$CAKE · Financial Education · 2026-10-26
CAKE 是罕见的机会,拥有多个可规模化扩张的概念——Flowerchild 目前门店不足 100 家,长期有望达到 800 家,还有 North Italia——以及抗衰退的 Cheesecake Factory。其远期市盈率为 23,而 Cava 为 54,折价明显,说话者不会卖出,但涨幅有限:达不到 Chipotle 的规模,Flowerchild 或许有 500% 至 1000%。
逐段跳播
但然后你看到 The Cheesecake Factory 这样的股票,对吧?你可能觉得现在是这家公司有史以来最好的时候。股价是110美元。几年前它还在30多美元的时候我就在买这家公司的股票,现在它到了110美元。
你觉得这是人类历史上餐饮业最好的时候。这真的很奇怪,不是吗?
But then you have a stock like The Cheesecake Factory, right? You might think this is the best time ever for that company. The stock is at $110. I was buying stock of this company a few years ago when it was in the 30s, and now it's at $110.
You think this is the best time for restaurants in the history of mankind. It's really strange, isn't it?
不,Cake 的关键在于,这是一个非常罕见的投资机会。我们拥有多个华尔街最初就开始关注的概念。华尔街终于开始明白了,我已经谈这件事好几年了,不是吗?但华尔街终于开始意识到,他们拥有多个可以在全美国推广的概念,这样的机会你多久能遇到一次?几乎从来不会发生。
No, the thing about Cake is that this is a very rare investment opportunity. We have multiple concepts that Wall Street started with. Street is finally getting the hang of it, and I've been talking about this for years, haven't I?
But Wall Street is finally starting to realize that they have multiple concepts that will be scaled across the USA, and how often do you get an opportunity like that? It almost never happens.
哪怕只有一个概念能在全美国推广,带来出色的营收、极好的利润率和每家餐厅的高盈利能力,那都很难,老兄。极其困难。而他们通过 Flowerchild 做到了。他们谈到长期可能将其扩展到800家门店。
目前他们大约有50家门店,或者稍多一点,对吧?现在不到100家。他们谈到长期要达到800家门店,同时保持极好的利润率。这很难实现。但他们做到了,不是吗?
To have even one concept that you can implement across the USA, with great revenue, excellent profit margins, and high profitability per restaurant. That's tough, man. Incredibly tough.
And they have it with Flowerchild. They're talking about potentially scaling it up to 800 locations in the long term. Right now they have about 50 locations or a little more, right?
Under 100 right now. They're talking about reaching 800 locations in the long term while maintaining great profit margins. That's tough to achieve. But they have it, haven't they?
然后是 North Italy,程度稍小一些,但他们能够在全美国不同且独特的地区推广它,对吧?无论从哪个角度看,这都是一个非凡的机会。你根本找不到类似的东西。两个概念,你将与它们一起在全美国扩张,每年能够产生令人瞩目的营收数字、极好的利润率和每家餐厅的高盈利能力。
这很难,老兄。而这就是你从 Cake Inc. 得到的东西。这就是你从 Cake Inc. 得到的东西。
And then there's North Italy, and to a lesser extent, but they'll be able to scale it up in distinct and different regions across the USA, right? That's an extraordinary opportunity by any measure.
You simply don't find anything like it. Two concepts You'll expand with them across the United States, and you'll be able to generate impressive revenue figures each year, excellent profit margins, and high profitability for every restaurant.
That's tough, man. And that's what you get with Cake Inc. That's what you get with Cake Inc.
此外,你还得到他们自己的提款机——The Cheesecake Factory,这是极少数无论经济状况如何都保持强劲的餐饮概念之一。不管是在衰退、经济好、经济差还是只是还行,Cheesecake Factory 总是能做出它的业绩。
他们总是很忙。他们是少数真正能做到这一点的,对吧?
Plus, you get their own ATM, The Cheesecake Factory, which is one of the very few restaurant concepts that remains strong regardless of the state of the economy. It doesn't matter if you're in a recession, a good economy, a bad economy, or just okay; Cheesecake Factory will always make its numbers.
They'll always be busy. They're one of the few who can actually do that, right?
所以,如果 Cheesecake Factory 陷入困境,那就意味着整个餐饮业都完了。我不知道还能说什么。他们是强者中的强者。
So, you know, if Cheesecake Factory is in trouble, it means the whole restaurant industry is finished. I don't know what else to say. They're the strongest of the strong.
