lowest price since the 2022 price drop. So I think it's worth mentioning. You've been waiting for the Axon, and now it's the cheapest it's been in years.
而且，当你考虑一家企业有哪些替代增长途径时，Axon 同时具备你想要的两样东西。他们既有可以卖给现有客户的新产品，也有可以销售的新客户。比如你提到的 911，这算是一种新产品，他们可以把它加入现有客户的套餐里。
这有帮助，但他们也越来越倾向于联邦惩教领域。这是一个不同的客户群体，是他们以前没有服务过的。所以你的选择是双倍的。
And you know, when you think about alternatives in a business, Axon has both of the things you want. They have new things they can sell to existing customers and they also have new customers to sell to.
So there are things like 911 that you mentioned, which is kind of a new thing and they can add it to the bundle for existing customers. That helps, but they are also leaning more and more towards federal corrections.
And this is a different customer group, one they didn't serve before. So you have double the options.
是的，无人机，这笔交易在过去几个季度影响了他们的收入。但无人机，我的意思是，这将会是另一项大业务；因为要把无人机卖给执法部门，还有哪家公司比那个你已经在佩戴其随身摄像头、并使用其系统记录各种信息的公司更合适呢？
Yes, drones, this was a deal that has impacted their revenue over the last few quarters. But drones, I mean, this is going to be another big business; Because what better company to sell drones to law enforcement than the one whose body cameras you already wear and use their systems to record various information?
这个频道对 $AXON 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。