Bumble 正以每股 6.05 美元现金被收购，溢价 138%；作为股东，说话者会接受这一报价，并很可能退出，因为在约 5.95 美元的水平上，剩余上涨空间仅约 10 美分，而若交易失败则可能回落至约 2 美元，且他并不预期会有更高的报价。
逐段跳播
Bumble 的股价仅在过去两天就上涨了约135%。事实上，这并不是我作为 Bumble 股东所预期的结果。它如今已成为 Asymmetric 投资组合中一个意料之外的赢家，
Bumble's stock has risen by approximately 135% in just the last two days. In fact, this is not the result I expected as a shareholder in " Bumble". It has now become an unexpected win in the Asymmetric portfolio,
但我会接受这笔收购，因为公司的发展方向并没有按照我当初开始买入股票时所设想的那样走。有时候你的假设并不会完全按计划实现，但当你买入那些能产生正自由现金流、并且估值非常合理的公司时，一个很大的优势就在于，有可能会有别人来收购这家公司并改变它的走向。
but I will accept this acquisition because the business has not gone in the direction I thought when I started buying the shares. Sometimes your hypothesis doesn't go exactly as planned, but when you buy companies that generate positive free cash flow and trade at a very good valuation, one of the great advantages is the possibility that someone else could take over the company and change its course.
所以，这现在对我来说已经成为一个盈利的持仓，但我想仔细梳理一下我们关于这笔收购究竟了解到了什么，以及为什么这只股票涨得这么猛。
So, this has now become a profitable position for me, but I want to review exactly what we have learned about this acquisition, and why the stock is exploding so much .
像这样高溢价率的收购并不常见，但有时候它对各方来说都说得通。如果你想从我这里获得更多内容，包括我所有的股票买入，比如 Bumble 的股票，请关注 Asymmetric Investing。
It is not common to see acquisitions with this much price premium, but sometimes it makes sense for all parties involved. If you want more from me, including all my stock purchases, such as Bumble stock, follow Asymmetric Investing.
这就是我在整个视频中会用到的东西，包括这张图，它显示了昨天下午2点左右行情是如何爆发的。现在，在这段时间里它已经上涨了约135%。这里包含了关于 Bumble 你需要了解的所有信息。
This is what I will be using throughout this video, including this graph which shows how things exploded at around 2:00 PM yesterday. Now, it has risen by about 135% in that time period .
This contains all the information you need about "Bumble".
公司的市销率只有1.1。在收购传闻开始传播之前，这个比率大约在0.5左右。按预期计算的市自由现金流比率只有大约5倍。因此，这个估值已经变得非常有吸引力。
The company's value-to- sales ratio is only 1.1. This ratio was around 0.5 before the takeover rumors began to spread. The price- to-free-cash-flow ratio on a forward basis is only about five.
Therefore, this rating has become very attractive.
这是买入这家公司的投资者会关注的一个方面，但让我们更深入地探讨这一切。
This is one aspect that investors who buy the company look at, but let's delve deeper into all of this.
让我们从今天开盘前发布的官方消息说起。Bumble 已同意一笔收购，根据该收购，股东将获得每股6.05美元现金，较这则消息传出前的股价溢价138%。董事会已批准了这笔交易。
Let's start with the official news that was released before the market opened today. Bumble has agreed to an acquisition under which shareholders will receive $6.05 per share in cash, representing a 138% premium over the share price before this news broke. The board of directors has approved this.
Whitney Wolfe Heard 与这家公司有着复杂的历史，她目前是首席执行官，但此前曾卸任。她在公司所持股份也涉及一些债务，但她没有参与实际批准这笔交易的投票，不过 Blackstone 和 Herd 的子公司也批准了这笔交易。
另一个有意思的地方是，她实际上将被赶下这个职位。
Whitney Wolfe Heard, who has a complicated history with the company, is currently the CEO, but previously stepped down. There are also debts associated with its stake in the company, but it did not participate in the vote to actually approve this deal, but the subsidiaries of Blackstone and Herd also approved the deal.
The other interesting part is that she will actually be forced out of her position.
收购这家公司的 Ithika 将设有联席执行董事 Ruby Gupta 和 John Hagman，而这主要是一笔机会主义式的收购。
Ithika, the company that is buying the firm, will have co-executive directors, Ruby Gupta and John Hagman, and this is primarily an opportunistic acquisition of this company.
让我们看看这里的一些数字，并准确解释 Bumble 到底发生了什么。公司有很多事情进展不顺。我大约在一年前开始买入股票。那么，让我们看看总营收。你可以看到它在下降。营业利润略有改善，让我们看看自由现金流，因为这是看这样一家公司时的另一个方面。他们实际上实现了非常正的自由现金流。
Let's look at some numbers here and explain exactly what was happening with Bumble. Many things don't go right with the company. I started acquiring shares about a year or so ago .
So, let's take a look at the total revenue. You can see that it is in decline. Operating profit has improved slightly, and let's take a look at free cash flow, because that's the other part when looking at a company like this.
