$BKNG · Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. · 2026-10-30
尽管Booking看起来便宜——市盈率18倍、每股收益因回购增长15%、8.3%的自由现金流回报率（保守估算约合13%）、高个位数至中低双位数增长——但股价已较8月高点下跌24-28%。AI可能压缩利润率但不会摧毁业务，平台费用冲击加上旅游低迷又增添风险；对说话者而言，风险回报比不够有吸引力。
逐段跳播
我怎么看 Booking.com？这只股票自8月高点以来已下跌24%。增长在放缓，市场对人工智能也有担忧，但底层业务活动可能依然强劲。目前回报不错，还有股票回购。
What is my opinion of Booking.com? The stock has fallen 24% since its peak in August. Growth is slowing, and there are concerns about artificial intelligence, but underlying activity may be strong. Good returns now, and share buybacks.
看这家公司，股价目前已下跌28%。市盈率是18，股息率是1%，而看过去十二个月的底层业务活动，一切仍在增长。息税折旧摊销前利润率在增长，各方面都在改善。营收增长8%，净利润增长8%，由于股票回购，摊薄每股收益增长15%。
这是两位数增长，市盈率却只有18。这便宜得离谱。资本回报是40亿，这是历史上最高的单季回报。我们在这里能看到良好的现金流。
Looking at the company, the stock has now fallen by 28%. The price-to-earnings ratio is 18, the dividend yield is 1%, and if we look at the underlying activity over the past twelve months, everything is still growing.
The profit margin before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization is growing, and everything is improving. Revenue increased by 8%, net income increased by 8%, and diluted earnings per share due to share buybacks increased by 15%.
That's double-digit growth with a price-to-earnings ratio of 18. That's insanely cheap. The return on capital is 4 billion, which is the highest quarterly return in history. We can see good cash flows here.
现在，如果把这里的现金流与市值相比，看起来真的很好，尤其是与增长相比。业绩指引依然维持，高个位数到低至中两位数的增长，因为他们做了大量股票回购，甚至超过自由现金流。所以，一切看起来都不错。
Now, if we compare the cash flows here to the market value, it looks really good, especially when compared to the growth. The guidance remains in place, high single-digit to low and mid-double double-digit growth, as they do a lot of share buybacks, even more than free cash flow. So, everything looks good.
全球旅游稳定并略有增长。在其他因素不变的情况下，它还会增长更多。要知道，克罗地亚每个人来度假时都在抱怨不断上涨的价格，但需求很高，有通胀，价格在上涨，而 Booking.com 作为收费型业务，正从这种通胀中获取越来越多的收益。
所以，平台的收费很好，结构很好，而且易于使用；一切看起来都非常出色。但股价为什么下跌了？
Global travel is stable and growing slightly. With other factors remaining constant, it will grow more. Keep in mind that everyone in Croatia complains about the ever-increasing prices when they come for holidays, but there is high demand, inflation, prices are rising, and Booking.com, as a fee-based business, is reaping more and more of this inflation.
So, the platform's fees are great, the structure is great, and it's easy to use; everything looks excellent. But why did the stock price drop?
另外，如果比较自由现金流，我们发现自由现金流回报率为8.3%。如果这个比率以低至中两位数的速度增长，也就是12%加上1%的股息派发，那么即使在最保守的情景下，你看到的投资回报率也是13%。
Also, if we compare the free cash flow, we find a free cash flow return of 8.3%. If this ratio grows at a rate between low and medium double digits, i.e. 12% plus 1% dividend payouts, then even in the most conservative scenario, you are looking at a return on investment of 13%.
然后我们来看人工智能，我首先问我的朋友“DeepSec”。我并不为 DeepSec 付费；它给我的答案比 Google 更好，而我每月为 Google 的高级版付200美元甚至更多，这太疯狂了。
是的，这种混乱确实存在。它会产生影响。它不会是彻底的毁灭，但可能导致利润率问题，而不是消失。“Gemini”给出的类似答案不如“DeepSec”那么直接或明确。而当我将细节与其他情况比较时，也很有意思。
就这些。这就是底线。这不是灾难，所以如果情况保持不变，Booking.com 在未来几年可以继续走下去。
Then we move on to artificial intelligence, and I first ask my friend "DeepSec". And I don't pay for DeepSec; it gives me better answers than Google, which I pay $200 a month or more for the premium version, which is crazy.
Yes, the disorder exists. It will have an impact. It will not be total destruction, but it may lead to a problem with profit margins, not disappearance. A similar answer from "Gemini" is not as direct or explicit as "DeepSec".
And when I compare the details with other situations, it is also very interesting. That's all. That's the bottom line. It's not a disaster, so if things stay the same, Booking.com can continue for the next few years.
这只是我个人的感觉。如果我们面临旅游业的低迷，15%这个数字可能会略有下降。谁知道呢，除了目前看起来很好的因素之外，还有其他因素，比如糟糕的一年之类的情况。这构成了风险，尤其是因为人工智能是一项强大的技术。这是一项基于技术的业务。
This is just a personal feeling of mine. The 15% figure could drop a little if we face a slump in travel. Who knows, there are other factors outside of what seems great right now, a bad year or something like that.
This creates a risk, especially since artificial intelligence is a powerful technology. This is a technology-based business.
因此，Booking.com 收取的费用，从10%到15%或20%，取决于你在 Booking.com 列表上的位置。因为我来自这里，这里每个人都拥有这些公寓，我们都是租赁经济的一部分。
顺便说一句，牙买加和新加坡已决定把重点放在教育上。克罗地亚也在发生同样的事情，但说来话长。不过，Booking.com 收取的10%、15%或20%的费用，低于其他运营商过去收取的40%。
他们被“Booking”搅乱了。而现在，仍有5%或10%可能流向世界上的其他平台。因此，仍有被颠覆的空间，这让情况具有风险。不是毁灭，但这是一个很好的例子。
Therefore, the fees charged by Booking.com, from 10% to 15% or 20%, depend on your position on Booking.com's list. Since I'm from here, and everyone here owns these apartments, we're all part of the rental economy.
Just a note, Jamaica and Singapore have decided to focus on education. The same thing is happening in Croatia, but it's a long story. However, the 10, 15 or 20% fees charged by Booking.com are less than the 40% that other operators used to charge in the past.
They were disturbed by "Booking". And now, there is still 5% or 10% that may go to other platforms in the world. Therefore, there is still room for disruption, which makes the situation risky. Not destruction, but this is a great example.
当这种情况发生时，Booking.com 的股价将已经又下跌了50%。如果这种情况没有发生，它可能会继续目前的走势，但对我来说，风险与回报不够有吸引力。一切皆有可能，是的，但技术的存在就是为了被新技术颠覆。
预订技术是一项旧技术；它容易被颠覆。这可能会发生，也可能不会。目前没人知道，但这只是我不愿承担的风险。
When that happens, Booking.com's stock will have already dropped another 50%. If that doesn't happen, it may continue on its current path, but for me, the risk and reward are not attractive enough.
Everything is possible, yes, but technology exists to be disrupted by new technology. Booking technology is an old technology; it is prone to disruption. It may happen, and it may not.
Nobody knows yet, but it's just a risk I wouldn't take.