CLX 对长期投资者而言值得买入；公允价值 110 美元对比股价 81 美元，意味着 12-18 个月内有超过 34% 的上行空间，尽管利润率下滑，13 倍远期市盈率和超过 6% 的股息率提供支撑。
逐段跳播
像 Clorox 这样的消费必需品公司也面临类似的逆风。为此，他们采用的方法之一是从 Clorox 和 Procter & Gamble 等品牌产品转向自有品牌产品，比如 Kroger、Amazon Basics 等品牌，这些品牌与 Clorox 和 Procter & Gamble 等热门产品摆在一起销售。
Consumer staples companies like Clorox are facing similar headwinds. To do this, one of the methods they use is to switch from branded products such as Clorox and Procter & Gamble to store-branded products .
Such as the brands " Kroger", " Amazon Basics", and others that you see sold alongside popular products like "Clorox" and "Procter & Gamble".
另一方面，Clorox 与其他消费品公司一样，因通胀、乌克兰战争和关税而面临更高的投入成本。因此，他们正面临双重打击，对其业务造成显著的负面影响。
On the other hand, Clorox, like other consumer goods companies, is facing higher input costs due to inflation, the war in Ukraine, and tariffs. Therefore, they are facing a double blow that negatively impacts their business significantly.
因此，看到 Clorox 股价今年以及过去十二个月下跌，我并不感到意外。但在这些短期逆风之下，现在是买入 Clorox 股票的好时机吗？
Therefore, it is not surprising to me to see Clorox stock down this year and over the past twelve months. But is this a good time to buy Clorox stock amid these short-term headwinds ?
除了这些近期动态之外，Clorox 还在继续应对疫情带来的前所未有的局面。要知道，其业务在疫情期间确实蓬勃发展，销售额跃升至 75 亿。
In addition to these recent developments, Clorox continues to deal with the unprecedented circumstances of the pandemic . Remember that its business really boomed during the pandemic, with sales jumping to 7.5 billion.
但我要说，Clorox 并不是那些出色应对疫情的公司之一。有些公司没有很好地应对疫情，犯了一些错误，或者无法有效应对需求增长。Clorox 就是其中之一。它并没有犯下任何严重错误，对吧？
But I will say that Clorox was not one of the companies that handled the pandemic brilliantly. There were some companies that did not handle the pandemic well, made some mistakes, or were unable to deal with increased demand effectively.
Clorox was one of them . You didn't make any serious mistakes, did you?
Clorox 并没有那么糟，但它确实没有同样有效地应对需求增长。它要么无法应对，要么其供应链没有准备好应对供应需求的增长。它们的供应链缺乏足够的灵活性，无法以具有成本效益的方式满足不断增长的需求。
Clorox wasn't that bad, but it simply didn't handle the increased demand as effectively. It was either unable, or its supply chains were not prepared to handle that increase in supply.
They did not have sufficient flexibility in their supply chain to meet the growing demand cost-effectively.
此后，其政策的结果也并不有效，因为为了应对那些短期需求增长，它们签订了一些合同来购买过剩的供应。因此，在经济重新开放之后，它们当时以及现在都仍在应对这些影响。
Following that, the results were not effective policies either, because in order to cope with those short- term increases in demand, they entered into some contracts to buy surplus supplies.
And so they were and still are dealing with those effects after the economy reopened.
现在，它们正应对一个更为重大的整体逆风，就像我在视频开头提到的那样。所以，Clorox 经历了几年的艰难处境。
Now, they are dealing with a much more significant overall headwind, such as the one I mentioned in the introduction to the video. So, Clorox has gone through a few years of difficult circumstances.
结果，我看到它们的利润率几乎崩塌，对吧？在疫情高峰期，Clorox 实现了 23% 的营业利润率。这一利润率如今已降至 9%。
As a result , I saw their profit margins almost collapse, didn't I? At the height of the pandemic, Clorox achieved an operating profit margin of 23%. This margin has now dropped to 9%.
