$CAT · David Lin · 2026-11-06
Caterpillar 已下跌约 50%，在 400 多美元的价位上，AI 电力涡轮机交易已被完全排除在定价之外；按十几倍的远期市盈率看它并不算特别便宜，而且其中部分盈利（E）可能下滑，但即便如此，在 400 多美元仍是买入——不过，一次令标普下跌 10% 的调整可能把它打到比他预想的更低的价位。
逐段跳播
听着，比如 Caterpillar 跌了大约50%。它可能是世界上最好的公司之一。我认为在400多美元的价位，你已经完全把整个 AI 交易定价出去了。你知道，这只股票市值的50%是因为他们要建造动力涡轮机来帮助新建项目和数据中心。
我认为这部分现在已经完全从股价中剔除了，但它可以跌破其基本面价值。你知道，它并不是特别便宜。它现在的远期市盈率是十几倍。其中一些 E 可能会下降，但即使 E 下降，在400多美元的价位，它也是买入。
但你猜怎么着？如果我们进入调整，标普500指数从当前水平下跌10%，它可能会跌得比我预期的更低。
listen, like Caterpillar, uh, is down like 50%. It's probably one of the best companies in the world. Um, I think in the 400s, you've completely priced out, you know, the whole AI trade.
You know, 50 50% of this market cap was because they were going to, you know, build power turbines to help uh, new builds uh, and data centers. And I think that's completely now out of the stock, but it can sell below its fundamental value.
You know, it's not super cheap. It's now trading at a teens forward multiple. Uh some of that E might come come lower, but even if the E comes lower, you in the 400s, it's a buy.
But guess what? If we enter a correction, the S&P is down 10% from here, it could go it could go lower than I think it can go.
你还看到像 Caterpillar 这样的公司，它们为许多这类数据中心建造涡轮机，也出现了抛售。
And you've also seen companies like Caterpillar which were building uh turbines for a lot of these data data center selloff.