$COHR · Verified Investing · 2026-11-02
COHR 急跌后横盘整理，形成看跌旗形；过去一周内已四次触及 2025 年 4 月 4 日的趋势线，说话者预计将出现跌破（尚未确认），并跌至 185。他认为 195–185 是斐波那契 618 支撑位，可在此更便宜地买入，并等待财报；若业绩良好，股价可能反弹，期权权利金也应会变便宜。
逐段跳播
今天在我们深入讲“Delta”之前，我要看的是Coherent，也就是COHR，一只半导体股票的一个形态。Luton，你以前交易过它吗？我写过关于它的文章。我不知道你有没有交易过。股票太多了，我甚至都记不住。
today what I'm going to look at before we delve into "Delta" is a setup on Coherent, COHR, a semiconductor stock . Have you ever traded it before, Luton? I have written articles about him.
I don't know if you traded it. There are so many stocks that I don't even remember them.
好了，各位。我今天看的是“Coherent”，好吗？为什么呢？因为他们会在稍后或者明天、周二之前公布财报。现在，关于近期的价格走势，它们出现了大幅下跌，并且正在经历一些横盘整理。
各位，这里的这个价格走势，在我看来，是一个向下的价格走势。即便如此，大幅下跌加上横盘整理，可能是在形成一个看跌旗形形态，这也继续表明价格有向下趋势。
Okay, guys. I'm looking at "Coherent" today, okay? Why is that? Because they announce their reports later or tomorrow before Tuesday. Now, regarding the recent price movement , they have seen a sharp decline and are experiencing some sideways consolidation.
This price movement here, guys, is, to me, a downward price movement . Even so, a sharp drop with sideways consolidation could be the formation of a bearish flag pattern , which also continues to give an idea of the price trending downwards.
那么，现在是买入“Cool”还是“Boot”的正确时机吗？我打算在这里考虑买入一个“bot”，因为正如我提到的，价格看起来要跌破。
Now, is this the right time to buy "Cool" or " Boot"? I'm going to look at buying a "bot" here because, as I mentioned, the price looks like it's going to break down.
不过，我想让你们看看这里的这条白色趋势线，好吗？这条白色趋势线是从2025年4月4日开始的，如你们所见，当价格接近这个水平时，它会找到买家和支撑。去年11月初，价格跌到了这里的这个水平并反弹，自那以后，这条趋势线已经有一年多没有回到过这个位置了。
然而，看看最近的价格走势，我们在过去一周内已经四次触及这条趋势线。所以，触及这么多次而价格又持续下跌，我认为这条趋势线会被跌破，好吗？
However, I want you to look at this white trend line here, okay? Now, this white trend line is from April 4, 2025, and as you can see, as the price approaches this level, it finds buyers and support.
The price dropped to this level here in early November of last year and bounced back , and since then we haven't returned to it for over a year for this trend line. However , looking at recent price action, we have touched this trend line four times during the past week.
So, with so many touches and the price continuing to fall, I think this trend line will break, okay?
现在，考虑到这一点，基于这个形态，我们是要买入看跌期权还是看涨期权？我想再等一等。我想等待这件事的确认。如果Coherent公布良好的财报业绩，价格可能会从这条趋势线向上反弹，好吗？
Now, with this in mind, are we looking to buy a put option or a call option based on this setup? I want to wait a bit. I want to wait for confirmation of this matter. The price might bounce back from this trend line upwards if Coherent announces good earnings results, okay?
那么，我试图买入的区域在哪里？好的，首先，我试图结合多个因素，好吗？这是一笔只依赖一个因素的交易，也就是价格在趋势线上企稳，但我们还没有突破的确认，好吗？
Now, where is the area where I am trying to buy? Okay, firstly, I'm trying to combine multiple factors , okay? This is a trade that depends on only one factor, which is the price stabilizing on the trend line, but we don't have confirmation of the breakout yet, okay?
现在，因此，我们可以保持耐心，看看这里的这条深蓝色线。这里有一个枢轴位在185。现在，如果价格下跌并跌破这条趋势线，我相信价格会跌到185水平并找到支撑。就我个人而言，我是一个有耐心的交易者，更喜欢拿到更便宜的价格，尤其是在我买入任何东西之前。
Now, with that, we can be patient and look at this dark blue line here. There is a pivot level here at 185. Now, if the price drops and breaks this trend line, I am confident that the price will drop to the 185 level and find support.
Personally, I am a patient trader and prefer to get cheaper prices, especially before I buy anything.
