$CAT · Steve Miller · 2026-11-08
随着数据中心建设增长消退，CAT已下跌约48%，从1073跌至549。周线节奏指向底部可能在数周内出现，或许在11月中旬，并可能大幅反弹至677阻力位。说话者没有理由说底部已经形成，因此回调风险仍然存在；需等待两小时图出现改善信号。
逐段跳播
我们将看看 CAT、WIN 和百度这几只股票。Caterpillar 的股票遭受了彻底而沉重的打击。这与人工智能有关，因为此前它们将参与数据中心的建设，从而经历了一波增长激增。我们知道，现在这方面出现了显著下滑。
We will look at CAT, WIN and Baidu stocks. Caterpillar's stock has taken a complete and utterly crushing blow . This is related to artificial intelligence because they experienced a surge in growth due to all the construction work they were going to be involved in at the data centers.
We know that there is a significant decline in that now.
我们先来看看 Caterpillar。这是给刚接触这个领域的人看的 Caterpillar 图表。这是一次周期性分析。我们现在做的是把市场节奏叠加到我们自己的分析之上，市场节奏就是底部的一个简单绘图工具。
我们要寻找的是市场动能，也就是这里的“反转检测器”，它告诉我们动能的情况，你可以看到它曾尝试反弹，但又转为负值。当它在这里转为负值时，就是周线图上的顶部信号。这是日线图，上面还有“反转聚光灯”、“Slim Ribbon”细带、这里的“Slim Ribbon PO”指标，以及这里的期权偏向指标。
所以，当我们看 Caterpillar 的周线图时，我会为你展开讲，我们看到的是它正在向下走，而如果你看这里的这些市场节奏，未来几周内很可能出现一个底部。这只股票从这里的 1073 跌到了 549。
所以它在这段时间里基本上损失了约 48% 的价值，我们知道 6 月是这个市场上许多股票的峰值，尤其是大市值科技和 AI 类股票。Caterpillar 与之相关，是因为有潜力表明，基于数据中心的建设，它会有异常出色的表现。
这仍然有可能，而且基调很容易改变，一旦我们开始看到民主党人说：好，我们要建这些数据中心。我们只是会对此稍微谨慎一点。然后你就会开始看到这些股票回升。所以你可以看到这里底部的时机窗口。
现在当我接着看日线图时，你可以看到这里发生了什么，就是动能是负的，正如你在这里看到的。看看这里的这些信号。这是“Slim Ribbon PO”指标，它给你这些关于下行动能恢复的信号，你可以看到那有多棒。
这是一个四级指标。这里是期权偏向指标在告诉你，在这些期权头寸上保持偏卖方。这里有过轻微波动，然后又转为负值，现在从 10 月中旬一直到 11 月，它一直在说保持你的头寸在卖方。
那太棒了。所以如果我们寻找底部，看起来它可能会在 11 月中旬出现。这里会有一个相关性，即出现一次像样反弹的可能性，你可能会从某个位置获得反弹，你知道，从这里的 550 往下。
这个阻力位是我最低的阻力位，在 677。所以你看，一旦这个底部确立，这里可能会有一次非常大的反弹。我没有理由说底部已经形成，如果还没有形成，时机告诉我仍然存在回调的风险。这应该被放到雷达上。
你要寻找的是这里的改善，以及出现向上转折的迹象。现在，我要给你看一些已经出现向上转折的股票，这才是重要的。这样你就不会像他们说的那样，过早地去接“落下的刀子”而受伤。所以，这只是提醒你要监控改善的迹象。
你可能会在这里的 Slim Ribbon PO 指标或反转检测工具上得到第一个信号，然后你得到改善的迹象。你可能会在两小时图上得到这个信号。现在，市场状况监控器可以帮你做到这一点，甚至可以在两小时图转正时收到通知。
好了，这就是对 Caterpillar 的观察。
Let's take a look at Caterpillar first. Here are Caterpillar diagrams for those new to this field. This is a periodic analysis . What we are doing now is overlaying market rhythms, which is simply a drawing tool at the bottom, on top of our own analysis.
What we are looking for is market momentum, and that is the " reversal detector" here, which tells us about momentum that you can see has attempted a bounce but has turned negative again.
When it turned negative here, it was a signal of the top on the weekly chart. This is the daily chart which also contains the " Reversal Spotlight", the "Slim Ribbon" thin bar, the "Slim Ribbon PO" indicator here, and the Options Bias indicator here.
So when we look at Caterpillar on the weekly chart, and I'll expand on that for you, what we see is that it's moving downwards, and if you look at these rhythms in the market here, there's likely to be a bottom within the next few weeks.
The stock has dropped from 1073 here to 549. So it has essentially lost about 48% of its value during this period, and we know that June was the peak for many stocks in this market, especially in the high-market-cap technology and AI category.
Caterpillar is associated with it because of the potential that indicated it would perform exceptionally well based on the construction of data centers. This is still possible, and the tone could easily change as we start to see Democrats saying: Okay, we're going to build these data centers.
We'll just be a little more careful about that. And then you will start to see these stocks recover . So you can see the timing window for the bottom here. Now when I move on to looking at the daily chart, you can see what happened here, which is that the momentum is negative, as you can see here .
Look at these signs here. This is the "Slim Ribbon PO" indicator, and it gives you these signals about the resumption of downward momentum, and you can see how great that is. This is a level four indicator.
This is where the options bias indicator was telling you to maintain your bias towards the sell side in these options positions. There was a slight fluctuation here and then it went negative again, and now all the way from mid-October to November it was saying keep your positions on the sell side.
That was wonderful. So if we're looking for a bottom, it looks like it might happen here in mid-November. There will be a correlation here with the likelihood of a good- sized bounce, and you might get a bounce from some level , you know, from 550 down here.
This resistance is my lowest resistance level at 677. So you see, there could be a very large bounce here once this bottom is established. I have no reason to say that the bottom has yet been formed, and if it hasn't, the timing tells me that there is still a risk of a pullback.
This should be put on the radar. What you're looking for are improvements here and a sign that you're getting an upward turnaround. Now, I'm going to show you some stocks that have already given you an upward turnaround, which is the important thing.
So that you don't, as they say, pick up the " fallen knife" and get hurt too early. So, this is just a reminder to monitor for signs of improvement. You might get the first signal here on the Slim Ribbon PO indicator or the reversal detector tool here, and then you get a sign of improvement.
You might get that on a two- hour chart. Now, a market conditions monitor can help you with that, and even receive notifications when the two-hour chart turns positive. Well, that was a look at Caterpillar.
这个频道对 $CAT 的历次判断
Steve Miller 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。