Bloom Energy 评级为持有；估值信号不一（市盈率具吸引力，但现金流折现模型显示估值偏高），信心偏低。
逐段跳播
Bloom Energy 已成为那些建设数据中心、却难以接入或连接当地电网的公司的首选能源供应商。因此，根据管理层的预测，Bloom Energy 的收入预计到 2026 年将实现三位数增长。
Bloom Energy has become the preferred energy supplier for companies building data centers that have difficulty accessing or connecting to the local electricity grid . As a result, Bloom Energy's revenue is projected to increase by triple digits by 2026, according to management's forecast.
由于在数据中心和大型云计算公司方面取得的这一成功，我对 Bloom Energy 产生了更大的兴趣，想要更仔细地研究一下，以判断该股现在是否构成买入机会，还是说这些成功已经体现在股价上——到 2026 年股价已上涨超过 200%。
Because of this success with data centers and large cloud computing companies, I became more interested in Bloom Energy and wanted to take a closer look to determine whether the stock represents a buying opportunity now or if all this success has already translated into a share price increase of over 200% by 2026.
看看 Bloom Energy 过去十年收入变化的图表，你就能看到人工智能对这项业务的影响。别误会我的意思，这家公司此前就已经在提升销售额了。
Looking at a graph of Bloom Energy's revenues over the past decade, you can see the impact artificial intelligence has had on the business. Don't misunderstand me, this company was already increasing its sales.
Bloom Energy 以可靠且实用的方式提供这种能源，这意味着企业可以依靠它来提供这套能源供应框架，而运营不会出现太大波动。
Bloom Energy provides that energy in a reliable and practical way, meaning that companies can rely on it to provide this energy supply framework without much variation in their operations.
该公司的产品是可以互换使用的。所以，假设她把设备送去为某个特定地点的某个特定数据中心供电，结果在最后一刻，数据中心与当地官员之间的协议被取消，导致该项目延期。Bloom Energy 就可以把这些资源改派到其他地方，把能源供应用到别处。
The company's products are interchangeable. So, suppose she sent units to operate a particular data center at a particular location and then at the last minute an agreement between the data center and local officials was canceled, delaying that project.
Bloom Energy could then redirect those resources elsewhere and use that energy supply elsewhere .
这让公司有信心去建设供应能力，以满足这个以前所未有速度增长的行业的需求。而你可以看到，这一增长轨迹在 2025 年呈爆发式上升。
This gave the company the confidence to build the supply to meet the needs of this unprecedentedly growing industry . And you can see this growth trajectory exploding in 2025.
过去 12 个月，该公司的业务收入已从 12.5 亿美元增长到 31.1 亿美元。当然，如果公司达到管理层设定的预期，那将是又一个 100% 增长的年份。
The company's business has grown from $1.25 billion in revenue to $3.11 billion over the past 12 months. Of course, if the company meets the expectations set by management, it will be another year of 100% growth.
但 Bloom Energy 并非如此。他们在收入增长的同时也在提升盈利能力。这正是我最愿意看到的。
But with Bloom Energy, this is not the case. They are growing their revenue and increasing their profitability at the same time. This is exactly what I love to see.
过去 12 个月，该公司的营业利润率为 11.2%，高于 2023 年的 -25%。同样，过去十年该公司的投入资本回报率一直处于相当稳定的上升轨迹。随着业务规模扩大，他们的运营效率也在提高。
这使得运营效率得以落实。规模经济和专有学习都促成了该公司的投入资本回报率升至 7.6%，高于 2017 年的 -80%。
The company’s operating profit margin over the past twelve months was 11.2%, up from -25% in 2023. Similarly, the company’s return on invested capital has been on a fairly steady upward trajectory over the past decade.
As their business grew in size, they became more efficient at what they did. This allows operational efficiencies to be implemented. Economies of scale and proprietary learning all contribute to the firm's return on invested capital rising to 7.6%, up from -80% in 2017.
7.6% 这个数字本身并不好，而且远低于该公司的加权平均资本成本。如果你认为这个数字在公司未来很长一段时间内都将保持不变，那它就不是一笔好的投资。
The figure itself at 7.6% is not good, and is well below the firm's weighted average cost of capital. If you believe that this number will remain the same for a long period of the company's future, it will not be a good investment.
不过，这个数字呈上升趋势，鉴于公司在这一领域取得了实实在在的成功——每多生产一单位产品的利润率都在改善，而规模又带来了更高的效率——我预计它还会继续上升。
However, the figure is trending upwards and I expect it to continue rising given the company’s tangible success in this category, where its profit margins for each additional unit are improving, and the size allows for greater efficiencies.
