$COHR

Coherent是AI基础设施的首选标的:数据中心/通信业务约占收入的75-80%;磷化铟激光器原始产能限制增长,该产能同比增长80%,目标在未来几个月内翻倍。它有望凭借未来几个季度的收入引领共封装光学,并受益于800G向1.6T的升级。

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The Motley Fool发布 2026-10-19 · 11 段内容
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11 段内容
16:0921:17

今天我们要谈的最后一家公司,也是我最喜欢的股票,是一家叫 Coherent 的公司。我之前讲过人工智能的价值链。它涵盖从半导体到网络和物理基础设施,一直到云计算、大语言模型和软件应用。

因此,在每一个类别里你都能找到很多公司。Coherent 就位于那个至关重要的网络连接层。

The last company we will talk about today, my favorite stock, is a company called Coherent. I have previously spoken about the value chain of artificial intelligence. It includes everything from semiconductors to networks and physical infrastructure, all the way to cloud computing, big language models and software applications.

Therefore, you can find many companies within each of these individual categories. Coherent is located in that vital network connectivity layer.

因此,Coherent 是又一家充当连接纽带的大型公司,把计算机处理转换成超高速、低延迟的光信号。所以,它的商业模式同样依赖于掌控整个物理技术栈,从在实验室里生长原始复合半导体晶体,到制造为现代基础设施很大一部分提供动力的高速光收发器。

因此,Coherent 拥有专门生产所谓工程化衬底的工厂。这包括磷化铟、碳化硅和砷化镓。它所做的本质上就是把这些原始芯片变成激光引擎。因此,它通过批量销售器件来产生收入。他们的元件必须在客户系统中经过数月甚至数年的专门设计、适配和认证。

这带来了高度可预测的经常性收入流,以及一种经常性采购的动态。

Thus, Coherent is another one of those major companies that acts as a link, translating, you know, computer processing into ultrafast, low-latency optical signals. So, their business model again relies on controlling the entire physical stack, from growing raw composite semiconductor crystals in the lab to building the high-speed optical transceivers that power much of the modern infrastructure.

Therefore, Coherent has specialized factories that produce what are known as engineered substrates. This includes indium phosphide, silicon carbide, and gallium arsenide. What it does is essentially turn these raw chips into laser motors.

Therefore, it generates revenue through volume-based device sales. Their components must be specifically designed, adapted, and qualified within customer systems over months or years.

This creates highly predictable recurring revenue streams, as well as a recurring buying dynamic, you know.

Coherent,尤其是在过去两年里,一直在积极剥离非核心资产,以加倍聚焦于其数据中心和通信业务。这是我们在这一领域普遍看到的情况。Coherent 也不例外。因此,其数据中心和通信板块约占其总收入的 75% 到 80%。

是的,这是目前业务的大头。其余业务服务于工业制造激光器,比如精密切割、电动汽车电池和消费科技。但大部分都集中在数据中心业务上。

Coherent, particularly over the past two years, has been aggressively shedding its non-core assets to redouble its focus on its data center and communications business. This is something we have seen widely within this field.

Kohernet was no exception to that. Therefore, its data center and communications sector represents approximately 75 to 80% of its total revenue. Yes, that's the bulk of the work at the moment.

The rest of its work serves industrial manufacturing lasers, such as precision cutting, electric vehicle batteries, and consumer technology. But most of it is concentrated in data center businesses.

Coherent 也已将战略转向销售集成光学平台的基础设施。例如,它有“Photonlink”平台。它把激光器、光学元件和光纤集成到一个即用型系统中,提供给客户。

Coherent has also shifted its strategy towards selling infrastructure for integrated optical platforms. For example, it has the "Photonlink" platform. It integrates lasers, optics, and fibers into a single, ready-to-use system for its customers.

还有一点值得关注:随着 AI 组件超越传统铜缆,它们正转向所谓的共封装光学和近封装光学,也就是把这些激光光纤直接安装在同一个硅衬底上,与计算转换器放在一起。当然,你还有 Nvidia 等大公司的支持,它们是 Coherent 增长故事中的关键要素。

Also of interest: as AI assemblies move beyond traditional copper cables, they are moving towards what are known as co-encapsulated optics and near-encapsulated optics, where these laser optical fibers are mounted directly onto the same silicon substrate as the computing converter.

And of course, you have the support of major companies like Nvidia and others, which are key elements in Coherent's growth story.

管理层在近期的财报电话会议上表示,他们数据中心收入的首要上限——正如我所说,这部分现在构成了他们业务的大头——不是组装或测试产能,而是内部原始激光器的生产。因此,Coherent 目前生产的磷化铟激光器比一年前多了 80%,并且目前有望在未来几个月内将内部产量翻倍。

而且我们继续看到,它计划再翻一番,以满足其持续的超高速增长周期。

Now, management stated in recent earnings calls that the primary ceiling for their data center revenues, which now, as I noted, constitutes the bulk of their business, is not assembly or testing capacity, but rather internal raw laser production.

Therefore, Coherent is producing 80% more indium phosphide lasers than it did a year ago, and is currently on track to double its internal production in the next few months. And we continue to see that it plans to double that again to meet its ongoing super-growth cycle.

这是一家业务布局非常多元的公司。他们通过一个全球性的工业制造激光器、先进工程和材料组合来产生收入。截至 2026 财年,他们的收入基数约为 70 亿美元,所以他们在资本上有很好的缓冲。

This is a company with a very diverse corporate footprint. They generate revenue through a global portfolio of industrial manufacturing lasers, advanced engineering, and materials.

Their revenue base is about $7 billion as of fiscal year 2026, so they have a good capital cushion there.

Coherent 也有望成为在即将到来的共封装光学架构变革中率先行动的公司之一。管理层表示,他们计划在未来几个季度开始从这项业务中产生实质性收入。这总体上会让他们处于行业曲线的前沿。这是一项非常有意思的工作。

Coherent is also poised to be one of the first companies to move in the upcoming architectural transformation of co-encapsulated optics. Management said they plan to start generating tangible revenue from this business in the coming quarters.

This will generally put them at the forefront of the industry curve. It's a really interesting piece of work.

我还想指出另一点:AI 行业正期待从 800 G 光网络向下一代 1.6 T 收发器进行工程过渡。在 1.6 T 这种网络速度下,标准数据中心单元的功耗有可能导致集群严重过热,除非运营商使用“Coherent”的磷化铟调制器。因此,我们继续看到这项业务带来的增长。

The other thing I would point out is that the AI industry is looking forward to an engineering transition from 800 gigabits optical networks to the next generation of 1.6 terabits transceivers.

At this network speed of 1.6 terabits, the power consumption of a standard data center unit threatens to cause clusters to overheat significantly unless operators use indium phosphide modifiers from "Coherent".

Therefore, we continue to see this growth from this business.

收入增长显著。他们的订单积压量很大。我认为他们总体上不会受到我们在该行业看到的许多更广泛信贷冲击的影响。当然,他们的客户中有一些世界上最富有的公司。

Revenue growth is significant. Their backlog of orders is large. I think they are generally protected from many of the wider credit fallout we have seen in this sector. And of course, they work with some of the world's richest companies as their clients.

因此,Coherent 是 AI 基础设施建设板块中另一只值得考虑的股票,尤其是在审视该基础设施瓶颈的时候。

Therefore, Coherent is another stock to consider within the AI infrastructure building sector, specifically when looking at the bottleneck of that infrastructure.

观察点

共封装光学业务带来的实质性收入
未来几个季度开始出现实质性的共封装光学收入
未来几个季度财报
支持看涨论点
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