说话者对 CLX 看空：风险回报比为6%；在自有品牌激烈竞争下，消费家居品牌时代已在一定程度上结束；其3%至5%的销售增长目标只是通胀水平，而销售额却在下降。他预计收购将带来增长，并警告若衰退促使消费者转向自有品牌，可能危及股息，而派息削减尚未被计入。
逐段跳播
Clorox，很多人问过我这家公司，我认为它的风险回报比是6%。我认为，由于百货商店自有品牌的激烈竞争，消费家居品牌的时代在某种程度上已经结束了。他们的目标是实现3%到5%的销售增长，而这只是通胀水平，请记住这一点。他们有自由现金流，但销售额正在下滑。
Clorox, a lot of people have asked me about it, and I think it has a 6% risk-reward ratio. I think the era of consumer home brands is somewhat over due to intense competition from department store brands.
Their goal is to achieve sales growth of 3 to 5% , which is just inflation, keep that in mind. They have free cash flow , but are experiencing a decline in sales.
当管理层看到销售额下滑时会怎么做？他们会诉诸收购。花二十亿美元收购点什么来展示增长。而这通常正是卖方想甩掉的东西。他们可以派发现金股息，但如果情况恶化，比如在经济衰退中，人们更多地转向随处可见的商店自有品牌，那么这部分就会消失。股息派发的减少从来不会被考虑进去。
What happens when management sees a drop in sales? They resort to acquisition. Let's spend two billion dollars to acquire something to demonstrate growth. This is usually what the seller is trying to get rid of.
They can pay out cash dividends, but if the situation gets worse, say in a recession, and people turn more to private-label brands that are available everywhere, then that will disappear.
Dividend payout reductions are never taken into account.