我把他们和 Texas Road House 看作美国遥遥领先的两家最强餐饮运营商。就是 Texas Road House 和他们。所以如果 Texas Road House 或 Cheesecake Factory 出了问题,那就再见了。
整个餐饮业就完了。你作为餐饮经营者也不会有机会,不是吗?
I look at them and Texas Road House as the two strongest restaurant operators in the United States by a long way. It's Texas Road House and them. So if Texas Road House or Cheesecake Factory has trouble, goodbye.
That's the end of the whole restaurant industry. You won't have a chance as a restaurateur, will you?
这并不意味着 Cheesecake 会涨6,500%或27,000%。但这里的重点是,考虑到两者都只是一个概念,你能看到那些涨幅有多大。它极其成功。Cheesecake 有两个。
That doesn't mean Cheesecake will go up 6,500% or 27,000%. But the point here is, you can see how big those gains are when you consider that both were just one concept." It's incredibly successful. Cheesecake has two.
那么,他们有像 Starbucks 那样规模的东西吗?没有。所以这只股票不会涨27,000%,对吧?或者他们有像 Chipotle 那样规模的东西吗?我不这么认为。Flowerchild 极其成功,但我不认为它是一个6,500%的机会,对吧?
它更像是500%或1,000%的机会,这也很巨大,不是吗?
Now, do they have anything on the scale of what Starbucks was? No. That's why the stock isn't going to go up 27,000%, is it? Or do they have anything on the scale of Chipotle? I don't think so.
Florchild is incredibly successful, but I don't think it's a 6,500% opportunity, is it? It's more like a 500% or 1,000% opportunity, which is also huge, isn't it?
现在,如果你把 Cheesecake 和 Cava 比较,Cava 的市值是62.5亿美元。Cheesecake 是53.9亿美元,对吧?
Now, if you compare Cheesecake to Cava, Cava's market capitalization is $6.25 billion. Cheesecake is $5.39 billion, right?
但关键在于,与买入 Cava 股票相比,今天买入 Cheesecake Factory 股票能获得巨大的折价,对吧?
But the point here is, you get a huge discount buying Cheesecake Factory stock today compared to buying Cava stock, right?
而且过去几年 Cheesecake 一直是热门股票,而 Cava 基本停滞不前,不是吗?对吧?
And Cheesecake has been a hot stock for the past few years, while Cava has been pretty much stagnant, hasn't it? Right?
现在看看这个。Cake 股票的前瞻市盈率大约在23倍。
Now, look at this. You're getting a forward P/E ratio for Cake stock that's around 23.
但看看 Cake 的前瞻市盈率,是23倍,而 Cava 是54倍,对吧?所以,从市盈率看,Cake 未来的盈利能力不到 Cava 的一半,对吧?
But look at Cake's forward P/E ratio, it's 23 versus 54 for Cava, right? So, P/E Cake's future profitability is less than half that of Cava, right?
而且记住,Cake 是一家规模庞大、根基稳固、经营历史悠久的企业。如果不是这样,Cake 的整体增长率实际上会比表面上看起来快得多,对吧?
And remember, Cake has a large, established, and long-standing business. If it weren't for that, Cake's growth rates would actually be much faster overall than they appear on the surface, right?
所以,如果拿它和 Cava 这样的公司相比,你实际上是以极其便宜的折价买到 Cake,对吧?这只是为了让你看清,并让你意识到,Cake 即便在这里,尽管已经大幅上涨,实际上仍然处于显著的折价状态。
So, you're actually getting Cake at a crazy discount if you compare it to something like Cava, right? This is just to open your eyes and make you realize Cake, even here, despite its huge rise, is still actually at a significant discount.
这就是为什么你看不到我卖出 Cake 股票。我的意思是,我能在哪里公开卖出我的股票呢?我毫无兴趣。一点兴趣都没有。比如“哦,我要在公开账户上卖出我的股票。”不,谢谢。我挺好的。
因为与市场上的其他机会相比,我仍然是以折价买到这些股票,对吧?
That's why you don't see me selling Cake stock. I mean, where would I publicly sell my shares? I have no interest. Not a single one. Like, "Oh, I'll sell my shares on the public account."
No, thank you. I'm fine. Because I'm still getting those shares at a discount compared to other opportunities in the market, right?
这个频道对 $CAKE 的历次判断
Financial Education 在这只股票上共 9 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。