$CAT · Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. · 2026-11-08
Caterpillar 具有投机性且估值昂贵：当前业绩良好、数据中心需求旺盛，市盈率为 24，全周期约为 35。它的周期性极强；如果未来五年周期走弱，盈利可能降至 20 亿美元，市值可能跌至 1000 亿美元或更低。
逐段跳播
Caterpillar。它已经在AI泡沫里待了一段时间。现在它略有下跌，但市盈率仍然是24。是的，财务业绩看起来不错。一切都在增长，销售在上升，在能源和电力领域，大家都很高兴。
我们讨论过另一家发电机公司，但大家都说数据中心往往依赖 Caterpillar。建筑业务不错，可能会稍微企稳，然后是采矿，有大量投资，黄金在上涨，诸如此类。这些就是那里推动一切的业务。
更高的指引、更高的利润率，一切听起来都很棒，但看看这张 Caterpillar 的40年走势图。这些是现在的收入，目前略高一些，但我们在2012年初就到过那里，然后当一切改变时它们大幅下跌，起起落落。
所以它的周期性极强，如果周期走弱，他们就赚不到钱。是的，他们现在能赚110或120亿，但那仍然是24倍的市盈率。当他们只赚20亿、世界看起来非常糟糕时，市值会降到1000亿或更低。
这就是风险。未来五年这是一个非常大的风险。所以，目前它是一只投机性股票，就像其他股票曾经那样，也像许多股票现在仍然那样，尤其是因为这个视频重点讲它。就这些。感谢你们的建议。我已经知道这个视频里要说什么了，因为当你比较事物时，当我看我的矩阵时，我会把 Caterpillar 放在哪里？
整个周期的市盈率是35倍，所以假设他们平均赚80亿。80亿。考虑到价格，我们到了这里。我们和市场上存在的一批昂贵公司处在同一位置。
Caterpillar. This has been in the AI bubble for a while now. It has now declined slightly, but the price-to-earnings ratio is still 24. Yes, the financial results look good. Everything is growing, sales are rising, and everyone is happy, in the energy and electricity sectors .
We discussed another generator, but everyone says that data centers often rely on Caterpillar . Good construction is likely to stabilize a bit , then mining, there's a lot of investment, gold is rising, and things like that .
Those are the courses there that drive everything. Higher guidance, higher profit margins, everything sounds great, but look at this 40-year chart of Caterpillar. These are the revenues now, slightly higher at the moment, but we were there in early 2012 and then they dropped significantly when everything changed, ups and downs.
So it's insanely cyclical, and if the cycle falters, they don't make any money. Yes, they'll make 11 or 12 billion now, but that's still a price-to-earnings ratio of 24. When they make $2 billion, and when the world looks really ugly, the market capitalization will be 100 billion or less.
That's the risk. It's a very big risk over the next five years. So, at the moment, it is a speculative stock just like other stocks were , and like many still are, especially since this video focuses on it.
That's all. Thank you for your suggestions. I already knew what I was going to say in this video, because when you compare things, and when I look at my matrix, where would I put Caterpillar?
The price-to-earnings ratio is 35 across the cycle, so let's say they make 8 billion on average. 8 billion. Considering the price, we arrive here. We are here with a group of expensive companies that exist in the market.