BAM 被低估；低廉的估值倍数、高股息率/股息增长以及稳健的募资能力支撑看多逻辑。
逐段跳播
现在，让我们来看我在市场上大量买入的第二只股票，也就是 BAM，即 Brookfield Asset Management，你们很可能已经熟悉它了。
Now, let's move on to the second stock I've bought a lot of in the market, which is BAM, or Brookfield Asset Management, which you're probably already familiar with.
我仍然认为 Brookfield Asset Management 这只股票看起来非常便宜，如果你了解我，就知道我不是那种看重技术分析的人。那不是我的重点。我首先关注基本面，但当我看到 Brookfield Asset Management 的股价及其历史走势图时，这只股票似乎也开始见底了。
I still think the stock Brookfield Asset Management looks very cheap, and if you know me, you know I'm not one for a lot of technical analysis. It's not my focus. I focus on the fundamentals first, but when I look at Brookfield Asset Management's stock price and its historical chart, it looks like the stock is starting to bottom out as well.
至少在我看来，这一点也得到了印证：这家公司的估值倍数非常低，而且其股价和基本面都在持续良好增长。所以，我认为这只股票在某个时点会见底，而且很明显，我预计底部已经非常接近，甚至可能已经出现了。
This is also supported, at least in my opinion, by the fact that the price multiples for this business are very cheap, and that the stock and its fundamentals continue to grow very well.
So, I think at some point this stock will bottom out, and obviously, I expect the bottom to be very close, if it hasn't already been reached .
就在这里，我们可以看到 Brookfield Asset Management 目前的股息率大约为4.4%。所以，这只股票今天的当前收益率是4.4%。在目前的市场中，这是非常高的股息率。
Right here, we can see that Brookfield Asset Management's dividend is currently around 4.4%. So, the current yield on this stock today is 4.4%. That's a very high dividend yield in the market right now.
此外，Brookfield Asset Management 的关键目标之一，是继续每年将股息提高15%，这意味着股息大约每5年就会翻一番。
Furthermore, one of Brookfield Asset Management's key objectives is to continue increasing its dividend by 15% annually, which means the dividend should double every 5 Approximately five years.
每年提高15%，这意味着股息大约每5年就会翻一番。所以，五年后，按今天的持股成本计算，这一股息率应接近9%。再过五年，应达到18%，然后再过五年，可能达到36%。
by 15% annually, which means the dividend should double every 5 Approximately five years. So, in five years, this dividend yield based on today's cost of the stock should approach 9%.
After another five years, it should reach 18%, and then in another five years, it could reach 36%.
这是我认为 Brookfield Asset Management 是当前市场上最具吸引力的股息增长股的主要原因之一。
This is one of the main reasons why I believe Brookfield Asset Management is the most attractive dividend growth stock in the market right now.
如此高的股息率，同时又有同样快速的增长前景，是非常罕见的。长期来看，如果他们真的能实现这一增长，按今天的持股成本计算的股息率可能会非常惊人。
It's very rare to see such a high dividend yield with similarly rapid growth prospects. In the long run, if they actually manage to achieve this growth, the dividend yield on today's cost of the stock could be enormous.
正因如此，我用 Brookfield 的股票填满了我的递延纳税账户，因为我不用为这些股息缴税。我可以充分利用这一点，然后把股息再投资买入更多股票，这将提高这只股票的复合年增长率。
That's why I've filled my tax-deferred accounts with Brookfield shares, because I won't pay any taxes on those dividends. I can take full advantage of that and then reinvest those dividends to buy more shares, which will increase the stock's compound annual growth rate.
所以，仅从股息率和增长前景来看，我认为 Brookfield Asset Management 在当前市场中被低估了。
So, I believe Brookfield Asset Management is undervalued in today's market just by looking at its dividend yield and growth prospects.
