CLX 值得买入;软件转型带来的逆风已经结束,收购 Gojo 带来协同效应,超过 6% 的股息率具备价值。
逐段跳播
好,我们直接来看第二支吓人的箭头。如果你觉得 Alexandria 那张图已经够血腥了,那就等着看看这支曾经备受喜爱的经典消费股发生了什么。它就是 Clorox,交易代码 CLX,一只我在股价大幅崩盘后一直在买入的股息怪兽。
Okay, let's move directly to the second scary arrow. Oh, if you thought the Alexandria chart was bloody, wait until you see what happened to this once-loved classic consumer stock.
It's Clorox, trading symbol CLX, a dividend monster I was collecting after a massive price crash.
大多数人想到 Clorox,立刻想到的就是那瓶标志性的白蓝配色漂白剂或漂白粉,它很可能就放在你浴室的柜子里、清洁用品柜里,或者你放这类东西的地方,也许是洗衣房。但这家公司远不止于此。
我们说的是一大堆家居品牌的帝国,其中包括 Pine-Sol、Liquid Plumper、Glade 垃圾袋、FreshStep 猫砂、Hidden Valley Ranch、Brita 滤水器、非常知名的 Bert's Bees 品牌、Kingsford 木炭等等。
我的意思是,这些品牌是普通人甚至企业会不断囤货、几乎不会多想的东西。
When most people think of Clorox, they immediately think of that iconic white and blue bottle of bleach or powder that probably sits in your bathroom cabinet, cleaning cupboard, or wherever you keep that sort of thing, maybe the laundry room.
But this company is much bigger than that. We are talking here about an empire of household brands, which includes, for example, Pine-Sol, Liquid Plumper, Glade trash bags, FreshStep cat litter, Hidden Valley Ranch, Brita water filters, the very well-known Bert's Bees brand, Kingsford charcoal, and many more.
I mean, these are brands that ordinary people and even companies constantly stock up on without almost giving them a second thought.
事实上,他们总营收中约 80% 来自在各自品类中排名第一或第二的品牌。这非常庞大,极其庞大。当你拥有这种对货架空间的统治力时,你也就拥有了一条巨大的竞争护城河,在营收和净利润方面持续产生巨额利润。
In fact, about 80% of their total revenue comes from brands that rank first or second in their respective categories. This is huge, enormous. When you have this kind of dominance over shelf space, you also have a huge competitive trench that consistently generates huge profits in terms of revenue and net income.
然而,尽管拥有一些全球最受信赖、最赚钱的品牌,这只股票的走势图看起来却像万圣节之夜的噩梦。事实上,Clorox 目前正经历我在这只股票上见过的最严重的崩盘。自见顶以来,该股已累计蒸发约 70% 的总市值。这基本上抹去了十多年来的全部涨幅。有点疯狂。
However, despite owning some of the most trusted and profitable brands on the planet, the stock chart looks like a Halloween night nightmare. In fact, Clorox is currently experiencing the biggest collapse I have ever seen for this stock.
The stock has now lost about 70% of its total value since reaching its peak. This essentially erases all the gains made over more than a decade. It's kind of crazy.
那么,还有什么让投资者对这只股票如此恐惧?和 Alexandria 一样,Clorox 当时也在应对一场严重疫情的影响,需求突然回归正常,而历史性的通胀又让制造、运输以及树脂和石油等原材料成本飞涨。
随后,在它试图从中恢复的过程中,公司还遭遇了一次大规模网络攻击。这发生在 2023 年底。它暂时扰乱了他们的订购系统,并摧毁了他们运营的势头。
So, what else makes investors so terrified of this name? Well, like Alexandria, Clorox was also dealing with the effects of a severe pandemic, where high demand suddenly returned to normal while historic inflation sent manufacturing, transportation and raw material costs such as resin and oil skyrocketing.
Then, in the midst of its attempt to recover from that, the company was also subjected to a massive cyberattack. This happened in late 2023. It temporarily disrupted their ordering system and destroyed the momentum of their operations.
而现在,除此之外,他们还正处于一项为期五年、耗资 5.8 亿美元的全企业软件系统改造之中,这一过渡实际上迫使零售商囤积库存,随后又不得不大幅削减库存,造成出货量的人为下滑,严重损害了他们去年的利润。
And now, on top of that, they were in the middle of a five-year, $580 million overhaul of the entire enterprise software system, a transition that effectively forced retailers to stockpile inventory and then have to drastically reduce it, creating an artificial drop in shipments that severely damaged their profits last year.
