$COIN · Schwab Network · 2026-10-29

Okay. So, let's take a look at Coinbase. Interestingly, Coinbase's share price is rising. We are one percent above. Let's see why this is happening.

Third-quarter revenue was $1.22 billion. This is fairly consistent with expectations. The transaction generated revenue of $590 million. This is better than expectations of 575 million.

Revenue from subscriptions and services amounted to $570 million. This is also better than the estimate. Adjusted EBITDA was $332.9 million, which well exceeded expectations. We had an estimate of $282.9 million.

This is the 15th consecutive quarter where positive adjusted EBITDA has been achieved. Net income is $719 million. Adjusted net income came in at $78 million.

Their trading volume was $134.5 billion. The market share of crypto trading volume reached 10.7 percent. This marks a doubling in the year-over-year period and four consecutive quarters of share growth.

For the fourth quarter, Coinbase says it expects to generate $550 million to $630 million in revenue from subscriptions and services. The estimate was $615 million , so it's a little above the midpoint.

Revenue from transactions so far in the quarter is about $165 million and they lowered their full-year 2024 adjusted expense guidance to $4.15 billion from $4.3 billion.

The company also stated that they noticed some slow trading due to market conditions , which they said were somewhat weak during the quarter.

But KJ, I want to come to you because now we have turned the corner. We are now down 1 percent, because these spending guidelines have been lowered, but their growth continues.

They are also talking about their prediction market, which has grown at an 82 percent quarterly compound annual growth rate and surpassed $200 million in annual revenue in the third quarter.

So, what's so good about this report? What are you feeling and what things seem to you to be warning signs that might come up during the call ?

Well, it seems like their prediction market operations are gaining some momentum, but it's at around $200 million in annual revenue. It seems like that's what they're looking at at the moment.

But they are still seeing some slowdown in their business' main source of income, namely trading activities.

Personally, to me, the fourth quarter subscription and services revenue guidance seems like a pretty wide range. I mean, you're talking about a difference of about $80 million, between $550 million and $630 million.

Quite a big gap. This could be a little more or less, depending on which analyst you look at. I think some market participants might think that's a little bit off , but that's a much larger forecast and that's because obviously their overall business is a little bit more volatile here.

This could be a little more or less, depending on which analyst you look at. I think some market participants might think that's a little bit off, but that's a much larger forecast and that's because obviously their overall business is a little bit more volatile here.

But in my opinion, prediction markets could be a big help to them in the future, if they are able to exploit them financially. Crypto trading is great, but its appeal has naturally diminished somewhat with the advent of perpetual futures in the market. 24-hour trading systems are being added to formal exchanges.

There are many different areas where I doubt Coinbase will be able to compete with other brokerage houses, as they have a range of products that allow them to handle not only crypto trading, but also other investments all in one place.

I think that's what consumers are basically looking for.

Okay, when analyzing these numbers we see that Coinbase is now down 1.75%

while Coinbase fell 1%.