所以，它们的营业利润率出现了显著下降，而这很可能在未来十二个月持续下去。也许在那之后，业务会适应，公司能够提高效率。通胀率可能会放缓。我不认为价格水平会下降，但至少它们不会像近几年那样快速上涨。
So, there is a significant decline in their operating profit margin, and this is likely to continue over the next twelve months. Perhaps after that, the business will adapt , and the company can improve efficiency.
The inflation rate may moderate. I do n't think price levels will decrease, but at least they won't increase as rapidly as they have in recent years.
公司的投入资本回报率也在下降，但仍高于加权平均资本成本，这对投资者来说是一个好迹象，可以确信即便在四到五年极其艰难的宏观经济环境下，公司仍能实现约 10% 的营业利润率，并继续产生超过公司加权平均资本成本的投入资本回报。
The company’s returns on invested capital are also declining, but they remain above the weighted average cost of capital, which is a good sign for investors to be assured that even under four to five years of extremely difficult macroeconomic conditions, the company is still achieving operating profit margins of around 10% and continues to generate returns on invested capital that exceed the company’s weighted average cost of capital.
当你考虑长期投资一家公司时，你会想看看这家公司如何应对艰难处境。当你看到管理团队有效应对艰难处境时，你会更安心。现在，我不能说 Clorox 在应对这些艰难处境方面做得非常出色，但它做得还算合理。
它们没有失足。它们没有犯下带有长期负面副作用的严重错误。
When you think about investing in a company for the long term , you want to see how that company handles difficult circumstances. You can feel more at ease when you see the management team handling difficult circumstances effectively.
Now, I can't say that Clorox did an excellent job in dealing with these difficult circumstances, but it did a reasonable job . They did not stumble. They did not make serious mistakes with long-term negative side effects .
当然，如果你关注 Clorox 股票，你很可能被股息所吸引，过去十二个月股息率超过 6%。因此，即便股价在未来十二个月保持稳定，你仍将获得超过 6% 的良好股息收益率。
Of course, if you're looking at Clorox stock, you're probably attracted to the dividends, which have been more than 6% over the past twelve months. Therefore, even if the share price remains stable over the next twelve months, you will still receive a good dividend yield exceeding 6%.
但我实际上认为股价可能会在多年内加速上涨，而且我认为每股股息还有进一步增加的空间。吸引力不仅限于股息派发；估值也很有吸引力。按预期市盈率衡量，Clorox 股票的估值为 13，从未如此便宜。
But I actually think the share price may accelerate over many years, and I think the dividend per share has room to increase further. The appeal is not limited to dividend payouts; the valuation is also attractive.
When measured on a forward price-to-earnings basis , Clorox stock has never been cheaper at 13.
此外，今天我更新了对 Clorox 的现金流折现估值。评估结果呈下降趋势。公司的表现不如我 3 或 6 个月前预期的那样强劲。经营状况恶化，而公司本身并无任何具体过错。整体经济状况在 2025 年和 2026 年全年持续恶化。
因此，我下调了对公司的预期，并上调了对相关风险的估计。
Furthermore, today I updated my discounted cash flow valuation for Clorox. The reviews were trending downwards. The company's performance is not as strong as I expected 3 or 6 months ago.
Working conditions deteriorated without any specific fault on the part of the company itself. The overall economic conditions continued to deteriorate throughout 2025 and 2026.
Therefore, I lowered the company's expectations and raised my estimates of the associated risks.
即便在这些估算之后，我计算出的该股合理价值为110，而其当前市场价格为81。我仍然认为Clorox在未来12至18个月内有超过34%的上涨空间。
Even after these estimates, I calculate the fair value of the stock to be 110 compared to its current market price of 81. I still see potential for gains exceeding 34 % over the next 12 to 18 months for Clorox.
对于我在标题中提出的问题，答案是肯定的，我认为这对长期投资者、持有分红股的投资者、追求被动收入的投资者以及所有投资者而言都是一个买入机会。这里的风险回报比令我印象深刻。
In answer to the question I posed in the title, yes, I see it as a buying opportunity for long-term investors, dividend- paying stock investors , passive income seekers, and all investors in general.
I am impressed with the risk-to- reward ratio here,
这个频道对 $CLX 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。