CEG 在 300 美元被低估，合理价值为 387 美元；尽管近期已上涨，预计 12-18 个月内仍有约 30% 上行空间，但信心较低。
逐段跳播
我们有关于Constellation Energy股东的好消息：谷歌的母公司Alphabet已同意签署一项价值43亿美元、为期20年的协议，从Constellation Energy购买能源。
We have great news for Constellation Energy shareholders: Alphabet, Google's parent company, has agreed to sign a $4.3 billion, 20-year deal to purchase energy from Constellation Energy.
当然，在此之前，该公司已经与Amazon和Microsoft签署了协议，以满足它们的能源需求。那么，这是否让Constellation Energy的股票成为一个买入机会？
Of course, this comes after the company has already signed deals with Amazon and Microsoft to support their energy needs. So, does this make Constellation Energy shares a buying opportunity?
让我们仔细看看这一公告的细节，然后再看该公司的估值，以判断它对投资者而言是否是一项有吸引力的长期投资。这笔交易的细节包括43亿美元，通过一项为期20年的购电协议提供890兆瓦的核电。
Let's take a closer look at the details of this announcement, and then look at the company's valuation to determine whether it is an attractive long-term investment for investors.
The details of the deal consisted of $4.3 billion to provide 890 megawatts of nuclear power through a 20-year power purchase agreement.
当然，这是利好消息，公告发布后CEG的股价上涨了超过12%。Constellation Energy表示，新增产能将来自现有站点的升级，因此他们无需为支持这项协议而新建站点。
Of course, this was positive news, and CEG's stock rose by more than 12% following the announcement. Constellation Energy stated that the new capacity will come from upgrades at existing sites, so they do not need to build a new site to support this agreement.
除了这座890兆瓦的核电站之外，谷歌和Constellation还就额外2.7吉瓦的产能达成了一项为期15年的电力供应协议。
In addition to the 890-megawatt nuclear power plant, Google and Constellation also agreed to a 15-year power supply deal for an additional 2.7 gigawatts of capacity.
正如我在1月份提到的，Amazon与Constellation Energy签署了一项核电协议，Microsoft则在2024年与该公司达成了一项为期20年的协议，根据该协议，到2028年，它将从Constellation位于Three Mile Island的一座此前已关闭的反应堆供电。
As I mentioned in January, Amazon signed a deal with Constellation Energy for nuclear power, and Microsoft entered into a 20-year agreement with the company in 2024, under which it will supply power from one of Constellation's previously closed reactors at Three Mile Island by 2028.
从今年年初到现在，Constellation Energy的股价表现不佳。即便在今天上涨超过12%之后，该股仍下跌了15%。
Since the beginning of the year until now, Constellation Energy's stock has not performed well. The stock is down 15% even after rising more than 12% today.
然而，从过去五年来看，该股涨幅巨大。它实现了超过691%的涨幅。因此，2026年出现小幅下跌是可以理解的。该股目前的远期市盈率为22.5，这正是该股自2024年以来按这一指标交易的平均估值。
However, looking at the past five years, the stock has risen tremendously. It has achieved an increase of over 691%. Therefore, a slight decline here in 2026 is understandable.
The stock is now trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22.5, which is the average valuation at which the stock has traded according to this metric since 2024.
基于这一消息，我也更新了对Constellation Energy的现金流折现计算，并得出每股387美元的公允价值估计。在今天大幅上涨之后，当前市场价格为300美元。
Based on this news, I have also updated my discounted cash flow calculations for Constellation Energy, and have arrived at a fair value estimate of $387 per share. The current market price after today's significant increase is $300.
对我而言，我看到Constellation Energy在未来十二到十八个月内有可能上涨约30%。因此，尽管过去五年股价快速上涨，我认为仍有上行机会。
For me, I see the potential for Constellation Energy to rise by about 30% over the next twelve to eighteen months. Therefore, despite the rapid rise in the stock price over the past five years, I believe there is still an upside opportunity.
这对像Constellation这样的能源供应商来说是好消息。针对我在视频开头提出的问题，我认为在当前这些价格下这是一个买入机会，尽管得益于这一消息该股上涨了12%。
This is good news for energy suppliers like Constellation. In response to the question I posed in the introduction to the video, I see this as a buying opportunity at these prices, despite the stock rising by 12% thanks to this news.
我仍然认为该股似乎被低估，但我对这一评级的信心水平相对较低；因为它们本质上提供的是大宗商品，我发现很难判断这些能源供应商中哪一家能脱颖而出。
I still think the stock appears to be undervalued, but my confidence level in this rating is relatively low; Because they are essentially providing a primary commodity, I find it difficult to determine which of these energy suppliers stands out from the others.
这个频道对 $CEG 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。