$BRK.B · Investing Simplified - Professor G · 2026-11-05
Berkshire Hathaway 是持有而非当前买入：上季度营业利润跃升 16% 至近 130 亿美元，其中能源增长 27%，制造/零售服务增长 24%。该股今年上涨约 7%、上月上涨 7% 创历史新高后，并不算便宜；分析师目标价为 542-556 美元，UPS 为 628 美元，Morningstar 公允价值为 510 美元，历史上曾出现四次 37%-59% 的下跌。我会让它继续增长，但已暂停每月买入，今天不会加仓。
逐段跳播
第一个仓位实际上是我所有个股投资组合中最大的持仓，也就是 Berkshire Hathaway，BRKB。在我录制这段内容时，它的交易价格约为540美元，略低于10月26日创下的收盘纪录。
该股今年上涨了约7%，仅上个月就上涨了7%，其中包括连续10个交易日上涨。去年9月，我告诉大家，Berkshire Hathaway 已经横盘了一段时间，而我在大举买入。这份耐心开始得到回报了。
那么，为什么在其他许多公司苦苦挣扎的时候，Berkshire 却在上涨？首先，投资者寻求安全。10月5日至20日期间，SOXX 半导体 ETF 下跌了约15%，而 Berkshire 继续其上涨趋势。
此外，其持仓中的两家大公司 Chevron 和 Occidental 上个月因油价上涨而上涨了10%以上。其次，业务取得了良好业绩。上季度营业利润跃升16%，达到近130亿美元，其中能源板块增长27%，制造和零售服务增长24%。
Berkshire 还拥有约1775亿美元的保险流动性可供投资。第三，Greg Abel 运用现金流。Berkshire 回购了45亿美元的股票，向 Alphabet 投资了100亿美元，并以约68亿美元收购了 Taylor Morrison。
那么，在我看来，Berkshire 现在还是买入选项吗？考虑到分析师的平均目标价，它们从542美元到556美元不等。尽管 UPS 预计它会达到628美元。Morning Star 估计该股的公允价值仅为510美元。
所以，在这轮上涨之后，Berkshire 并不算便宜。而且记住，即便是 Berkshire 也不能免于暴跌。巴菲特本人记录了 Berkshire 历史上四次单独的跌幅，幅度在37%到59%之间。
即便是最好的投资也会经历剧烈波动。因此，我目前对 Berkshire 的决定是持有。长期以来，它一直是我每月买入的股票之一。但在最近这轮飙升之后，我对现有的持仓感到满意。我很乐意让它继续增长，但我今天不会再加仓，因为它现在 literally 处于历史最高点。
The first position is actually my largest holding in my portfolio of all individual stocks, which is Berkshire Hathaway, BRKB. It is trading at around $540 as I record this, slightly below its record close on October 26.
The stock has risen by about 7% this year and 7% in the last month alone, including a 10-day winning streak. Last September, I told you all that Berkshire Hathaway had been trading sideways for some time, and that I was buying it heavily.
Well, this patience is starting to pay off. So why is Berkshire on the rise while so many other companies are struggling? First, investors look for security. Between October 5 and 20, the SOXX Semiconductor ETF fell by about 15%, while Berkshire continued its upward trend.
In addition, two major companies within its holdings, Chevron and Occidental, rose by more than 10% last month thanks to higher oil prices. Secondly, the business is achieving good results.
Operating profit jumped 16% to nearly $13 billion last quarter, with the energy sector rising 27% and manufacturing and retail services rising 24%. Berkshire also has approximately $177.5 billion in insurance liquidity available for investment.
Third, Greg Abel employs cash flow. Berkshire repurchased $4.5 billion worth of shares, invested $10 billion in Alphabet, and acquired Taylor Morrison for about $6.8 billion. So, in my opinion, is Berkshire still a buy option now?
Well, considering the average analyst targets, they range from $542 to $556. Although UPS expects it to reach $628. Morning Star estimates the fair value of the stock at just $510.
So, after this rise, Berkshire is not exactly cheap. And remember, even Berkshire is not immune to collapses. Buffett himself documented four separate declines ranging between 37% and 59% in Berkshire's history.
Even the best investments experience sharp fluctuations. Therefore, my decision regarding Berkshire at the moment is to keep. It has been one of the stocks I buy every month for a long time.
But after this recent surge, I'm content with what I have. I'm happy to let it continue to grow, but I won't be adding any more today because it's literally at its all-time high.
我会继续持有 Berkshire Hathaway 的股票，因为在这轮上涨后我暂停了每月买入，但我很高兴看到它们上涨。
I will hold onto Berkshire Hathaway shares, as I paused my monthly purchases after this surge, but I am pleased to see them rising.
这个频道对 $BRK.B 的历次判断
Investing Simplified - Professor G 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。