重申Clorox为买入：股价87美元，对比基于略微下调现金流估算得出的100美元估值，以及14.25倍远期市盈率，无论从远期市盈率还是现金流折现看都显得低估。但信心度下调至低，因销售额下滑5%，利润率处于13.2%，而正常水平为18-20%。
逐段跳播
2026财年对Clorox来说极其艰难。消费者变得更加注重性价比，开始购买价格更低的不知名产品。与此同时，由于关税和伊朗战争，Clorox的运营成本不断上升。
The fiscal year 2026 was extremely difficult for Clorox. Consumers have become more value-conscious and have begun to buy lesser-known products at cheaper prices. At the same time, Clorox's operating costs were increasing as a result of tariffs and the war in Iran.
净销售额下降了5%，利润降幅更大。更令人担忧的是，CEO因健康原因辞职，而他们仍在寻找继任者。那么，这一切是否意味着投资者应该远离Clorox，还是说这是一个趁其股价下跌时买入该公司的机会？
Net sales fell by 5%, and profits declined even further. Adding to the concern, the CEO resigned for health reasons , and they are still looking for a replacement. So, does all this mean that investors should run away from Clorox, or is it a buying opportunity to seize the company when its price drops?
从Clorox的营收图表中，我们可以看到它近期的困境。当然，Clorox曾是疫情期间最大的赢家之一，因为消费者纷纷抢购其产品，尤其是消毒湿巾。
We can see Clorox's recent struggles reflected in its revenue chart. Of course, Clorox was one of the biggest winners during the pandemic as consumers flocked to its products, especially its disinfectant wipes.
销售额从60亿美元跃升至75亿美元。然而，自那以后，公司便陷入了困境。销售额从75亿美元下降到67亿美元。情况在好转之前很可能会先变得更糟。
Sales jumped from $6 billion to $7.5 billion . However, since then, the company has experienced difficulties. Sales fell from $7.5 billion to $6.7 billion. Things are likely to get worse before they get better.
当人们去商店把Clorox的产品与商店自有品牌进行比较时，会发现后者价格更低，于是他们选择用自有品牌替代这些昂贵的产品，以此作为减少家庭开支的简便方法。
When people go to stores and compare Clorox products with the store's own brands, they find lower prices for the latter, so they choose to replace the expensive products as an easy way to reduce household expenses.
这种转变趋势仍在持续，我在这一品类的每家公司身上都观察到了这一点，无论是Clorox、Kimberly-Clark还是Procter & Gamble。
This shift trend has continued, and I observe it in every company in this category, whether it's Clorox, Kimberly-Clark, or Procter & Gamble.
Clorox不仅销售额在下降，利润率也在下降。过去十二个月，其营业利润率降至13.2%。甚至在疫情之前，公司的营业利润率还接近18-20%，但现在只有13%。这远低于其正常经营水平。
Not only are Clorox sales declining, but its profit margins are also declining . Its operating profit margin fell to 13.2% over the past twelve months. Even before the pandemic, the company was achieving operating profit margins closer to 18-20%, but now they are at 13%.
They are far below their normal operating levels.
另一个令人担忧的方面是人均收入的下降。它曾接近90万以上，如今已降至80万。鉴于其种种困境，如果看到Clorox宣布大规模重组并随后进行大规模裁员，我不会感到意外。
Another area of concern is the decline in revenue per employee. It was approaching over 900,000, and has dropped to 800,000. Now, given all its struggles, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw an announcement of a major restructuring from Clorox followed by massive layoffs.
总体而言，Clorox股价在2026年下跌了两位数百分比，而更广泛的标普500指数上涨了超过10%。更准确地说，Clorox股价下跌了13.4%，这一年波动非常剧烈。年初开局还算不错，股价一度冲高至近130美元，随后回落至80美元。最近几周，股价已反弹至87美元。
Overall, Clorox's stock fell by a double-digit percentage in 2026, while the broader S&P 500 index rose by more than 10%. To be more precise, Clorox stock fell by 13.4% and it was a very volatile year.
The year started well enough, with the stock price jumping to nearly $130 before dropping back to $80. In recent weeks, the price has rebounded to $87.
从市场估值倍数来看，Clorox股票正处于多年来的最低水平。从远期市盈率来看，Clorox股票目前的市盈率为14.25，这接近一段时间以来你能买到Clorox股票的最便宜价格，因此由于业绩不佳，投资者情绪已转为负面。
Based on market multiples, Clorox stock is trading at its lowest level in years. Based on the forward price-to-earnings ratio , Clorox stock is trading at 14.25, which is close to the cheapest price you could buy Clorox stock for in a while, so investor sentiment has turned negative as a result of the poor performance.
大多数持有或关注该股票的投资者，自经济重新开放以来就已意识到它的困境。我也修订了对公司未来业务的预估。为了准备今天的视频，我查看了自己的自由现金流预测，并略微下调了它们。因此，我现在对公司的估值为每股100美元，而当前市场价格为87美元。
Most investors who own or are interested in the stock have been aware of its difficulties since the economic reopening. I have also revised my estimates for the company's future business.
In preparation for today's video, I took a look at my free cash flow estimates and lowered them slightly. Therefore, I now value the company at $100 per share, while the current market price is $87.
因此，无论从预期市盈率的角度，还是从现金流折现的角度来看，这只股票似乎都被低估了。我将 Clorox 股票评为“买入”，该评级上一次更新是在2026年9月28日。今天，我将重申我对该股票的“买入”评级。
Therefore, the stock appears to be undervalued whether you look at it on a forward price-to-earnings basis or on a discounted cash flow basis . I have rated Clorox stock as a "buy" and the last update to this rating was on September 28, 2026.
Today, I will reaffirm my rating of the stock as a " buy".
不过，我会下调我的信心和确信程度。我过去对 Clorox 会是一个不错的买入机会抱有中等程度的信心和确信，但我已经开始失去这份信心。随着问题持续存在，且看不到情况何时改善的尽头，我对这家公司的信心正在减弱。因此，我会将我的确信程度和信心下调至低水平。
However, I will lower my level of confidence and conviction. I used to have a moderate level of conviction and confidence that Clorox would be a good buying opportunity, but I have started to lose that confidence.
My confidence in this company is waning as the problems continue with no end in sight as to when things will improve. Therefore, I will lower my level of conviction and confidence to a low level.
这个频道对 $CLX 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。