ChargePoint 仍被高估，尚不值得买入：DCF 合理价值为 5.29 美元，而现价为 8 美元，不过两者正逐渐接近。现金流盈亏平衡、营收增长以及美国以外电动车市场的预期增长令人鼓舞，但预计自由现金流（FCF）要到 2028 财年才能实现盈亏平衡，正向现金流则要到 2029 财年起才会出现。

Shares of ChargePoint, a company specializing in charging electric vehicles, are trading at around $8 per share. The stock rose 11% today. I must have made around 100 videos about this company warning investors against buying, and its stock has fallen by more than 98% over the past five years.

It is one of the worst-performing stocks in the market today.

So, I wanted to reassess ChargePoint and see if it was finally time to buy this stock. Remember that I have never rated this stock as a buy. Every time I made a video about this company over the past five years and more, and every time I wrote an article or spoke about this company, I warned investors about it because it simply didn't make sense at the time.

So I thought that maybe now, finally after all this, it might be a good time to buy a "ChargePoint".

Chargepoint has seen revenue growth over the past twelve months and in the last quarter, and management expects another quarter of revenue growth in the next quarter. Total revenue is $433 million.

This is less than a peak of around $550 million, but it represents an increase over the past twelve months.

The reason behind ChargePoint's declining revenue since 2023 is that they were losing too much money, and the unit economics for the business did not make sense. Therefore, the management team has since begun to focus on properly scaling the business and adjusting the unit's economics instead of focusing solely on growth ; Because if you are growing but every extra dollar makes you lose more money, what is the point of this expansion?

Finally, the management team decided to adjust the unit's economics, and the good news is that the management team stated in the last quarter that they had achieved a break-even point in the company's cash flow.

They did not lose money in that quarter in terms of cash flow.

It would be a great achievement if they could continue to do that time and time again, at least reaching the break-even point in terms of cash flow.

In this way, they will not need to go back to investors and ask for more money as they have done many times before, thus diluting shareholders' stakes in the process. You can see this improvement when you look at the cash flow chart from operations compared to sales, especially since 2023, can't you?

You can see the ratio of operating cash flow to sales over the past 12 months rising from -65% to -16 %.

In the last quarter ended , management stated that their cash consumption rate was essentially stable. This is even more important now because their cash flow on the balance sheet has diminished, hasn't it?

At one point, this company had over $600 million in cash and short- term investments.

Of course, if you remember the electric vehicle stock frenzy in 2020 and 2021, when almost every electric vehicle company's stock was soaring, ChargePoint took advantage of that. They sold the shares and raised capital.

And remember that was also when I started warning investors, saying, "Don't get too excited about these electric car stocks." I think they are exaggerating . I believe they are overvalued , and I think you should avoid these companies.

I have been saying this since 2020 and 2021, repeatedly warning investors that it did not make sense in terms of the expected cash flow that these companies would generate compared to their current valuations.

From that moment on, it is true that they possessed more than $600 million at one point. Now, their balance has dropped to just over $95 million in cash and short- term investments.

So, if they continue to burn through money at the rates they have historically burned through it, this liquidity will not last long. They will have to go back to investors and dilute their stakes further, adding more dilution to shareholder ownership.

But if they can at least maintain stable cash flow from operations until revenue growth accelerates and they start generating positive cash flow, I think that would be great news for investors, because they already have more than $227 million in long-term debt, which is equal to or even exceeds the company’s total market capitalization.

Because of their situation, when they go to borrow money, they will have to pay very high interest rates because their situation is not good. So, they turn to lenders out of a bit of desperation to borrow money , and lenders always charge higher interest rates when you are in such a situation.

But if they can hold on, if they can continue for another 12 or 24 months, and wait until the moment their business improves in terms of cash flow, profit margins, and so on, then they can approach lenders in a less desperate situation, obtain more attractive terms, and use that liquidity to fix some aspects of the business, right?

Refinancing some of the old debt with high interest rates. Perhaps making some crucial investments that they have been putting off in order to get their business on track.

So, a little over a year ago, the stock was trading at forward price-to-sales ratios of over 40, 50, 60, 30, and 20. Each time , I was warning investors that these were very high prices for ChargePoint given its prospects and valuation.

Currently , the stock is trading at a price-to- forward sales ratio of 0.42. This represents a small fraction of the valuation at which this stock has been trading for many years.

I can share with you a price chart over the past five years . ChargePoint's stock fell by more than 98%. It was one of the biggest disasters in the market . I hope you have watched my videos and avoided this work during this period.

So today I also updated my discounted cash flow calculations for ChargePoint. I believe this company will reach the breakeven point in its fiscal year 2028 in terms of free cash flow .

I believe this business will generate positive cash flow starting from fiscal year 2029 and will grow from that point onwards.

I think the electric vehicle industry is finally starting, at least outside the United States, to grow to a size sufficient to support companies like ChargePoint.

So far, I have calculated the fair value of ChargePoint at $5.29. The current market price is $8. Therefore, there is still an overvaluation here.

Even after applying the safety margin, ChargePoint stock, even after all this decline, still seems overvalued. It is getting closer to becoming more attractive in terms of ratings, but not yet.

So, I last warned investors about this company on June 15, and today I will repeat that. I still don't think this is a buying opportunity. He's getting close to that. The overall economic situation is improving. It's working in her favor, but not quite yet .