因并购传闻在31.62处形成价格底部并隐含46的目标价，短期看多CMG。
逐段跳播
一个荒谬的想法登上了头条，《金融时报》头版暗示星巴克现在正考虑收购Chipotle。这或许是我能想象到的最愚蠢的绝望形式之一，但我要说，如果这件事发生，很可能对这两只股票中的一只非常迅速且有用。
Well, a ridiculous idea has made headlines, with the Financial Times front page suggesting that Starbucks is now considering acquiring Chipotle. This is perhaps one of the most foolish forms of despair I can imagine, but I say if it happens, it is likely to be very and quickly useful to one of these two stocks.
Chipotle 根本算不上便宜的公司。如今，随着 Chipotle Trails 的出现，其股价自 2024 年增长高峰期以来已大幅下跌，而且还有这种疯狂的扩张计划正在推进。
Chipotle is not a cheap company at all. Now, its stock has fallen considerably since its peak growth phase in 2024 with the arrival of Chipotle Trails , and you have this insane expansion in the works.
我很喜欢 Chipotle。我认为他们的产品很棒。我认为他们整体上非常优秀。但他们的评级已经暴跌了约 60%，这极低。我的意思是，这家公司的市值从接近一千亿美元跌到了约 420 亿美元。
I love Chipotle. I think they have a great product. I think they are very good overall. But their rating has collapsed by about 60%, which is extremely low. I mean, this company went from a value of nearly one hundred billion dollars to about 42 billion dollars.
好。这就是星巴克的情况。现在，如果我们看 Chipotle，这里的数字至少更好一些。好吧？我们仍然有增长。增长 9.3%。然而，总运营费用增长了 12.7%。所以 Chipotle 的净利润实际上在下降。
Good. This is the Starbucks situation. Now, if we look at Chipotle, the numbers here are at least better. Good? We still have growth. Growth of 9.3%. However, total operating expenses increased by 12.7%. So Chipotle's net income is actually declining.
随着市场被其餐厅饱和覆盖，Chipotle 几乎已经达到了增长峰值。它无处不在。
Chipotle has almost reached its peak growth as the markets have become saturated with its restaurants. It's everywhere.
比如说，我真的不认为我们会在星巴克看到 Chipotle 那样的排队场面。我的意思是，也许你可以在 Chipotle 看到一些星巴克品牌的滴滤咖啡。如果他们能以 5 美元卖给你高利润率的滴滤咖啡，这可能不是个坏主意，但我不认为你很快就能在 Chipotle 喝到自己的精品拿铁。
For example, I really don't think we'll ever see Chipotle queues at Starbucks. I mean, maybe you can see some Starbucks-branded drip coffee in Chipotle. It might not be a bad idea if they could sell you drip coffee with a high profit margin for $5, but I don't think you'll be getting your own gourmet latte at Chipotle anytime soon.
如果那真的发生，对这家很可能被合并的公司来说是一个更悲观的信号。因为当你开始为那些拿最低工资、而且非常擅长做一件事的人增加不同的工作内容时，事情会变得非常复杂。比如把米饭放到墨西哥卷饼上。
再把豆子放上去。你现在却想培训一个放米饭和豆子的人给你做一杯精致的拿铁。这不会那么容易行得通，好吧？不同类型的人，不同的心态，这里的一切都不一样。
If that happens, it is a more pessimistic sign for this company that is likely to be merged. Because it's very complicated when you start adding different lines of work for people who work for minimum wage and are really good at doing one thing.
Like putting rice on a burrito. Put the beans on it. You now want to train a rice and bean person to make you a fancy latte. It's not going to work that easily, okay? A different kind of person, a different mentality, everything is different here.
不过，我认为这对 Chipotle 的股价可能是正面的。我认为它可能对 Chipotle 股价有利的原因是，要说服股东去做像合并 Chipotle 和星巴克这样荒谬的事，你必须为 Chipotle 支付一个诱人的溢价。
However, I think it could be positive for Chipotle stock. The reason I believe it might be positive for Chipotle stock is that to convince shareholders to do something as ridiculous as merging Chipotle and Starbucks, you would have to pay a tempting premium for Chipotle.
因此，短期内，这笔交易为 Chipotle 股价设定了一个技术性底部，并且在此之上还有上行潜力。比如说，如果我快速看一下，我想找一个好的技术点位。我发现很难画出来……我们在这里画一条灰色的小线。
我在这里的周线图上得到了……这个。我这里有一个顶点。这个位置在 31.62 的水平，大致就是我们目前所处的位置。我有一个顶点，我有一个顶点，我这里有一个顶点。我们在这里摆弄这些数字，你可以看到这几乎是一个最低点。
是不是这样？最低点，最低点，很混乱。这里是一条小小的、凌乱的灰线，但我认为这笔交易目前为这只股票设定了 31.62 的底部，直到交易失败为止，因为这是个非常愚蠢的主意。
Therefore, in the short term, this deal has set a technical floor for Chipotle stock and has upside potential beyond that. For example, if I take a quick look, I'm trying to find a good technical point.
I am finding it very difficult to draw... Let's draw a small gray line here. I got...this on the weekly timeframe here. I have a summit here. This is at a level of 31.62, which is roughly where we stand now.
I have a summit, I have a summit, I have a summit here. We're playing with the numbers here and you can see that it's almost a minimum. Isn't that so? Minimum, minimum, it's chaotic.
It's a small, messy gray line here , but I think this deal is setting a floor at 31.62 for this stock right now until the deal fails because it's a very stupid idea.
但是，如果这笔交易达成，我实际上认为价格最有可能接近 46 美元。当然，没有任何保证，这也不是个人理财建议，但我相信，为了让 Chipotle 股东同意这件事，他们需要每股 46 美元的补偿。这是我的猜测。那将代表大约 43% 的溢价。
But, if the deal goes through, I actually think it will most likely be at a price closer to $46. There are no guarantees, of course, and this is not personal financial advice , but I believe that in order for Chipotle shareholders to agree to this, they need compensation of $46 per share.
That would be my guess. That would represent a premium of approximately 43%.
现在，星巴克为了做这件事将不得不借入大量债务，因为他们已经破产了。因此，他们将不得不卖出股票并发行债务。所以，对星巴克悲观，对 Chipotle 乐观，而对两者合并后的整体悲观。
Now, Starbucks will have to borrow a lot of debt to do this because they are bankrupt. Therefore, they will have to sell shares and issue debt. So, pessimistic about Starbucks , optimistic about Chipotle, and pessimistic about the whole thing combined.
现在，星巴克的 CEO，这里就有意思了，实际上正是 Chipotle 的前任 CEO。所以，看起来他太想念 Chipotle 了，以至于想在他们中国业务失败之后做一件不可思议的事，而他当初被聘用正是为了帮忙把他们从中国业务的困境中解救出来。
他需要尝试做点什么，我觉得他无聊了，所以他们在某种程度上认为这是个好主意。干脆把我们以前工作过的公司接管过来吧。
Now, the CEO of Starbucks, and here's where it gets interesting, is actually the former CEO of Chipotle. So, it seems he misses Chipotle so much that he wants to do something incredible after their failure in China, which he was hired for, you know, to help get them out of.
He needs to try to do something and I think he's bored, so they think this is a good idea in a way . Let's just take over the company I used to work for .
观察点
这个频道对 $CMG 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。