$BE · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-10-31
BE 营收增长 138% 至 12.4 亿美元,营业利润率从 9% 升至 23%,经营性现金流为 18%,而两年前为 -30%,ROIC 达到 13.7%。说话者长期看好,但股价接近 220 美元、而其合理估值为 158 美元,因此他目前不会买入,并重申持有,直到价格更低或在当前价格下业绩改善。
逐段跳播
正在成为大型数据中心供应商的 Bloom Energy 公布了季度财报,其中营收增长138%,达到12.4亿美元。
Bloom Energy, which is becoming a supplier to giant data centers, announced quarterly financial results in which revenues rose 138% to $1.24 billion .
Bloom Energy 是我正在关注的能源公司之一,我把它视为一个潜在的投资机会,以把握为这些数据中心供电所带来的日益增长的需求。
Bloom Energy is one of the energy companies I am monitoring as a potential investment opportunity to capitalize on the growing demand for powering these data centers .
Bloom Energy 也公布了这些业绩,其营业利润率升至23%,而去年同期为9%。这正是我在“Bloom Energy”身上看到的,也正是它吸引我将其作为投资组合潜在投资标的的原因。
Bloom Energy also announced these results, with its operating profit margin rising to 23% compared to 9% in the same quarter last year. This is exactly what I see with "Bloom Energy ", and it is what attracts me to this company as a potential investment for my portfolio.
那么,让我们一起仔细看看它是否是一个买入机会,把它近期改善的业绩与估值放在一起权衡,判断它是否是一只值得买入的、有吸引力的 AI 股票。
So, let's take a closer look together to see if it's a buying opportunity, by balancing its recent improved performance with its valuation to determine if it's an attractive AI stock worth buying.
看 Bloom Energy 的10年营收增长图,我能看到近几年出现了这种加速。2024年,该公司的营收从15亿美元下滑到约12.5亿美元,之后才真正起飞,并开始从那些把“Bloom Energy”视为可靠电源的大型公司那里获得收入,原因是全美大量数据中心正在建设,而可用的电力接入不足,造成了制约。
Looking at Bloom Energy's 10-year revenue growth chart, I can see this acceleration in recent years. In 2024, the company's revenues were declining from $1.5 billion to about $1.25 billion before it actually took off and began generating revenue from giant companies that were looking to " Bloom Energy" as a reliable power source, as a result of the constraints caused by the large number of data centers being built across the United States and the lack of available power connectivity.
因此,对于建设这些数据中心的公司来说,Bloom Energy 已成为一个实用且可靠的选择,过去12个月营收已跃升至38亿美元。
Therefore, Bloom Energy has emerged as a practical and reliable option for companies building these data centers, and revenues have jumped to $3.8 billion over the past 12 months.
这大约是一年半前水平的三倍。我已经提到过,它的营业利润率相比去年同期大幅提升。
This represents approximately three times what it was about a year and a half ago. I have already mentioned that its operating profit margins have increased significantly compared to the same quarter last year.
鉴于这项业务资本密集度高,我还想看到它的现金流也有所改善。这样一来,公司就有了重新投入业务、加快供应所需的资金,因为需求正等着它。
Given the high capital intensity of this business, I wanted to see an improvement in its cash flows as well. In this way, the company has the capital needed to reinvest in the business to accelerate supply, because demand is waiting for it.
如果公司能够建起来,就有客户排队等着购买他们的产品和服务。确实,他们的经营性现金流正在显著改善,达到18%,而两年前是-30%。
If the company manages to build, they have customers waiting in line to buy their products and services. Indeed, their cash flow from operations is improving significantly, reaching 18% after being -30% two years ago.
同样,投入资本回报率也有所改善,过去12个月达到13.7%。
Similarly, returns on invested capital have also improved, reaching 13.7% over the past 12 months .
这一指标已从近几年的负值水平回升,这对投资者来说是一个积极信号,凸显出这项业务可能实现盈利,尤其是在需求不断增长的情况下。
This has risen from negative levels in recent years, which is a positive sign for investors, highlighting that this business could be profitable, especially with increasing demand.
目前,数据中心是公司产品需求的主要驱动力,但随着经济开始向电气化转型,国家乃至世界在这方面的能源需求正在不断升级。
Currently, data centers are the main driver of demand for the company's products, but the country's and the world's energy needs, in this regard, are escalating as the economy begins to shift towards electricity.
未来几年数据中心仍将是主要驱动力,但也可能有其他催化剂,比如电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车技术的普及。我们还有机器人和物流,仓库里的机器人自动化,这样的例子还有很多。
Data centers will be the driving force over the next few years , but there may be other catalysts such as the spread of electric cars and self-driving car technology. We have robotics and logistics, robotic automation in warehouses, and the list goes on.
所以,这就是推动能源需求加速的原因,而我认为这种高需求将持续数年,甚至数十年。
So, this is what has led to the acceleration of energy demand, but I think this high demand will continue for several years, if not several decades.
在考虑这家公司的业务及其前景,并结合市盈率所反映的估值来权衡时,41 的市盈率看起来是被低估了。鉴于营收正以三位数的速度增长,而且这些营收的可持续性很可能还会延续数年;鉴于营业利润率和经营性现金流也在改善,投入资本回报率同样在提升,这家公司之所以能创造更多营收,并不是因为它在提供更优惠的条件、折扣或促销;事实上,它之所以能创造更多营收,是因为全球能源需求发生了结构性转变,而这正推动公司产品和服务的购买量激增。
When considering the business and its prospects, and weighing them against the valuation based on the price-to-earnings ratio , it appears to be undervalued at 41. Given that revenues are growing in triple digits and that the sustainability of those revenues is likely to continue for several years; Given that operating margins and cash flow from operations are also improving, along with returns on invested capital, the company is not generating more revenue because it is offering more attractive terms, discounts, or promotional offers ; In fact, it generates more revenue because there is a structural shift in energy demand worldwide, and this is causing a surge in the purchase of the company’s products and services.
因此,在公司公布财务业绩并上调指引之后,我也上调了公司的现金流折现估值。我预计这家公司在 2027 年和 2028 年将多产生几亿美元的自由现金流,从长期来看也是如此。
Therefore, after the company announced its financial results and raised its forecasts, I also revised the company's discounted cash flow estimates upwards. I expect the company to generate a few hundred million more in free cash flow in 2027 and 2028, and in the long term as well.
所以,经过这些评估之后,我对这只股票公允价值的估计有所上调,但仍低于当前市场价格。
So, after those reviews, my estimate of the stock's fair value has increased , but it is still lower than the current market price.
我计算出的价值是 158 美元,而录制这段视频时当前市场价格约为 220 美元。回答我问自己的那个问题:现在是不是一个好的买入机会?我不这么认为,还不是。
I calculated the value of the work at $158, while the current market price is around $220 at the time this video was recorded. To answer the question I asked myself, is this a good buying opportunity right now? I don't think so, not yet.
我对这家公司的长期前景非常乐观。我希望能买入这只股票,但我只想以比今天更低的价格买入。或者我希望看到业绩继续改善,而价格保持在今天的水平,这样我就能以同样的价格买到更值钱的业绩。
I am very optimistic about this company's long-term prospects. I would like to be able to buy this stock, but I just want to pay a lower price than it is today. Or I want to see the work performance continue to improve, while the price remains the same as today, so that I get work worth more, but at the same price.
无论如何,我不会以现在的价格买入,因此我重申对这家公司的“持有”评级。
Regardless, I will not be buying now at these prices, so I reiterate my "hold" rating for this business.
观察点
这个频道对 $BE 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。