They have actually achieved a very positive free cash flow.
那么，让我们聚焦于这里的这个方面。我们可以看到，营收自2024年底以来实际上一直在下降。与此同时，自由现金流一直在改善。
So, let's focus on this aspect here. We can see that revenues have actually been declining since the end of 2024. At the same time, free cash flow has been improving.
所以，Heard 重新出任公司首席执行官时带来的策略是，我们不想专注于服务每一位客户。我们想专注于最认真的客户。我们准备为此收取更高的价格。因此，我们将放弃会员数量，以换取更高的价格，并由此获得更高的利润率。而这正是我们在数字中看到的。
So, the strategy that Heard brought when she became CEO again at the company was, you know, we don't want to focus on serving each customer individually. We want to focus on the most serious client.
We are prepared to charge a higher price for that. Therefore, we will give up membership numbers in exchange for higher prices and higher profit margins as a result. And that's exactly what we see in the numbers.
这是金融人工智能中的一个关键绩效指标。绿色代表在 Bumble 应用上付费的用户数量。你可以看到它在2024年底前后达到峰值。所以，这个数字现在已降至210万用户，但他们支付的价格在上升。
因此，它曾降至约24.80美元的最低水平。现在，这已经涨到了27.60美元。
This is one of the key performance indicators in financial artificial intelligence. The green color represents the number of users who pay on the Bumble app. You can see that this peaked near the end of 2024.
So, the number has now dropped to 2.1 million users, but the price they pay is on the rise. Therefore, it reached its lowest level at around $24.80. Now, that has risen to $27.60.
这样一来，事情在某种程度上正朝着正确的方向发展，但箭头并没有明确地指向正确的方向。那么，这只是对今年迄今表现的一个观察。你可以看到，在这笔收购要约之前，股价下跌了约30%。如果你回溯3年，你会发现即使算上今天的走势，股价也下跌了约58%。
5年。你可以回溯很久。对 Bumble 股东来说，这不是一段好时光。
In this way, things are moving in the right direction somewhat, but the arrow was not clearly moving in the right direction. So, this is just a look at the year's performance so far.
You can see that the shares fell by about 30% before this takeover bid . If you go back 3 years, you will find that even after today’s move, the stocks have fallen by about 58%. 5 years.
You can go back a lot. It was not a good time for Bumble shareholders.
管理层原本计划实施的转型方案比预期慢得多。现在这个领域的竞争也很激烈。因此，有时候最好的选择是将公司私有化并进行大刀阔斧的改革。他们经营公司的方式可能会有些不同，但他们显然愿意支付高于市场原本愿意支付的价格。
The transformation plan that management was planning to implement was much slower than expected . Now there is a lot of competition in this field as well. Therefore, sometimes the best option is to take the company private and make sweeping changes.
They may run the company a little differently, but they are clearly willing to pay a premium over what the market was willing to pay.
我认为 Heard 对最终价格有重大影响。正因如此，溢价远高于该股的交易价格。对于非对称投资者来说，这是一只我会放在非对称组合里持有的股票。目前这里正在产生小幅盈利，最终盈利幅度在30%到40%之间。
我很可能会把这笔资金转到更好的机会上。为此去冒这个风险并不值得。
I think Heard had a significant influence on the final price. For this reason, the premium is much higher than the stock's trading price . For asymmetric investors , this is a stock I would hold in an asymmetric portfolio.
This is now generating a small profit here. A profit ranging from 30 to 40 percent in the end. I will most likely transfer this to better opportunities. It's not worth the risk of actually doing this.
这是投资者现在需要考虑的问题。你可以以大约5.95美元卖出这些股票。在这桩潜在的收购要约中，这会让你放弃大约10美分。你在这里承担的风险是，如果收购失败，股价很可能会回到那个更低的价位，即每股2美元。
作为投资者，我很可能会摆脱这个风险。你同时也放弃了以更高价格发起另一次收购要约的可能性。我并不一定认为会出现这种情况。这一领域很可能不会发生太多整合。
This is what investors need to think about now. You can sell the shares for about $5.95. It will give up about 10 cents in this potential takeover bid . The risk you take here is that if the acquisition fails, you will likely return to that lower price, $2 per share.
As an investor, I'm likely to get rid of this risk. You are also giving up the possibility of making another takeover bid at a higher price. I don't necessarily think that will be the case.
It is likely that not much consolidation will occur in this area.
但对于那些持有 Bumble 股票几天、甚至直到昨天1点55分才买入的投资者来说，过去24小时左右的表现非常惊人。这肯定不是我预期该股会有的表现，但作为股东，我会接受它。告诉我你对这笔“Bumble”收购的看法。
But for investors who had held Bumble shares for a few days or even as late as 1:55 yesterday, this was an amazing performance over the past 24 hours or so. This is certainly not what I expected from the stock, but I will accept it as a shareholder .
Tell me your opinion about the " Bumble" acquisition.