此外，公司的远期市盈率……Brookfield Asset Management 目前为21.7。自公司IPO以来的长期历史平均值约为26.9。所以，它目前的交易价格远低于其历史远期平均市盈率。
Furthermore, the company's forward price-to-earnings ratio is... Brookfield Asset Management is currently at 21.7. Its long-term historical average since the company's IPO has been around 26.9.
So, it's currently trading well below its historical forward average price-to- earnings ratio .
再说一次，这是远期市盈率；按12个月计算，这只股票历史上曾以超过30倍的市盈率交易，因为它是一家高质量的公司，将大部分利润以股息形式分配。
Again, that's forward price-to-earnings; on a 12-month basis , the stock has historically traded at more than 30 times earnings because it's a high-quality company that distributes most of its profits as dividends.
我知道今年围绕私募股权行业有很多担忧，涉及赎回以及投资者试图撤出资金，但这似乎并不适用于 Brookfield，因为屏幕显示该公司的总募资增长仍在朝着正确的方向持续。
I know there are a lot of concerns surrounding the private equity sector this year with redemptions and investors trying to withdraw their funds, but this doesn't seem to apply to Brookfield, as the screen shows the company's total fundraising growth continuing in the right direction.
对于2026年，他们预计募资将创下纪录，且幅度显著。所以，尽管私募股权行业充斥着负面头条、新闻和投资者的担忧，Brookfield Asset Management 仍在继续吸引更多资金。
For 2026, they expect to have a record-breaking year for fundraising by a significant margin. So, Brookfield Asset Management continues to attract more capital despite all the negative headlines, news, and investor concerns in the private equity sector.
Brookfield 持续吸引更多资金的能力，使其费用相关收益自2020年以来以16%的复合年增长率增长。他们在2022年至2023年间的增长略有放缓，但业务已强劲加速，并且
Brookfield's ability to continue attracting more capital has resulted in its fee-related earnings growing at a compound annual growth rate of 16% since 2020. They saw a slight slowdown in growth between 2022 and 2023, but the business has accelerated strongly and is
他们还表示，他们相信未来五年可以实现每年超过20%的复合年增长率（CAGR），但官方指引指向每年15%至17%的增长。再说一次，他们认为有路径在2030年前实现20%的复合年增长率。
Over the next five years, they also say they believe they can achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% per annum, but official guidance points to annual growth between 15% and 17% .
Again, they see a path to achieving a 20% CAGR through 2030.
我也一直在跟踪 BAM 的历史指引与其当前表现，其费用相关收益实际上在往年是提前于计划的。然而，其可分配收益略落后于指引，主要是因为其附带权益回报的到账速度慢于预期。
I've also been tracking BAM's historical guidance against its current performance, and its fee-related earnings are actually ahead of schedule in previous years . However, its distributable earnings are slightly behind guidance, largely because its carry returns are coming in at a slower pace than expected.
话虽如此，BAM 的未实现回报正以惊人的速度累积，已经达到19亿美元。这些是未来某个时点将会实现的真实未来收益。实现的时间点有些不确定，但当这些收益开始实现，Brookfield 开始出售这些投资并产生相应利润时，其可分配收益可能会从此大幅增长。
That said, BAM's unrealized returns are accumulating at an incredible rate and have already reached $1.9 billion. These are real future earnings that will materialize at some point.
The timing of that is somewhat uncertain, but when those earnings start to materialize and Brookfield begins to sell With those investments and the resulting profits, their distributable earnings could grow significantly from here.
现在，让我们快速看一下我为 BAM 做的现金流折现（DCF）模型。在这个模型中，我使用了 BAM 未来五年的收益，假设它们每年增长15%，这是其当前指引区间的下限。我还设定了25倍的退出市盈率（P/E），低于该股今天的交易水平。
再说一次，历史上这家公司的市盈率曾超过30倍。最后，我假设他们将继续每年把股息提高15%，这是公司的关键目标之一。使用这些输入，我们得出未来五年股东总价值的复合年增长率（CAGR）为17.3%。
Now, let's take a quick look at my discounted cash flow (DCF) model for BAM. In this model, I'm using BAM's earnings over the next five years, assuming they will grow by 15% annually, which is at the lower end of their current guidance.
