CMCSA 在下跌 65% 后估值便宜,股息率超过 6%,并由每季度 46 亿美元的自由现金流支撑,媒体收入大增 25%;但鉴于其将在明年夏天前拆分为两家公司,说话者更看好 Netflix、Disney、Amazon、Google 或 Apple。
逐段跳播
好,现在我们来看名单上的第三笔收购,这次我们会更长时间地聚焦媒体和通信板块。我们来看看一家历史悠久、目前正在进行大规模重组的公司。它就是 Comcast,一家有线电视、互联网和娱乐综合企业,股票代码是 CMCS A,Trump 也收购了它价值最高达500万美元的股份。
Okay, now we move on to the third acquisition on the list, and this time we will focus on the media and communications sector for a longer period. We will take a look at a long-established company that is currently undergoing a massive restructuring.
It is Comcast, a cable, internet and entertainment conglomerate, whose stock symbol is CMCS A, in which Trump also acquired shares worth up to $5 million .
看过去十年的走势图,我们发现情况对 Comcast 股东来说极其严峻,股价较历史高点下跌了约65%,甚至在过去十年里是负回报。
Looking at the graph of the past ten years, we find that the situation has been extremely harsh on Comcast shareholders, with the share price falling by about 65% from its all-time highs, and even going negative over the past ten years.
华尔街抛弃 Comcast 的原因并不神秘。由于多年来有线电视订阅取消的现象,其传统有线电视业务的订户持续下降,而其核心的家庭宽带业务,也就是广义上的互联网业务,则持续面临来自各类服务提供商的激烈竞争,尤其是在光纤领域。
It's no secret why Wall Street abandoned Comcast. Its traditional cable television business has seen a steady decline in subscribers due to the phenomenon of cable subscription cancellations for years, while its core home broadband business, i.e., the internet in general, continues to face fierce competition from various service providers, especially in the field of fiber optics.
例如,其通信和平台服务收入在上个季度下降了超过3%。然而,尽管面临这些挑战,Comcast 仍在赚取可观的利润。仅上个季度,它就产生了46亿美元的自由现金流。
For example, its revenue from communication and platform services fell by more than 3% in the last quarter. However, despite these challenges, Comcast is making significant profits.
In the last quarter alone, it generated $4.6 billion in free cash flow.
正是这种持续的现金流支撑着市场上最具吸引力的股息派发之一,目前超过6%,达到公司有史以来的最高水平,这也使它成为纳斯达克100指数中唯一实现这一高回报的公司。
This continuous cash flow is what supports one of the most attractive dividend payouts in the market, currently exceeding 6%, the highest level the company has ever reached, and it also makes it the only company in the Nasdaq 100 index to achieve this high return.
所以,如你所见,这些是非常有吸引力的股息派发。此外,这只股票还具有很低的股息支付率和两位数的增长记录,使其很可能是一项安全的投资。
So, as you can see, these are very attractive dividend payouts. In addition, this stock features a very low dividend payout ratio and a double-digit growth record, making it a likely safe investment.
与此同时,他们的内容和体验部门正显示出强劲的复苏迹象。上个季度,媒体收入跃升了25%,直播应用“Beko”首次实现盈利。订阅用户数也达到了4800万,这在很大程度上要归功于FIFA世界杯和NBA季后赛。
At the same time , their content and experiences department is showing strong signs of recovery. In the last quarter, media revenues jumped by 25%, with the live streaming app "Beko" achieving profitability for the first time.
The number of subscribers also reached 48 million, largely thanks to the FIFA World Cup and the NBA playoffs .
因此,看起来他们的一些合作和合同正在见效,并帮助他们搭建平台。得益于《Super Mario Galaxy》等电影的成功,他们的影业部门也增长了25%,而他们的Universal主题公园继续表现良好。
Therefore, it appears that some of their partnerships and contracts are paying off and helping them build their platform. Their studio sector also grew by 25% thanks to the success of films such as "Super Mario Galaxy," while their Universal theme parks continue to perform well.
但事情在这里变得复杂了。管理层最近宣布对公司进行全面重组,这将导致其在明年夏天之前拆分为两个独立实体。NBCUniversal 和 Sky 将被分离为一家在媒体和主题公园领域运营的上市公司,而 Xfinity 的核心宽带、无线和商业互联网业务则留给另一家公司。
But things get complicated here. Management recently announced a comprehensive restructuring of the company, which will result in its split into two separate entities by next summer.
NBCUniversal and Sky will be separated into one publicly traded company operating in the media and theme park sectors, while Xfinity's core broadband, wireless, and business internet operations will be left to the other company.
现在,如你所知,在这次下跌之后股价已经变得非常低,甚至显著低于其过去五年的平均水平,也低于板块平均水平。别误解我,考虑到这只股票的优点,我完全理解为什么有人想趁着这次大幅下跌现在投资它。
但如果从更大的格局来看,我认为在大多数情况下我会更愿意投资别处。
Now, as you know, the stock price has become very low after this drop, even trading significantly lower than its average over the past five years, as well as the sector average.
Don't misunderstand me , considering the advantages of this stock, I fully understand why some people want to invest in it now with this sharp decline. But if we look at the bigger picture, I think I would prefer to invest elsewhere in most cases.
因为如果我想直接投资媒体和直播领域,在執行力和未来增长方面,我大概率会更信任 Netflix,因为它没有在进行大规模重组,并且被认为是直播领域的领导者。
Because if I wanted to make a direct investment in the field of media and live streaming, I would probably trust Netflix more in terms of execution and future growth, as it is not undergoing a huge restructuring and is considered a leader in the field of live streaming.
如果我想要一个更广泛的实体,考虑到它们极大的多样性,我会更愿意持有 Disney、Amazon、Google 甚至 Apple 这类公司的股票。
If I wanted a broader entity , I would prefer to own shares in companies like Disney, Amazon, Google, or even Apple, given their great diversity.
现在,在拆分之后,我重新评估了整个情况,并在观察这两家独立公司中是否有哪一家值得投资。但目前,我不想过多介入这件事,尤其是已经有一个庞大的投资组合在手。我也不想经历这些剧烈的变化。
Now, after the split, I have reassessed the entire situation and am seeing whether either of these two separate companies is worth investing in. But at the moment, I don't want to get too involved in this, especially with a huge investment portfolio already in place.
I don't want to go through these radical changes either.
所以,遗憾的是,Netflix 将占据我们目前排名的最后一位,不过,正如我所说,我完全理解此刻选择这样一家公司的吸引力。
So, unfortunately, Netflix will occupy the last place in our ranking so far, although, as I mentioned, I fully understand the appeal of choosing such a name at this moment.
而我会把 Comcast 下调一位,以与之对应。
while I would lower Comcast one place to match .