CCL 值得买入；强劲的预订量和去杠杆将推动股价上行，公允价值有望超过 43 美元，而当前股价为 26 美元。
逐段跳播
Carnival Cruise Line 公布的季度财务业绩好于投资者的预期。此外，管理团队表示，2027 年运力的一半已经售出，展望 2028 年，这一年开局也很好，入住率和价格都高于公司的预期。
Carnival Cruise Line announced quarterly financial results that were better than investors had expected. Furthermore, the management team stated that half of the 2027 capacity has already been sold, and looking ahead to 2028, this year has also started off great, with occupancy rates and prices higher than the company had anticipated.
因此，自经济重启以来，Carnival Cruise Line 的情况一直很好，因为人们在弥补疫情封锁期间错过的旅行时光。
So, things have been great for Carnival Cruise Line since the economic reopening, as people make up for lost travel time during the pandemic lockdowns.
当然，这也是促使我将这只股票列为绝佳买入机会的原因之一。因此，我很高兴看到 Carnival 超出预期，股价上涨。
Of course, this was one of the reasons that led me to highlight this stock as an excellent buying opportunity. Therefore , I am pleased to see Carnival exceeding expectations and the stock price rising .
不过，尽管我仍然认为这是一个买入机会，我还是想重新评估这项业务，考虑这些近期业绩，并将其与估值进行比较，以判断现在将这家优秀的企业加入你的投资组合是否为时已晚。
But although I still believe it is a buying opportunity, I wanted to reassess the business, consider these recent results, and compare them to the valuation to determine whether it was too late to add this excellent business to your investment portfolio.
所以，你可以看到第三季度公布的业绩数据与管理团队的预期对比。公司在几乎所有重要指标上都超出了预期，包括营收、调整后 EBITDA、净利润和每股收益。
So , you can see the announced figures for the third quarter versus what the management team had anticipated. The company exceeded expectations in almost every important metric, including revenue, adjusted EBITDA, net income, and earnings per share.
这一增长背后的驱动力在很大程度上是为了补偿人们错过的旅行时光。他们愿意支付更高的价格，因为可用名额有限，也因为企业已经提高了价格。
The driving force behind this growth is largely to compensate people for lost travel time. They are willing to pay higher prices because available spaces are limited and because companies have raised prices.
因此，Carnival 正在经历更高的船上消费、创纪录的入住率，以及未来旅行时段的客户订金同比增长约 7%（与去年第三季度相比）。
Therefore, Carnival is experiencing higher onboard spending, record occupancy rates, and customer deposits for future travel periods up by about 7% compared to the third quarter of last year.
因此，这些业绩给了管理团队信心，上调全年利润率和盈利预测，尽管他们支付着高得多的燃油价格，这一直是 Carnival 的一大劣势。
Therefore, these results gave the management team the confidence to raise their profit margins and earnings forecasts for the full year , even though they are paying much higher fuel prices, which has been a major disadvantage for Carnival.
他们随后预计净回报率将上升 2.7% 这一基准水平，而仅仅 3 个月前还是 2.25%。2027 年的一半已经预订出去，预订量（即入住率）和每单位入住的价格都高于以往任何时候。
They then projected net returns to rise by a benchmark 2.7%, compared to 2.25% just 3 months prior. Half of 2027 is already booked , and the number of bookings, i.e., occupancy rates, and price per occupancy are higher than ever.
此外，2028 年再次开局极佳，入住率高于预期，价格也高于以往任何时候。管理团队大约每 3 或 6 个月就上调一次价格，价格持续上涨，而客户仍在继续买单。
In addition, 2028 started off excellently again with higher than expected occupancy rates and higher prices than ever before. The management team has been increasing prices approximately every 3 or 6 months, and prices are constantly rising while customers continue to pay.
现在，我觉得 Carnival 有意思的地方在于他们如何处理现金流。他们有很多机会。他们做的事情之一是大举回购股票，自年初以来回购了价值 12 亿美元的股票，2026 年他们回购了 4500 万股。
Now, what I found interesting about Carnival is what they do with their cash flow. They have many opportunities . One of the things they do is buy back a lot of shares , worth $1.2 billion since the beginning of the year, and 45 million shares in 2026 they bought back.
他们还做的一件事是偿还了很大一部分债务。值得注意的是，公司在疫情期间的封锁阶段被迫停止运营。他们当时亏损数十亿美元。他们出于绝望不得不借款。
What they also did was pay off a large portion of the debts. It is worth noting that the company was forced to halt its operations during the lockdown phases of the pandemic. They were losing billions of dollars. They needed to borrow out of desperation.
因此，由于贷款机构担心向一家完全停业的公司放贷的风险，他们要求以远高于通常水平的利率向 Carnival Cruise 放贷。
Therefore, because of the lenders' fear of the risks of lending to a company that was completely out of business, they demanded much higher than usual interest rates to lend to Carnival Cruise.
当时，在疫情爆发之前，Carnival 约有 100 亿美元的债务。疫情期间，Carnival 又增加了 200 亿美元的债务，使其总债务达到约 300 亿美元。
At that time, before the pandemic hit, Carnival had about $10 billion in debt. During the pandemic, Carnival added another $20 billion in debt, bringing its total debt to approximately $30 billion.
他们在疫情期间增加的这额外 200 亿美元债务是出于绝望。因此，他们被施加了极高的利率。
This additional $20 billion in debt that they added during the pandemic was driven by desperation. Therefore, extremely high interest rates were imposed on them .
既然他们现在产生了大量现金流，他们正将其中一部分用于回购股票，另一部分用于偿还债务。他们已经偿还了近50亿美元甚至更多的高息债务，我相信随着我们向前推进、他们获得更多流动性，管理层会继续这样做。
Now that they are generating large cash flows, they are using part of it to repurchase shares and another part to pay off debts. They have already paid off nearly five billion dollars or more of high-interest debt, and I believe management will continue to do so as we progress and they achieve more liquidity,
因此我更新了对 Carnival 公允价值的估算。我计算出公允价值超过43美元。当前市场价格为26美元。所以，我仍然认为 Carnival Cruise Line 在这里有巨大的上行潜力。
so I have updated my estimate of Carnival's fair value. I calculated a fair value of over $43. The current market price is $26. So, I still see great upside potential here for Carnival Cruise Line.
我曾表示，我将这只股票评为买入机会，而今天，在评估了公司的季度财务业绩之后，我重申这一评级。
I have stated that I have rated this stock as a buy opportunity, and today, after evaluating the company’s quarterly financial results, I reaffirm this rating.
这个频道对 $CCL 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。