I've also set an exit price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25, which is lower than the stock is trading at today. Again, historically, this company has traded at over 30 times earnings.
Finally, I'm assuming they will continue to increase their dividend by 15% annually, which is one of the company's key objectives. Using these inputs, we get a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.3% for total shareholder value over the next five years.
我认为这些假设偏保守。因为 BAM 再次表示，它认为自己在未来五年内现实地实现每年20%的盈利增长，而其市盈率历史上一直高于30。
I think these inputs are skewed to the more conservative side. Because again, BAM believes it can realistically increase earnings by 20% annually over the next five years, and the P/E ratio has historically been above 30.
如果我们把 Brookfield Asset Management 的市盈率设定为30，考虑到未来几年估值倍数会有所扩张，并假设他们实现20%的年化盈利增长指引，那么复合年增长率（CAGR）将升至25.8%，这是很不错的五年回报。
If we set Brookfield Asset Management's P/E ratio at 30, Taking into account some expansion in the multiple over the next few years , and assuming they achieve their 20% annualized earnings growth guidance, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) rises to 25.8%, which is a great 5-year return.
现在，我明确认为这个现金流折现模型偏乐观。所以在我看来，我认为 BAM 在未来五年很可能实现15%到20%的年化回报，我认为这是非常强劲的回报。
Now, I clearly think this discounted cash flow model is optimistic. So, in my opinion, I think BAM will likely achieve annualized returns of 15% to 20% over the next five years, which I consider a very strong return.
这正是我在自己投资组合中追求的目标，而且我认为以今天的买入价可以实现这一点，风险还很低，尤其是考虑到 BAM 目前提供约4.5%的股息率。
This is exactly what I'm aiming for in my portfolio , and I think today's entry price can achieve this with low risk, especially considering that BAM currently offers a dividend yield of around 4.5%.
要让这只股票在未来五年实现约15%的年化回报，股价只需每年上涨约10%。如果它实现15%的年化盈利增长，我认为公司能够做到这一点，股价也能做到同样的事。
For the stock to achieve an annualized return of around 15% over the next five years, the stock price only needs to grow by about 10% annually . If it's achieving 15% annualized earnings growth, I think the company will be able to achieve this, and the stock will be able to do the same.
所以，最终让我相信的是，Brookfield Asset Management 的股票“在当今市场被低估了，尤其是如果他们能够达到自己的预期。但即使业绩低于他们的最低预测，我认为这只股票在这里看起来仍然非常有吸引力。
So, ultimately, what leads me to believe is that Brookfield Asset Management's stock "It's undervalued in today's market, especially if they manage to meet their expectations. But even if the results fall below their minimum forecast, I think the stock still looks very attractive here.
这就是为什么我把 Brookfield Asset Management 配置到超过我投资组合的6%，而且它是我持续买入的关键股票之一。如果股价保持低位，市场随着时间推移看不到我在这里看到的东西，而公司继续增长基本面，我会继续越来越多地加仓，因为我就是相信这是我能找到的最好的风险回报投资之一，尤其是因为它受到了利率上升的冲击，而我认为这不会显著影响其业务核心。
That's why I've made Brookfield Asset Management more than 6% of my portfolio , and it's one of the key stocks I continue to buy. If the stock price stays low and the market doesn't see what I see here over time, and the company continues to grow its fundamentals, I'll continue to add more and more to my portfolio because I simply believe it's one of the best risk-reward investments I can find, especially since it's been impacted by rising interest rates, which I don't think will significantly affect the core of the business.
所以，是的，我认为 BAM 股票目前的情况非常有吸引力，这就是为什么我持续加大对这家公司的投资。
So, yes, I think the current situation for BAM stock is very attractive, and that's why I've continued to increase my investment in this company.
这个频道对 $BAM 的历次判断
Daniel Pronk 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。