$CAT · Steve Miller · 2026-11-06
CAT在数据中心建设预期之后已下跌约48%；他认为这是买入候选，下行风险低于其他投机性买入。周线趋势向下，但底部很可能在数周内出现，或许在11月中旬，随后从约550强劲反弹至677阻力位。他并不声称底部已经到达；若未到达，则仍存在进一步下跌风险。
逐段跳播
Caterpillar的股票经历了非常剧烈的下跌。这发生在人工智能热潮的同时，因为市场预期该公司会参与数据中心的所有建设工作，其股票此前大幅上涨。
Caterpillar's stock has suffered a very sharp decline. This happened in conjunction with the artificial intelligence boom, as the stock rose sharply due to all the construction work they were supposed to be involved in at the data centers.
我认为这三只股票已经成熟，值得作为买入标的来考虑，而且它们的下行风险大概率低于你在买方可能选择投机的其他股票。
These are three stocks that I believe are ripe for consideration as buy deals, and their downside risks are probably lower than other stocks that you might choose to speculate on on the buy side.
这些股票已经大幅下跌，现在正处于我将展示给你的周期形态中，这表明它们可能很快就会触底并开始上涨。我们可能已经看到了这些股票最糟糕的下跌。
These stocks have fallen significantly and are now in cyclical patterns that I will show you, indicating that they may soon reach the bottom and begin to rise. We may have seen the worst decline in these stocks.
当我们看Caterpillar股票的周线图时，我把图放大给你看，我们看到它处于下跌趋势，而如果你看看这里的市场节奏，我们很可能在未来几周的某个时候触底。
When we look at Caterpillar stock on the weekly chart, I'll expand the picture for you, we see that it's trending downwards, and if you look at the market rhythms here, we're likely to hit a bottom somewhere in the next few weeks.
这只股票从这里的1073跌到了549。基本上，它在这段时间里损失了约48%的市值，而且我们知道6月是这个市场中许多股票的峰值，尤其是高市值科技和AI类股票，而Caterpillar由于有望凭借数据中心扩张实现出色业绩而与之相关联。
The stock has dropped from 1073 here to 549. Essentially, it has lost about 48% of its value during this period, and we know that June was the peak for many stocks in this market, especially in the high-market-capitalization technology and AI category, and Caterpillar is associated with it due to its potential for excellent performance based on the expansion of data centers.
这种情况可能仍在发生，而且基调很容易改变，一旦我们开始看到民主党人说：“好，我们要建这些数据中心。”我们对此只会稍微更谨慎一些。然后你就会开始看到这些股票回升。
This may still be happening, and the tone could easily change as we start to see Democrats saying, "Okay, we're going to build these data centers." We'll just be a little more careful about that.
And then you will start to see these stocks recover.
所以，如果我们是在寻找一个底部出现，看起来它可能会在11月中旬这里发生。这将与这里出现强劲反弹的可能性相符，你可能会从某个水平获得反弹，从550这里往上。那个阻力位是我最低的阻力位677。
所以你可以看到，一旦这个底部确立，这里可能会出现一次非常大的反弹。
So if we are looking for a bottom to occur, it looks like it might happen here in mid-November. This would be consistent with the likelihood of a strong bounce here, and you might get a bounce from some level, you know, from 550 up here.
That resistance is my lowest resistance level at 677. So you can see that there could be a very large bounce here once this bottom is established.
我还没有理由说底部已经到来；如果底部还没到，时间节奏告诉我仍然存在下跌风险。这个箭头应该放进观察名单。你要找的是这里的改善，以及即将出现好转的迹象。
I have no reason to say that the bottom has been reached yet, and if it hasn't, the timing tells me that there is still a risk of a decline. This arrow should be placed on the watch list.
What you are looking for is an improvement here and a sign that you are going to have a turn for the better.
这个频道对 $CAT 的历次判断
Steve Miller 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。