伯克希尔业务众多、没有债务、收入来源多元，因此极具可持续性，远比微软或苹果更可持续，而后两者可能增长潜力更大。说话者推荐伯克希尔作为指数基金的良好替代品，即“巴菲特指数”。
逐段跳播
即便是沃伦·巴菲特这样的人，也做过三四百笔以上的投资。其中只有十二笔产生了成果。成功率大约为3-4%。
Even someone like Warren Buffett made more than three or four hundred investments. Only twelve of them yielded results. The success rate was approximately 3-4%.
以巴菲特为例，他买下了Dexter Shoes，一家位于缅因州的美国制鞋商。他拿出伯克希尔2%的股份来收购这家公司。收购之后几乎立刻，这家公司就陷入了困境。
Take Buffett, for example, who bought Dexter Shoes, an American shoe manufacturer from Maine. He gave 2% of his Berkshire shares to buy that company. Almost immediately after the purchase, the company ran into problems.
他忽略的是，生产完全在美国进行，而制鞋生产其实早已转移到海外。所以Dexter没有竞争力。最终，这笔投资实际上变得一文不值。而如果你看伯克希尔一万亿的市值，好吗？那就是200亿。
而这200亿，让巴菲特极为在意。好吗？就为了一件如此显而易见的事。我们认为这是显而易见的，对吧？
What he overlooked was that production took place entirely in the US, whereas shoe production had actually been moved abroad. So Dexter was not competitive. Ultimately, the entire investment was effectively worthless.
And if you look at Berkshire's market capitalization of a trillion, okay? That is 20 billion. And 20 billion, that bothers Buffett enormously . Okay? For something that is so obvious . We think it is obvious, right?
所以，如果我们看Berkshire Hathaway这样的公司，可持续性极强。他们有那么多不同的业务，没有债务，有那么多不同的收入来源。它非常可持续。Berkshire Hathaway比Microsoft可持续得多。
比Apple可持续得多。对吧？它们可能有更大的增长潜力，但这家公司非常可持续。好。
So, if we look at a company like Berkshire Hathaway , extremely sustainable. They have so many different activities, no debt, all those different revenue streams. It is very sustainable.
Berkshire Hathaway is much more sustainable than Microsoft. Much more sustainable than Apple. Right? They might have more growth potential, but this is very sustainable. Okay.
当Greg Abel领导MidAmerican Energy、也就是Berkshire Hathaway Energy的时候，那是在他成为Berkshire Hathaway的CEO之前，当然。
Berkshire Hathaway Energy增长得非常快。它是一家电力公司，对吧？好吗？它不是你想的那样。你看电力公司，它们通常不会增长那么快。但这一家的价值增长了50到70倍。
Greg Abel是亿万富翁，对吧？而他成为亿万富翁，靠的是在那家公司里非常小的一部分股份。之所以会这样，是巴菲特所说的，而巴菲特并没有夸张。他说的是，Greg在上午10点做完的事，我一整天都做不完。
巴菲特本人精力非常充沛。但他说，这些人，Greg、Dave Sokol和Greg Abel，要强10倍。
When Greg Abel led MidAmerican Energy , Berkshire Hathaway Energy, before he became CEO of Berkshire Hathaway , sure. Berkshire Hathaway Energy grew enormously fast. It is an electricity company, right?
Okay? It is not what you think. You look at electricity companies, and they normally don't grow that fast. But this one has increased in value 50 to 70 times . Greg Abel is a billionaire, right?
And he became a billionaire with a very small stake in that company. The reason this happened is what Buffett says, and Buffett is not exaggerating. What he says is that what Greg gets done at 10:00 AM, I don't get done all day .
Buffett himself is very energetic. But He says that these men, Greg Dave Sokol and Greg Abel, are 10x better .
而如果你看Berkshire Hathaway，沃伦手下有100多位领导者。好吗？他只对其中两个人做出了这番评价。好吗？他没有对任何其他人做出评价。而他挑选了这两个人作为他们的接班人，那种精力充沛的类型。
And if you look at Berkshire Hathaway , you know, Warren has more than 100 leaders under him. Okay? He only made this comment about two of them . Okay? He didn't make a comment about anyone else.
And he picked these two men as their successors, the energetic types.
这与巴菲特会说的形成对比，即：以合理的价格买入一家高质量的公司。而这是否是因为Berkshire和巴菲特的运作规模如此之大，以至于他们能从那些敏捷投资者可以专注的小型市场板块中获利？
That stands in contrast to what Buffett would say, namely: buy a high-quality company for a fair price. And is that because Berkshire and Buffett operate on such a large scale that they profit from those small market segments that agile investors can focus on?
我想说，即便是沃伦·巴菲特这样的人——Berkshire Hathaway源自沃伦·巴菲特在60年间产生的12个伟大想法。他在过去60年里做了300或400多笔投资。其中只有12笔真正起到了作用。
所以即便是巴菲特这样的人，成功率也只有3%或4%。
I would say that even someone like Warren Buffett–Berkshire Hathaway originated from 12 great ideas that Warren Buffett had over a period of 60 years. He has made more than 300 or 400 investments in the past 60 years.
Only 12 of them have really made a difference . So even for someone like Buffett, the success rate was only 3 or 4%.
我认为指数基金的一个不错替代选择是把钱投进Berkshire。巴菲特指数。对，就选巴菲特指数。
I think a good alternative to an index fund is to put it in Berkshire. The Buffett Index. Yes, go for the Buffett index.
这个频道对 $BRK.B 的历次判断
New Money 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。