所以,当你把销售的暂时下滑、利润率收缩,甚至当前的消费环境结合起来看——说实话,我们看到人们现在真的开始收紧预算或钱包,更加关注自己花出去的每一美元。嗯,因为这一切,也因为整体环境并不好,华尔街真的决定放弃这只股票了。
So, when you combine a temporary drop in sales, shrinking margins, and even the current consumer environment in which—let's be honest—we see people really starting to tighten their budgets or wallets, paying more attention to every dollar they spend now.
Well, because of all this, and because the overall conditions aren't great, Wall Street really decided to give up on this stock.
然而,对于像我这样以前从未投资过这只股票的人来说,我现在在低价时看到了一个不错的买入机会。首先,大规模的软件改造终于完成,沉重的支出已经过去。随着他们度过那些库存干扰,我相信这些逆风实际上会转变为支持他们销售和利润增长的顺风,这一点我们可以直接从分析师对未来几年的预测中看到。
However, for someone like me who has never invested in this stock before, I now see a good buying opportunity when the price is low. First, the massive software overhaul is finally complete, and the heavy spending is behind them.
As they get through those inventory disruptions, I believe those headwinds will actually turn into supportive winds for their sales and profit growth, which we can see directly in analysts' forecasts for the coming years.
同样重要的是,新收购 Purell 的制造商 Gojo Industries,意味着 Clorox 现在将巩固其作为全球商用消毒与卫生行业无可争议领导者的地位,有许多协同效应可以利用,因为所有这些产品和品牌都可以非常成功地一起销售,而且他们已经拥有必要的分销渠道和关系。
我认为协同效应将是巨大的。事实上,管理层现在预计,由于这笔收购,明年销售和利润都将实现两位数增长。即使没有这笔收购,公司也会经历温和增长。所以,即使从基本业务角度看,公司也已经开始了复苏。
Equally important, the new acquisition of Gojo Industries, the maker of Purell, means that Clorox will now cement its position as the undisputed leader in the global commercial sterilization and hygiene industry, with many synergies to be leveraged, as all these products and brands can be sold together very successfully, and they already have the necessary distribution channels and relationships.
I think the synergies will be enormous. In fact, management now expects double-digit growth in both sales and profits next year as a result of this acquisition. Even without this acquisition, the company would have experienced modest growth as well.
So, even from a basic business perspective, the company had already begun to recover.
由于股价崩盘,我现在可以以低于行业水平的折价买入股票,股息率也已升至我在这家公司从未见过的水平。目前超过 6%,甚至高于大衰退时期的水平,而且最棒的是,它已经连续增长了近五十年。
这意味着 Clorox 即将很快成为一只“股息之王”,一旦达到五十年这个门槛,只要它继续增长,很快就会实现。
Because of the price collapse, I can now buy shares at a discount to the sector level, and the dividend yield has risen to levels I have never seen before in this company. It is currently above 6%, which is even higher than it was during the Great Recession, and best of all, it has been growing for almost five consecutive decades.
This means that Clorox is on the verge of becoming a "dividend king" very soon, once it reaches the five-decade mark, which it will achieve soon assuming it continues to grow.
现在说到风险,这其中存在风险,因为这笔新收购产生了额外债务来为交易融资,这可能会引发一些对股息支付的担忧。但就我个人而言,我不这么认为。我更担心当前经济的不稳定状态。整体层面任何显著下滑都可能自然导致消费者转向更便宜的替代产品。
但对我来说,我认为在如此低的水平上,风险已经被消化了。
Now, speaking of risks, there are risks associated with this, as the new acquisition has resulted in additional debt to finance the deal, which may raise some concerns about dividend payouts.
But personally, I don't think so. I am more concerned about the current volatile state of the economy. Any significant decline at the overall level could naturally lead to consumers turning to cheaper alternative products.
But for me, I think the risks at these very low levels have already been factored in.
我相信我在这家公司身上承担的风险是值得的,如果 Clorox 能在长期内稍微恢复,我就已经锁定了巨额股息回报,这是投资者在往年只要拿到一半就会很高兴的东西。所以,你怎么看随你,但对我来说,我认为值得少量买入并跟踪结果。
I believe the risk I'm taking with this company is worthwhile, and if Clorox manages to recover a little in the long run, I will have already secured a huge dividend payout, something investors would have been happy to receive only half of in previous years.
So, take it as you wish, but for me, I think it’s worth buying in small quantities and monitoring the results.
这个频道对 $CLX 的历次判断
Ale's World of Stocks 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。