这些效率的一个方面，在我们观察研发支出与收入的比率时就变得清晰起来。当你还是一家小公司时，你在研发上投入一定金额，这占你收入的比例会比较大。但如果你持续提高收入，同时保持研发预算不变，或者即使增加研发预算，但增幅低于收入增长率，那么你就是在扩张，并享受到规模经济带来的好处。
你在研发上的支出更多了，但它占你总收入的比例却变小了。这正是 Bloom Energy 正在发生的情况。
One aspect of these efficiencies becomes clear when we look at the ratio of spending on research and development to revenues. When you are a small company and you invest a certain amount in research and development, that represents a larger percentage of your revenue.
But if you continue to increase your revenue and keep your research and development budget constant , or even increase it but by a percentage lower than your revenue growth rate, then you are expanding and realizing the benefits of economies of scale.
You are spending more on research and development, but it becomes a smaller percentage of your total revenue. This is what is happening at Bloom Energy.
研发与收入的比率已从 2017 年的约 27% 降至过去 12 个月的仅 7%。Bloom Energy 已经在这样做了。因此，考虑到这一业务表现，并将其与基于远期市盈率的估值相比较，这似乎是一个有吸引力的机会。
The ratio of research and development to revenue has fallen from about 27% in 2017 to just 7% over the past twelve months . Bloom Energy is already doing that. Therefore, considering this business activity and comparing it to its valuation based on a forward price-to-earnings ratio, it appears to be an attractive opportunity.
Bloom Energy 股票的远期市盈率为 58，对于一家收入增长 100%、享有有利条件、并在研发、投入资本回报率、营业利润率和现金流方面都在改善的公司来说，这是一个有吸引力的估值。这是一个有吸引力的买入价格。
Bloom Energy shares are trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 58, which is an attractive valuation for a company that is growing its revenues by 100%, enjoys favorable conditions, and is showing improvement in research and development, returns on invested capital, operating margins, and cash flow. It's an attractive price to buy.
不过，我也想用贴现现金流模型来考虑估值。用这个模型来看，该股价格似乎就没那么有吸引力了。因此，当前 289 美元的市场价格远高于我 147 美元的公允价值估计。
However, I would also like to consider valuation using the discounted cash flow model. Using this model, the stock price does not appear as attractive. Therefore, the current market price of $289 far exceeds my fair value estimate of $147.
我预计该公司将实现强劲增长。我估计它将在 2026 年产生 3.9 亿美元的自由现金流，到 2030 年将达到 39.4 亿美元。所以，我预计从现在到 2030 年，其自由现金流将增长 10 倍。
I expect strong growth for the company. I estimate that it will generate $390 million in free cash flow in 2026, and that will reach $ 3.94 billion by 2030. So, I am expecting a 10-fold increase in their free cash flow from now until 2030.
然而，我得到的公允价值相对于其市场价格而言相对偏低。我认为这指向了风险。这是市场上风险最高的股票之一。它的贝塔系数为3.1，这意味着它的风险是标普500指数中平均股票的三倍。或者换个说法，如果标普500指数上涨1%，Bloom Energy的股价通常会变动超过3%。
因此，它的波动性是标普500指数的三倍。这使它在我覆盖的所有公司中处于风险最高的一侧。
Yet, I am getting this relatively low fair value compared to its market price. I think this points to the risks. This is one of the riskiest stocks in the market. It has a beta coefficient of 3.1, which means it is three times riskier than the average stock in the S&P 500 index.
Or to put it another way, if the S&P 500 index rises by 1%, Bloom Energy stock typically moves by more than 3%. Therefore, it is three times more volatile than the S& P 500 index.
This puts it on the riskiest side among all the companies I cover.
机器人和自动驾驶汽车技术都将需要大量的电力生产，而我认为Bloom Energy处于非常有利的位置，可以从这一趋势中获益。
Robots and self- driving car technology will all require significant power generation, and I believe Bloom Energy is in an excellent position to capitalize on that.
但估值让我犹豫。目前，我希望看到更好的估值再买入这只股票。否则，它是支持人工智能系统的最令人兴奋的选择之一。目前，我会将这只股票归类为“持有”情形，但我对这一判断的信心水平相对较低，这意味着我可能会在不久的将来改变它，因为该板块非常活跃，变化非常快。
But the evaluation is what makes me hesitate. At the moment, I would like to see a better valuation for entering this stock. Otherwise, it is one of the most exciting options for supporting the artificial intelligence system .
Currently, I would classify the stock as a "hold" case, but my level of conviction in this assessment is relatively low , which means I may change it in the very near future because the sector is very dynamic and changes very quickly .
如果这里或那里出现重大修正，情况可能会改变，因为基于远期市盈率，这只股票看起来便宜。只有基于我对贴现现金流的评估，这只股票才显得估值过高。
If a substantial revision occurs here or there, it could change the situation, because based on the forward price-to-earnings ratio, the stock looks cheap. Only based on my assessment of the discounted cash flows does the stock appear overpriced.
这个频道对 $BE 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。