所以，不过，如果我们等待185这个枢轴区域，我们还有斐波那契618水平。如果你想和我一起做这个，你可以在4月4日的低点这里安装这个工具。安装好后，我们会把它向上拉，并锁定在441.28的峰值水平。
这会给我们一个介于两者之间的水平区间。不过，如果我们现在看这个价格走势，我们会发现618水平在195到185的区间内。所以，在那个区域，我打算在这个多因素支撑区以这个更便宜的价格买入Coherent。
So, however, if we wait for the pivot zone 185, we also have the Fibonacci level 618. If you want to do this with me, you can install the tool here at the April 4 low. Once it is installed, we will pull it upwards and lock it at the peak level of 441.28.
This will give us a range of levels in between. However, if we now look at this price action, we find the 618 level here in the range of 195 to 185. So, in that area, I am looking to buy Coherent at this cheaper price in this multi-factor support zone.
所以，目前我需要看看期权链的设置，看看我们能否找到一个行权价中心，或者是否必须等到财报结果公布后再看。
So , for now, I'll need to see the chain settings, and whether we can find a financial center, or if we have to wait and see until the earnings results are released.
因为标的资产是Coherent股票，好吗？如果我的delta是0.5，而股票变动，Coherent大约会给我们的合约增加50美分，好吗？如果“Coherent”的delta是0.2，而股票变动，我的合约大约会增加20美分。
是的。但这是直接成比例的。大约一美元。所以，如果delta是1，而“Coherent”上涨一美元，那么我的合约就会增加一美元。
Since the underlying asset is a Coherent stock, okay? If my delta is at 0.5 and the stock moves, Coherent will add about 50 cents to my contract, okay? If my delta for "Coherent" is at 0.2 and the stock moves, I will add approximately 20 cents to my contract.
Yes. But it's directly proportional. Approximately one dollar. So, if the delta is one and the " Coherent" rises by a dollar, then one dollar will be added to my contract .
好了，我现在要进入期权系列看看Coherus。它已经出现了。不过，我们已经在看185到195的水平了。嗯，就看一下这个，隐含波动率在54%的滑动位置。所以，我们目前已经走了一半，但随着我们接近他们明天的财报，它还会继续上升。
所以，不过，我们也看到了一种方向上的分歧。看跌期权和看涨期权的未平仓合约是1.60。因此，这是一个看跌的读数，表明卖出期权多于买入期权。但当我们读到未平仓合约时，那是旧消息了。
这在一定程度上取决于周五的收盘。现在，仅今天，有更大的交易量进来。所以，交易量意味着新资金，而且今天进来的买入期权多于看跌期权。所以，自上周五以来，我们有一些看跌情绪，但今天我们得到更多看涨情绪。
因此，其他交易者可能会在这条趋势线上看到Coherus，并认为它从这里反弹并正在向上走。所以，不过，我们仍然没有昂贵的环境，而且趋势彼此冲突。当我们来到图表上时，我们在那个水平上仍然只有一个因素。
我真的很期待价格跌到185-195水平，然后每股收益会企稳，这样隐含波动率就会下降，这些权利金作为买方入场就会变得更便宜。
Okay, I'm going to jump into the series now to take a look at Coherus. She has appeared. However, we are already looking at the 185 to 195 level. Um, just to look at this, the implied volatility is at the 54 percent slide.
So, we are halfway there at the moment, but it will continue to increase as we approach their report tomorrow. So , however, we are also witnessing a kind of split in direction.
The open interest for the put and call option is at 1.60. Therefore, this is a bearish reading indicating that there are more sell options than buy options. But when we read about open interest, that's old news.
This depends somewhat on Friday's closing. Now, today only, there is a larger trading volume coming. So, trading volume means new money, and there are more buy options than put options coming in today.
So, since last Friday, we've had some bearish sentiment, but today we're getting more bullish sentiment. Therefore, other traders may see Coherus on this trend line and believe that it bounced from here and is heading upwards .
So, however, we still do not have an expensive environment and trends are clashing with each other. And when we come to the graph as well, we are still only at one factor at that level.
I'm really looking forward to the price dropping to the 185-195 level and then the earnings per share will stabilize , so there will be a breakdown in implied volatility and these premiums will become cheaper to enter as a buyer.
所以，这就是今天计划的要点。我们会等到Coherus在收盘后公布财报。一旦他们公布，我们可以重新查看图表，以确定是在那条趋势线上买入还是卖出期权。
So, this is the essence of the plan for today. We will wait until Coherus announces its results after the closing bell. Once they get there, we can revisit the chart to determine whether to enter a buy or sell option on that trend line.
我们今天选择不交易Coherent股票，因为他们明天要公布财报。股票期权的定价基于财报，而风险溢价在财报后会大幅下降，所以我们会等待。但在财报结果公布后，我们可以重新查看图表和期权系列，看看是否有更好的位置。
We chose not to trade Coherent stock today because they are announcing their earnings tomorrow. Stock options are priced based on the report, and the risk premium drops sharply after earnings, so we'll wait.
But after the earnings results are released , we can revisit the chart and the options series to see a better position.